Eagles-Saints preview: Matchups, storylines to watch, game predictions

Our Philadelphia Eagles writers Zach Berman and Bo Wulf preview Sunday’s matchup against the New Orleans Saints.

Wulf: Zach, we meet again. As with last week, the Eagles are one win away from securing the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC and the accompanying first-round bye. Also like last week, it looks as if Gardner Minshew will be the one to quarterback the team in its pursuit of that clinching, though it’s not quite set in stone. Reporters were all surprised when we showed up to Thursday’s practice to see Jalen Hurts throwing in full uniform alongside Minshew and Ian Book. Hurts was a limited participant Thursday and Friday and is listed as doubtful ahead of Sunday’s game against the Saints.

“Everything matters with how he’s feeling and what we feel like the timetable is and what the doctors are saying,” head coach Nick Sirianni said Friday. “Everything matters. Everything is in play.”

Sirianni has insisted all along that Hurts “heals faster” than the average player. But while his return to practice seemed ahead of schedule, it always made sense for the Eagles to take things cautiously with their quarterback with the big picture of the playoffs in mind. If the Eagles can win Sunday (they’re currently listed as six-point favorites), they’ll have the chance to keep Hurts rested for a full four weeks ahead of the divisional round. Minshew, meanwhile, is coming off a solid game against the Cowboys, aside from the offense’s four turnovers.

“What’d coach say? He’s the one that makes the decisions, so whatever he said,” Minshew said Friday, trying to keep things coy. He said he hasn’t joked with Hurts about taking his time with recovery. “Nah, man. He’s on a mission and I’m excited just to see him, and everything he’s been doing he’s continued to do.”

I presume you expect it to be Minshew’s show on Sunday? And what are your expectations for how the Eagles backfill the other key injuries at right tackle and nickel corner?

Berman: Happy New Year, Bo. I’m expecting to see another week of Minshew, although I view Hurts’ practice participation as a positive sign. I’ve been operating under the presumption that Hurts won’t play until the postseason, and I’d probably soften that opinion a bit after seeing Hurts’ progress. My sense is that the Eagles didn’t mind New Orleans spending a few extra days wondering about the team’s quarterback situation, although if Hurts was going to play, I’d expect that to be abundantly clear. When there’s room for question, they should lean toward caution — especially when it involves the right shoulder of a star quarterback in a regular-season game in which the Eagles are heavy favorites. They can win with Minshew (and I think they will win with Minshew), but that should factor less into the equation than Hurts’ recovery schedule.

“It’s just always going to go back to what the doctors are saying, what Jalen is saying and where we think he is at that time,” Sirianni said. “I don’t think it’s a, ‘Hey, I have to see him throw it 57 yards on the left-hand side.’ It’s not ever going to be anything like that. It’s just going to always be about the information I get from Jalen and knowing how badly he wants to play, that I have to listen to the doctors as well. … We have to make a decision that’s best for Jalen.”

At right tackle, I expect Jack Driscoll to start. Yes, Jordan Mailata moved to right tackle last year with Andre Dillard playing left tackle during Lane Johnson’s absence. But Mailata is further along in his career, Driscoll has proven to be a capable replacement (even starting at left tackle earlier this season) and the Eagles don’t need to disrupt the whole line. Perhaps if the Eagles were resigned to playing for an extended period without Johnson they would be more willing to make that disruption. Given that they hope Johnson is back for the postseason and could clinch a first-round bye with a win, the Eagles might be looking at only one game in which Johnson would have realistically played. Driscoll was drafted to be Halapoulivaati Vaitai-esque as a key reserve lineman, which is a compliment: Vaitai replaced Jason Peters on the Super Bowl run.

That doesn’t mean the Eagles will be business as usual without Johnson. Philadelphia is 59-21-1 with Johnson since 2016 in the regular season and postseason. It’s 9-29 without him. Here’s my expert analysis: He’s ridiculously good, and his ability to play on an island improves the entire offense. (It’s kind of like air conditioning in the summer; you might not always appreciate it when it’s on, but you’ll definitely notice when it’s broken.) When focusing on Johnson’s absence in Sirianni’s offense last year, the effect was apparent: The Eagles allowed a 46.7 percent pressure rate and gained 1.6 yards before contact per carry without Johnson, and they allowed a 34 percent pressure rate and gained 2.43 yards before contact with him.

At slot cornerback, the continued absence of C.J. Gardner-Johnson (whose practice window was not opened this week even though he was eligible) leads me to believe this will continue to be one-for-one swaps: Reed Blankenship at safety, Josiah Scott at slot cornerback. Perhaps if Gardner-Johnson returned the Eagles would move him to the slot and continue starting Blankenship. It would at least be worth discussing.

Let’s look at this matchup. The Saints have won in back-to-back weeks and have not allowed an opponent to score into the 20s during the past four games. How do you see the Eagles attacking the Saints on offense without Johnson and potentially without Hurts? And what are you expecting from Jonathan Gannon’s unit after allowing 40 points to the Cowboys?

Wulf: I feel pretty confident the Eagles’ defense will have a bounce-back game against the Saints’ offense. New Orleans ranks 24th in weighted offensive DVOA, which matches its 24th ranking in EPA per drive since Week 10. Rookie wide receiver Rashid Shaheed has been a big-play threat of late, Chris Olave has been awesome when healthy and Taysom Hill presents a headache, but this is a mostly bad offense with a penchant for turnovers (23 on the season, which is the fourth-most in the league). Even with a makeshift secondary, I expect Gannon’s unit to do well against Andy Dalton and an offensive line battered on the interior. Backups Josh Andrews (former Eagle!) and Calvin Throckmorton seem likely to start at guard, which could mean big afternoons for Javon Hargrave and Fletcher Cox.

