Early Look at the Eagles-49ers NFC Championship: What Teams Dominance?

With the long wait on Sunday at 3pm ET, there are a few thoughts about the NFC Championship Game.

• That the game between the 6th-best offense and 6th-best defense by DVOA (Defensive Adjustment to Average) feels like an undercard shows how good and evenly matched these teams are is a measure of Brock Purdy has literally never lost his NFL game as a quarterback, and San Francisco’s offense has improved since he took over. play off. His 0.43 EPA per drive would have suited him for 4th place in the league for the season.

Anecdotal books on Purdy say that, like Kyle Shanahan’s prototype, he removes the ball quickly and throws it short, mostly over the middle of the field. His average throw time is 2.78 seconds, which ranks him 25th out of 34 quarterbacks, according to TruMedia. His target average depth of scrimmage is 7.61 yards for him beyond his line, good for 20th.

But he definitely throws down the middle of the field. According to TruMedia, his 62% of Purdy’s passes this season have been in between the numbers, including the playoffs. His league average is 44.6%.

• Given that trend, I think a lot of stress is being placed in the middle of the Eagles’ defense.This memo athleticAaron Reiss of may surprise you: No defense in the league has fewer yards after catch per reception on the break route this season than Philadelphia (2.0). Jonathan Gannon’s unit only allowed in-breaking routes to turn into explosive gains (defined as 16+ yards).He was 13.5%, his third-lowest percentage in the league. and ranks him 10th in defensive success percentage on those plays. For his fifth straight year, San Francisco led the league in invasion routes.

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• Abonte Maddox recovers from a toe injury when Darius Slay and James Bradbury, one of the Eagles’ defensive superpowers, are on the outside, slightly weakened by focusing on the center of the field. Check if I’ve kept him out since week 16.

Eagles coach Nick Ciriaani said of Maddox on Monday. of football moves he has to go out and do. Let’s see.

If Maddox can’t return, CJ Gardner-Johnson will likely stay in the slot if the Eagles have at least five defensive backs on the field and lead Blankenship keeps them safe. Blankenship is really impressive and has the physicality to match the Niners’ offense, but the lack of speed seen in Christian Watson’s touchdown in Week 12 is a huge threat to Eagles fans when Deebo Samuel comes to town. It can cause a midweek nightmare for

• The Eagles will run into an endangered fullback this weekend. According to TruMedia, San Francisco lined up with his 21 (two running backs, one tight end) this season, giving him the second-highest percentage in the league. Meanwhile, the Eagles defense had the third-lowest number of snaps out of 21 (although he ranked eighth in defensive success). Although not quite the same, the Eagles generally fared well against heavy packages.

• Christian McCaffrey as a receiver is a problem to solve for Gannon this week. Football He’s The Outsiders According to the DVOA, the Eagles pass how his defense ranked against different types of receivers.

WR1st: 2nd

No. 2 WR: No. 4

“Others”: No.22

Hand: No. 6

RB: No. 24

Eagles offense vs. 49ers defense

• Main Event. He’s one of the league’s best offenses against the league’s best defense. It’s true that the Niners’ defense has never really faced the threat of running at a quarterback like Jalen Hurts (before the Bears’ offense changed identities to accept running Fields, it was a pseudo-runner). Justin played against his Fields in Week 1 at Monsoon). There aren’t many threats like Hart to begin with.

The Hearts and Eagles kicked things off by willingly running despite shoulder injuries against the Giants in the Divisional Round, but the game was so lopsided that they didn’t have to fully embrace it. For a team that has prided itself on running through the league’s top run defense in the past, that may change on Sunday.

• One of the things the Eagles did well all season and played against the Giants was against talent types. They spread things out and run, or throw balls from heavy formations. Including the playoffs, the Eagles are averaging 0.17 EPA per rushing out of his 11 mans and 0.42 EPA per dropping back out of 12 men.

The Niners defense is equally good against 11 man shortfalls (0.18 defensive EPA per rush, #1 in the league).

• If the Niners have a relative weakness in run defense, it could be short yardage. According to Reiss, San Francisco ranks him 31st in third-and-short defense, and opponents he can convert 69.6% of the time, including the playoffs. The Eagles rank him third in third-and-short conversion rates (68.5%).

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• One personnel tweak seen by the Eagles in the Division Round was a little more Zach Pascal at the expense of Kes Watkins. This could make sense again in a game considered physical, but there may also be an opportunity to pop Watkins to make a big play on the field (in the Week 2 matchup of the 2021 season). Like when Watkins caught his 91-). yard pass). San Francisco ranks 24th in his DVOA against deep passes, according to the Football Outsiders, 26th in EPA per play, and 23rd in defense completion percentage against passes that travel at least 20 yards downfield, according to TruMedia. was ranked in

• San Francisco defense and different types of receivers, according to Football Outsiders:

WR1st: 4th

WR 2nd: 18th

“Others”: No.30

Hand: No. 13

RB: 1st place

• This will likely be a game that requires systematic investment for the Eagles to acquire perhaps the league’s best wide-receiver tandem. Nothing is easy, so Devonta Smith and AJ Brown need to make important plays on contested catches. With nine catches against the Giants, the two combined for just 83 yards. Brown, who had only three receptions for 22 yards, was seen on the sideline pissed off and didn’t say anything in the locker room after the game. Siriani admitted Monday that it was partly because he wanted more touches.

“He will always want the ball,” Siriani said. “He’s a really good player. No one has had a lot of targets or a lot of chances in the passing game. But that’s what you want in a receiver, you want to play football. Receivers.” One of the reasons that is great is because they want and crave football, they want the ball to change the game, but make no mistake, he wants us to play the game of football. Obviously you always want to be involved in the plan, how excited he was when he blocked his butt and jumped over that block for Devonta’s touchdown. I can see if you were there.”

There’s a good chance Brown will get what he wants on Sunday.

(Photo: Bill Streicher/USA Today)