Dolphins vs. Bills Predictions, odds, lines and spreads: expert best bets on 2023 NFL playoff picks, 26-14 rolls

The Miami Dolphins look to upset the Buffalo Bills on Sunday for the NFL Super Wild Card Weekend 2023 game on CBS and Paramount+. While AFC East rivals split his meetings in his two regular seasons, the Dolphins (9-8) have multiple injuries that will keep him limping into his NFL playoffs in 2023. They pulled off a lethargic 11-6 home win against the Jets, who lost six games in a row. This time, they will face Buffalo, who are on a seven-game winning streak (13-3). Miami has had serious problems at quarterback, with Tua Tagovailoa dealing with a concussion for much of the season and being sidelined on Sunday, while the Bills have no such issues and MVP candidate Joshua Allen is leading the league. Leading one of his offenses.

Kickoff is set for 1:00 PM ET. The Caesars Sportsbook lists Buffalo as his 14-point favorite in his latest Dolphins vs. Bills odds, but he’s over/under 44 in total points earned. SportsLine’s resident Dolphins expert Larry Hartstein’s predictions for the NFL Super Wild Card Weekend. You can stream your games with Paramount+. You can try it for free for 7 days.

A former lead writer for Covers and The Linemakers, Hartstein combines a vast network of Vegas sources with an analytical approach that he honed while working for Pro Football Focus. He recorded his NFL side picks (plus $3,764 for a $100 player) in his 2022 NFL season 427-344, including his 394-330 over the spread. Hartstein made a profit of $1,552 last season, going 68-50 in the ATS and 8-3 in moneyline play.

Additionally, Hartstein has a strong sense of Miami’s strengths and weaknesses, going 26-14-1 in the final 41 picks of the Dolphins game, returning $1,044 to $100 bettors. Anyone who followed him is above.

Now, Hartstein has taken a closer look at the Dolphins vs. Bills to reveal his expert picks and predictions. Here are the Bills vs. Dolphins NFL odds and betting trends:

• Dolphins vs. Bills Spread: Buffalo -14
• Dolphins vs. Bills over/under: 44 points
• Dolphins vs. Bills Moneyline: Miami +650, Buffalo -1000
• MIA: The Dolphins are 21-13-2 to division game spreads over the past five seasons.
• BUF: The bill is 34-23-4 ATS, a favorite under Sean McDermott (since 2017)
• Dolphins vs. Bills Picks: Here’s Our Picks
• Dolphins vs. Bills Live Stream: Paramount+

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Why bills can cover

Buffalo are 8-7-1 against the spread this season and a 6-4-1 ATS against their AFC opponents. They’ve won eight of their last nine matches, so they shouldn’t have too much trouble dealing with Miami’s offense. Quarterback is absent. The Bills have his 18 points per game, the second-lowest in the league, and Miami have topped him with 21 points once in their last seven games. Buffalo’s offense is third down He leads the league in conversion rate (50.3), defense ranks him 7th, and Miami ranks 24th on both sides.

Allen leads the second-best offense in the league in total yards (398 per game) and points scored (28.4). Miami’s defense ranks 27th against passes (235 YPG) and he allows 23.5 points per contest (24th). In addition to his 4,283 passing yards (his 7th in the NFL), the MVP candidate he is his 2nd on the team with his 746 rushing yards. He is tied for second with his 35 TD passes and on the ground he has 8 passes. The Bills outscored the Dolphins by 285 yards in the Miami loss, and Allen threw for 400 yards in the matchup. They failed to score twice from inside the 2-yard line in the 4th quarter. Find out which team to choose here.

Why dolphins can cover

The Underdogs are 4-1-1 against the spread in their last six matches, and Miami are 5-1 ATS in division games this season. The Dolphins have some of the best passing his offense in the league and are sure to miss Tagovailoa, but receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are both big playmakers. Hill said he had 1,710 yards receiving, which puts him second in the NFL, but Waddle said he had 1,356 yards, averaging over 18 yards per reception. On offense, he ranks fourth in yards passed per game (265), sixth in total yards (364), and 11th in points scored (23.4). Miami also ranks second in yards per play with 6.1.

The Dolphins have the second-highest percentage (38%) with 40 sacks, so they should be able to put pressure on Bills quarterback Josh Allen. They also try to make Bill his one-dimensional against runs, as he ranked fourth and gained 103 yards per game. The two matchups this season were decided by a total of five points, and Miami is confident of being one of three teams to beat Buffalo this season.

How to Make an NFL Playoff or Dolphins vs. Bills Pick

Hartstein has analyzed every aspect of this matchup and relies on point totals. He also discovered his X-Factor, which is crucial to jumping one entire side of the spread. He just shares his Bills vs. Dolphins pick and the rest of his professional NFL analysis on his SportsLine.

So who will win the Bills vs. Dolphins in Sunday’s NFL Wildcard matchup, and which all-important X-factor will make one side of the spread a must-back? Check out Hartstein’s Bills vs. Dolphins picks and analysis. All due to his NFL pundit of his 26 wins and 14 losses in his last 41 picks, including Miami. Don’t forget to stream the game on Paramount+ he takes advantage of the 7-day free trial.