There are a few more variables on the other side of the ball. For one, the Saints might get Marshon Lattimore back, which would give them a better chance of corralling A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. With Driscoll or whoever else at right tackle, Minshew will have a little less time to operate, and we already saw how jittery he was at times in the pocket against Dallas. On the one hand, he could look calmer in his second straight start. Or, with less certainty about the quality of his right tackle, he could be even jumpier. I would guess we’ll see the Eagles’ running backs and tight ends helping out on the right side at times, which could mean a little more 12 personnel because I’m guessing Dallas Goedert will be a focal point of the game plan after he had only three targets last week.

The Saints have come to the Linc each of the past two seasons with the league’s best run defense only for the Eagles to run all over them. But they had the built-in numbers advantage of Hurts being the quarterback for each of those games. That’s obviously not the case this time around, so I’m curious how heavily the Eagles will lean on Miles Sanders. My guess is it won’t be the primary point of attack.

What do you expect the Eagles’ game plan to be? And how do you see the game playing out? Oh, and are there any sets of brothers likely to play on opposite sides in this game?

Berman: In the past, the Eagles believed they could run against this defense. You mentioned last season’s game: the Saints held opponents to 72.9 yards per game entering that week and the Eagles rushed for 242 yards and scored 40 points. The absence of Hurts and Johnson changes the run game, especially because Hurts’ legs were a big reason why they had success. The Eagles can still use Minshew as a threat to keep the ball and they have a strong offensive line and a good scheme, but this is not the same rush offense without Hurts. Sanders’ health is important to watch; if his knee hinders him, I’d be less confident in the running game. If he’s healthy, he should find yards — especially if the Saints are worried about the Eagles’ pass catchers.

The Saints’ run defense is actually more vulnerable this season (132 rushing yards allowed per game). New Orleans has been tougher against the pass. Only the Eagles allow fewer passing yards per game, but the presence of Brown, Smith and Goedert makes me believe the Eagles can find mismatches. Perhaps this is the opposite of last season — Philadelphia moves the ball through the air against one of the NFL’s top pass defenses.

On defense, something to monitor is how little 11 personnel New Orleans plays (it’s been under 40 percent in three of the past five games). The Saints use Hill, they use two backs, they go with heavy packages — it’s not a team that’s going to require you to have a slot cornerback on the field for most snaps. I can see the Eagles playing more five-man fronts. Look for Linval Joseph and Jordan Davis to play big roles and the Eagles forcing the Saints to pass the ball.

As for the storylines from the week, I’ll highlight two:

1. Mailata’s parents are visiting Philadelphia for the first time since he moved here in 2018. They arrived last weekend from Australia for Christmas and have spent the week in Mailata’s new hometown.

“It’s pretty special, can’t wait,” Mailata said. “It’s been a long time coming — four years to be precise. No one’s counting.”

His father was shocked to see the reception Mailata received at the grocery store. They went to the King of Prussia Mall on Wednesday for new clothes to endure the cold, although temperatures should be unseasonably warm at the stadium Sunday. Mailata hoped the fans would give his family a good experience. (They’ll be wearing No. 68 jerseys.)

2. Eagles linebackers Kyzir White and Christian Elliss, whose lockers are next to each other at the team facility, have something else in common: both have older brothers on the other sideline this weekend. White’s brother, Kevin (a former first-round pick), is on New Orleans’ practice squad and will make the trip. Elliss’ brother, Kaden, is a linebacker for the Saints who plays a notable role.

“It’s just funny … when you have a brother in the NFL, you never really played against them before and you finally do, it’s exciting, it’s nerve-wracking,” said Elliss. “You’re excited to see them and you’re excited to kick their butt, too.”

Elliss has had minimal texts with Kaden this week, joking that he would “work him” on special teams.

“A lot of banter,” Elliss said.

White, who is from Lehigh County, said he needed to buy 30 tickets for family coming to the game to see the two Whites on opposite sidelines.

“It means a lot; we both came a long way,” White said. “Seeing him on the other side will be special.”

On to predictions …

I’ll lead off: The Eagles will win this game even with Minshew and without Johnson. They must clean up the turnovers — seven in two games is an alarming trend — but they’re simply better than the Saints. A return home will be welcomed for the Eagles, and they’ve had more time to put together a game plan for Minshew. The defense will pressure Dalton and find turnover opportunities, and the offense will be more efficient and create space on the ground. There are weeks when I’ve thought the game would be closer than the point spread suggests, but I expect the Eagles to win by double digits and clinch the No. 1 seed (and help secure a top 10 pick). Eagles 30, Saints 13

Wulf: The only other time the Eagles lost this season, they followed it up with a near loss against the lowly Colts. There’s more uncertainty now than there was then, but that wasn’t a home game and there wasn’t as much on the line. I think the Eagles will pretty handily take care of business Sunday and lock things up so they won’t have to go on the road again until, potentially, a February trip to Arizona. Minshew protects the ball better and Goedert leads the way with over 100 yards receiving and a touchdown, while Cox and Brandon Graham have a throwback game with 1 1/2 sacks each. Eagles 27, Saints 14

(Photo: Jerome Miron / USA Today)