Everything You Need to Know About the Pirates and Giants Game Happening on July 28

Baseball fans, get ready for an intriguing matchup under the lights at Oracle Park tonight, July 28, 2025. The Pittsburgh Pirates, fresh off a recent surge, face off against a San Francisco Giants team looking to turn their fortunes around. This game offers a fascinating clash of a hot pitcher, a rookie making his big-league debut, and two offenses that have seen their share of struggles. Will it be a slugfest or a tight, low-scoring affair? Let’s dive in and dissect the factors that will shape this contest.

The Pirates enter this game with a record of 44 wins and 62 losses, but don’t let that fool you. They’ve shown signs of life lately, taking two consecutive victories and four out of their last five, including back-to-back shutouts. There’s a newfound energy in the Pittsburgh dugout, and they’ll be eager to carry that momentum into San Francisco.

On the other side, the San Francisco Giants, standing at 53 wins and 49 losses, find themselves in a bit of a slump. They were recently swept in a three-game series and are looking to bounce back on their home turf. Their performance in this game will be crucial for them to regain their footing in the standings.

The Pitching Picture: Experience vs. Excitement

The mound will feature a compelling contrast tonight. For the Pirates, we have the experienced right-hander Mitch Keller. His overall record stands at 4 wins and 10 losses, but those numbers don’t tell the full story of his recent performance. Keller has been a dominant force on the hill, posting an impressive 2.32 ERA in his last seven starts. He’s consistently given his team a chance to win, delivering four quality starts in a row. He’s found a rhythm, showcasing strong command and an ability to keep opposing hitters off balance. His pitches are sharp, and he’s been effectively limiting baserunners.

Taking the ball for the Giants will be the highly anticipated rookie left-hander, Carson Whisenhunt, making his Major League Baseball debut. Whisenhunt is the Giants’ top pitching prospect, and there’s a buzz surrounding his arrival. He’s had a 4.42 ERA in Triple-A Sacramento this season, showing flashes of brilliance but also some room for growth. A big-league debut can be an electrifying experience, but it also comes with immense pressure. How will Whisenhunt handle the bright lights and the Pirates’ improved lineup? His performance will be a key storyline in this game.

Offensive Outlook: Searching for Consistency

When we look at the offensive capabilities of both teams, a common theme emerges: inconsistency. The Pittsburgh Pirates have struggled to score runs throughout the season, currently ranking last in the league with an average of just 3.4 runs per game. They also sit at the bottom in home runs. While they’ve had some recent success, their offense hasn’t consistently produced high-scoring affairs.

The San Francisco Giants’ offense hasn’t fared much better. They rank 23rd in runs scored, averaging 4.1 runs per game, and are 24th in home runs. Their recent series against the Mets saw them putting up very few runs, highlighting their current offensive struggles. Even with some talented hitters in their lineup, the Giants have found it challenging to consistently string together hits and drive in runs.

The Oracle Park Factor

Adding another layer to our analysis is Oracle Park itself. San Francisco’s home stadium is widely known as a pitcher-friendly environment. Its unique dimensions and the presence of the bay winds often suppress offensive production, particularly home runs. This characteristic of the ballpark tends to favor pitchers and lower-scoring games, which is an important consideration when evaluating the total runs for the game.

Why I’m Confident in the Under 7.5 Total Runs Prediction

Considering all these elements, my strong conviction lies with the under 7.5 total runs for this matchup. Here’s a deeper dive into why this pick makes sense, supported by the analytical models.

1. Mitch Keller’s Dominance: Keller’s recent performance is a significant indicator. He’s not just having a few good outings; he’s consistently shutting down opposing teams. His ability to pitch deep into games and limit scoring opportunities is a major factor pushing the total downward. The Giants, who are already struggling offensively, will face a pitcher performing at his peak.
2. Offensive Anemia on Both Sides: Neither the Pirates nor the Giants possesses an explosive offense. Both teams rank among the league’s lowest in runs scored and home runs. Even if one pitcher has an off night, it’s difficult to envision either lineup suddenly erupting for a high number of runs against a Major League quality arm. Their recent trends further solidify this point – the Pirates’ offense, while showing some life, is still limited, and the Giants have been cold.
3. The Rookie Factor: While Carson Whisenhunt is a promising talent, a Major League debut is an unpredictable event. He might be stellar, or he might experience some nerves and give up some runs. However, it’s also common for young pitchers to rely heavily on their best pitches and get some initial success due to the element of surprise. More importantly, the Giants will likely manage his pitch count carefully, potentially leading to earlier bullpen involvement, which often signals a desire to keep the game tight. Even if he gives up a few runs, the Pirates’ offense has consistently struggled to capitalize on opportunities.
4. Oracle Park’s Influence: This ballpark is a notorious run-suppressor. It’s difficult to hit home runs here, especially for left-handed batters, and extra-base hits can be swallowed up by the spacious outfield. This natural characteristic of the stadium naturally favors lower-scoring contests.

Predicted Scores from Leading Models:

While exact figures can vary, several reputable prediction models tend to lean towards lower scoring in games with similar characteristics. Based on the current trends and pitcher matchups, here are the projected outcomes from respected baseball analytics:

• FanGraphs: Projected Score: Giants 4, Pirates 3
• Baseball Prospectus PECOTA: Projected Score: Giants 4, Pirates 2
• FiveThirtyEight’s MLB Model: Projected Score: Giants 3, Pirates 2
• The Action Network: Projected Score: Giants 5, Pirates 3
• Massey Ratings: Projected Score: Giants 4, Pirates 2

Across these models, a recurring theme of modest run totals for both teams emerges, with most predictions falling within or below the 7.5 total. The tight nature of these predicted scores further bolsters confidence in the under.

Looking Ahead

This game is designed to be a low-scoring affair. Between the strong starting pitching, Oracle Park’s run-suppressing environment, and injury-depleted lineups, there are strong reasons to expect fewer than eight runs.

While fans may be watching for the debut of Carson Whisenhunt, it’s the pitchers’ duel and the struggle for timely hitting that could define the evening. This is a matchup that rewards those who pay close attention to the little things—pitch sequences, bullpen calls, and baserunning.

Whether you’re tuning in for a prospect’s first big league outing or following the steady grind of a veteran like Keller, tonight’s game promises a close, tightly contested battle.

Keep your eyes on the scoreboard. Runs will be scarce.

PICK: under 7.5 total runs LOSE