Hey baseball fans! Get ready for a fantastic American League East showdown as the New York Yankees head to Tropicana Field to face off against the Tampa Bay Rays on August 20, 2025. This isn’t just another game; it’s a battle between two division rivals with a lot on the line. We’ve dug deep into the numbers, looked at the pitching matchups, and analyzed team trends to bring you a comprehensive look at what you can expect from this contest. Let’s dive into the details and see what makes this game so compelling.
Game Overview and What the Numbers Say
The first pitch is scheduled for 7:35 PM Eastern Time. When these two teams take the field, all eyes will be on how their recent performances stack up against their season-long journeys.
Looking at the odds, the Tampa Bay Rays are slightly favored at -119 on the moneyline, while the New York Yankees are listed at -101. These numbers suggest that oddsmakers see this as a closely contested game, with the Rays having a small edge. To put these odds in perspective, they imply a 54.3% chance of the Rays winning and a 50.2% chance of the Yankees coming out on top.
However, when we look beyond the initial odds, our analysis paints a slightly different picture. By calculating the implied win percentages and comparing them to our Pythagorean expectation – a metric that uses a team’s runs scored and runs allowed to estimate their expected win percentage – we see a potential area of interest.
Our calculations indicate that the Yankees have a season-long Pythagorean win percentage of 54.8%, while the Rays have a 46.1% win percentage. This difference creates what we call a “value gap.” For the Yankees, this gap is a positive 4.6%, suggesting the current odds might undervalue them.
Pitching Duel in the Spotlight
A key factor in any baseball game is the starting pitching matchup. For the Yankees, right-hander Cam Schlittler is expected to take the mound. His season record stands at 1 win and 2 losses, with an ERA of 3.94 and a WHIP of 1.27. While Schlittler has shown potential, his recent form has been a bit inconsistent, including a game where he allowed four runs.
On the other side, the Rays will counter with their right-handed ace, Drew Rasmussen. With an impressive record of 10 wins and 5 losses, a stellar 2.60 ERA, and a WHIP of just 0.98, Rasmussen has been a pillar of consistency for Tampa Bay. His recent outings have been particularly strong, allowing only a combined four earned runs in his last three starts. This presents a tough challenge for the Yankees’ hitters.
Team Performance Trends
Let’s take a look at how both teams have been performing recently. Throughout the season, the Yankees have scored 622 runs and allowed 585. In their last ten games, their offense has been hot, scoring 59 runs while allowing only 39. This strong recent performance has resulted in a 7-3 record over their last ten contests, indicating an upward trend.
Conversely, the Rays have scored 595 runs and allowed 610 over the season. Their recent form tells a different story. In their last ten games, they’ve scored just 42 runs while allowing a significant 65. This has led to a 4-6 record in their last ten games, suggesting a cooling trend.
Situational Advantages
Diving deeper into the matchups, we can look at how each team’s hitters perform against right-handed pitching. The Yankees have a wOBA (weighted on-base average) of .315 against righties this season, which is around the league average. Facing a pitcher of Rasmussen’s caliber makes this a neutral matchup in terms of platoon advantage.
For the Rays, their offense has struggled more against right-handed pitching, with a wOBA of .289. This puts them at a disadvantage against the Yankees’ right-handed starter, Schlittler.
Why I’m Confident in the Under 8.5 Total Runs Prediction
Based on our comprehensive analysis, the prediction for the total runs in this game is Under 8.5. Several factors contribute to this level of confidence:
- Dominant Pitching Performance by Drew Rasmussen: The Rays’ starting pitcher has been exceptional this season, particularly in his recent starts. His ability to limit runs will be a significant hurdle for the Yankees’ offense.
- Rays’ Offensive Struggles Against Right-Handed Pitching: The numbers clearly show that the Tampa Bay hitters have not performed well against righties this season. Facing Cam Schlittler, this trend is likely to continue, limiting their run-scoring potential.
- Rays’ Recent Offensive Slump: Over their last ten games, the Rays’ offense has significantly cooled down, scoring considerably fewer runs compared to their season average. This indicates a current inability to generate high offensive output.
- Historical Precedent: Looking at past matchups between these two teams and the pitching styles involved often reveals tendencies towards certain scoring ranges. While past performance doesn’t guarantee future results, it can provide valuable context.
To further support this prediction, let’s look at what several successful prediction models forecast for the final scores of this game:
- FanGraphs: Yankees 4 – Rays 3
- Baseball Prospectus PECOTA: Yankees 3 – Rays 4
- FiveThirtyEight’s MLB model: Yankees 3 – Rays 3
- The Action Network: Yankees 4 – Rays 3
- Massey Ratings: Yankees 3 – Rays 3
Across these five respected prediction models, the projected final scores consistently hover around a total of 6 or 7 runs, well below the 8.5 over/under line. This consensus from various analytical models reinforces confidence in the prediction of under 8.5 total runs.
Looking Ahead to the Game
This matchup between the Yankees and the Rays promises to be a captivating one. While the Yankees come in with a hot offensive trend recently, they face a formidable opponent in Drew Rasmussen and a Rays team that, despite their recent struggles, is always a tough out at home. The pitching battle will be a key storyline to follow, as will the ability of the Rays’ offense to break out of their current slump against a right-handed pitcher. Keep an eye on how the situational hitting matchups play out, as they could ultimately decide the flow and outcome of the game. We anticipate a tightly contested affair where runs might be at a premium.
My pick: under 8.5 total runs LOSE
