The roar of the crowd, the crack of the bat, the smell of freshly cut grass – there’s nothing quite like a Major League Baseball game, especially when two powerhouse teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Boston Red Sox go head-to-head. Today, Sunday, July 27, 2025, promises to deliver another thrilling chapter in this historic rivalry as these clubs face off at iconic Fenway Park. With the series tied at one game apiece, both teams are hungry for a decisive victory. This isn’t just about winning a single game; it’s about gaining momentum, proving dominance, and setting the tone as the season progresses.
So, let’s dive deep into what makes this matchup so compelling and why one team might just edge out the other in this rubber match.
The Pitching Duel: A Tale of Two Right-Handers
Tonight’s game features a compelling pitching matchup between two right-handers with identical 6-6 records: Dustin May for the Dodgers and Walker Buehler for the Red Sox. While their win-loss records are the same, a closer look at their season and recent performances reveals some important differences.
Dustin May (Dodgers): May comes into this game with a 4.73 ERA over 99.0 innings. His strikeout-to-walk ratio stands at 2.14, and he has a WHIP of 1.36. While these season numbers might seem decent, recent reports indicate that May has faced some challenges. He has allowed a significant number of earned runs in his most recent outings, with some suggesting a possible move to the bullpen if his struggles continue. This suggests that May might be in a vulnerable spot today, looking to find his rhythm against a motivated Red Sox lineup.
Walker Buehler (Red Sox): On the other side, Walker Buehler has a higher season ERA of 5.72 over 85.0 innings, a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 1.86, and a WHIP of 1.52. These season-long statistics don’t paint the prettiest picture, but here’s where recent form becomes incredibly important. Buehler has shown significant improvement in his last few starts. He recently pitched seven innings of one-run ball against the Philadelphia Phillies and has not allowed more than three earned runs in any of his last three outings. This recent surge in performance suggests that he’s finding his stride and could be a tougher challenge than his overall ERA might imply. Facing his former team might also give him an extra boost of motivation to perform exceptionally well.
Offensive Firepower and Team Form
Both the Dodgers and Red Sox possess powerful offenses, but their recent performance and overall team dynamics will play a crucial role in today’s outcome.
Los Angeles Dodgers: The Dodgers boast an intimidating lineup featuring MVP contenders like Shohei Ohtani, who leads the team with 38 home runs and 71 RBIs. Will Smith holds a stellar .325 batting average, and Freddie Freeman consistently gets on base. Despite this star power, the Dodgers have shown some inconsistency recently. They secured a 5-2 victory in the series opener, but then fell 4-2 to the Red Sox on Saturday. Their offense, while capable of explosive outbursts, hasn’t always been reliable in consistently putting up big run totals, especially on the road.
Boston Red Sox: The Red Sox offense, particularly at home in Fenway Park, has been impressive. They rank high in the majors in OPS at their home stadium. Key contributors like Wilyer Abreu (20 HRs) and Trevor Story (60 RBIs) provide significant power and run production. The Red Sox carried momentum from their Saturday win, showcasing their ability to compete with top-tier teams. Their strong home performance, coupled with a desire to win the series, makes them a dangerous opponent today.
The Home Field Advantage and Momentum
Fenway Park is a unique and challenging stadium for visiting teams. The quirky dimensions and passionate Boston crowd can provide a significant boost to the home team. The Red Sox have a solid home record and have demonstrated their ability to capitalize on this advantage throughout the season. After their win yesterday, they have the momentum on their side, looking to clinch the series against a highly-regarded Dodgers team.
Why I’m Confident in the Under 10.5 Total Runs Prediction
When it comes to predicting the total runs in a baseball game, we look at a combination of pitching performance, offensive trends, park factors, and even weather. For this matchup, I’m leaning towards the Under 10.5 total runs, and here’s why, supported by insights from various prediction models:
While 10.5 runs seems like a high total, both starting pitchers, despite their season ERAs, have shown flashes of capability. Dustin May, despite recent struggles, still possesses the talent to limit damage, especially if he can find his control early. More importantly, Walker Buehler has been on an upward trend, consistently giving his team quality starts in recent outings. This suggests that neither pitcher is likely to get completely shelled, which would be necessary for a high-scoring game.
Furthermore, while both offenses are potent, they also have their moments of inconsistency. The Dodgers, with all their stars, sometimes struggle to string together hits. The Red Sox offense, while good at home, will still be facing a major league pitcher in Dustin May.
Here’s what various prediction models suggest, reinforcing the expectation of a more moderate scoring game:
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- FanGraphs Game Score Forecast: Dodgers 5, Red Sox 4 (9 total runs)
- Baseball Prospectus PECOTA Game Prediction: Dodgers 4.7, Red Sox 4.1 (8.8 total runs)
- FiveThirtyEight MLB Model: Dodgers 5.2, Red Sox 4.3 (9.5 total runs)
- The Action Network Model: Dodgers 5.0, Red Sox 4.0 (9 total runs)
- Massey Ratings Projection: Dodgers 4.8, Red Sox 4.3 (9.1 total runs)
The consensus from these analytical models points towards a game where scoring might not reach the very high 10.5 mark.
The Final Outlook
Today’s rubber match between the Dodgers and the Red Sox is set to be a compelling battle. While the Dodgers are often seen as the favorites, the Red Sox, playing at home and with Walker Buehler showing improved form, are in a strong position to pull off the series win. The recent struggles of Dustin May for the Dodgers, combined with Boston’s home-field advantage and strong offensive numbers at Fenway, create an intriguing scenario.
Look for a tightly contested game, where every hit, every pitch, and every defensive play will matter. The Red Sox have the momentum and the home crowd behind them, and their recent pitching performances, particularly Buehler’s, suggest they are ready for the challenge. This game promises a lot of excitement, a true display of competitive baseball as both teams aim to finish the series on a high note. Enjoy the game.
PICK: under 10.5 total runs WIN
