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Date: Monday, July 29, 2024

Time: 3:05 p.m. ET

Arena: Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD

Hey there, baseball fans! Today, we’ve got a thrilling matchup between the Toronto Blue Jays and the Baltimore Orioles. This game promises to be full of action, and we’ve got all the juicy details you need to make it even more exciting. Let’s break down why this game is a must-watch and why we think it’s going to be a high-scoring affair.

Meet the Teams

Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles have had their ups and downs this season, but they’re always a team to keep an eye on. They’ve recently brought in Zach Eflin from the Tampa Bay Rays, and he’s expected to make his debut in the first game of the doubleheader. Eflin has a solid track record with a 5-7 record and a 4.09 ERA. His last game against the Blue Jays saw him pitch 5 2/3 innings, giving up two runs on six hits. Not bad at all!

The Orioles have a decent batting average of .258, and they’ve shown that they can pack a punch when needed. Players like Ryan Mountcastle and Gunnar Henderson are always ready to light up the scoreboard. Baltimore’s recent victory against the San Diego Padres, where they scored six runs in the third inning, shows they can explode offensively.

Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays have had a mixed season, but they’re coming off a strong performance, having swept the Texas Rangers in their last series. Toronto boasts a slightly better batting average of .263 and has players like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. who can change the game with one swing of the bat.

For the first game of the doubleheader, they’re expected to start rookie right-hander Yariel Rodriguez. He has a 1-3 record with a 3.69 ERA. Rodriguez has been solid this month, allowing only one home run and nine hits in 22 1/3 innings across four outings. Bowden Francis, another promising rookie, is likely to start the second game. With a record of 3-2 and an ERA of 5.82, he’s been a reliable option for the Jays.

Pitchers’ Duel or Batters’ Bonanza?

Now, let’s talk about why we think this game might see a lot of runs. Both teams have strong hitters, and while their starting pitchers are capable, they’ve shown they can be hit. Eflin gave up two runs in his last outing against the Blue Jays, and Rodriguez, though impressive, is still a rookie who might face challenges against a potent Orioles lineup.

Additional Factors to Consider

Pythagorean Expectation: This formula predicts a team’s winning percentage based on the number of runs scored and allowed. Both the Orioles and the Blue Jays have had tight games, indicating that when they play, runs are often scored on both sides.

Strength of Schedule: Both teams have faced tough opponents recently, which means their current stats are against strong competition. This makes their offensive numbers more impressive and suggests they can continue to score runs.

Key Player Injuries: Keeping an eye on the injury list is crucial. If either team is missing key players, it could impact their ability to score runs or prevent them. As of now, both teams seem to be in relatively good shape, which bodes well for a high-scoring game.

Trends and Weather Conditions: Recent trends show that both teams have had high-scoring games. The weather in Baltimore is expected to be favorable for baseball, with clear skies and mild temperatures, perfect for hitters.

Starting Pitchers’ Statistics

Zach Eflin (Orioles):

Record: 5-7
ERA: 4.09
WHIP: 1.22

Eflin has been consistent, but not spectacular. He tends to allow a few runs each game, which, combined with the Orioles’ hitting, can lead to high-scoring games.

Yariel Rodriguez (Blue Jays):

Record: 1-3
ERA: 3.69
WHIP: 1.14

Rodriguez has shown promise, but as a rookie, he’s still finding his footing. He’s been good at limiting home runs, but the Orioles’ offense will test him.

Batting Averages

Orioles: .258

Blue Jays: .263

Both teams have solid batting averages, indicating they’re good at getting on base and driving in runs. This bodes well for a high total runs game.

Top 5 MLB Models

FanGraphs:
- Predicted total runs: 10.5
FiveThirtyEight:
- Predicted total runs: 11
Baseball-Reference: Combines historical data, player performance metrics, and game simulations.
- Predicted total runs: 10.
OddsTrader: Employs AI algorithms and simulations, using past performance stats and real-time data analysis.
- Predicted total runs: 9
Lines.com: Integrates AI systems with human analysis, focusing on trends, injuries, and real-time data.
- Predicted total runs: 9.1

Why Over 9 Total Runs Is the Smart Pick

Given the strong batting lineups of both teams and the potential vulnerabilities of the starting pitchers, we believe that the game is likely to see over 9 total runs. Considering the recent offensive performances and favorable conditions, going over 9 runs seems like a safer bet.

Final Thoughts

In conclusion, tonight’s game between the Orioles and the Blue Jays is set to be an exciting one with plenty of runs. Both teams have strong hitters, and while their pitchers are capable, they’ve shown that they can be hit. Combine this with favorable weather and recent trends, and we believe that picking over 9 total runs is a smart choice.

So, grab your popcorn and get ready for a thrilling game! Let’s see if our prediction holds true. Enjoy the game, and may the best team win!

PICK: over 9 total runs WIN