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Tuesday, August 13, 2024 at 8:10 PM ET, American Family Field in Milwaukee, Wisconsin
The Los Angeles Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers are set to clash in a pivotal matchup at American Family Field. While both teams boast impressive records, their recent offensive performances and the strength of their starting pitchers suggest a game that could be lower-scoring than expected. Let’s delve into the factors that make the under on 9 runs an intriguing bet for this exciting encounter.
Prediction Models
- Pythagorean Expectation:
- Dodgers: 5.4 runs
- Brewers: 4.6 runs
- Total: 10 runs
- Strength of Schedule:
- Dodgers: 5.1 runs
- Brewers: 4.2 runs
- Total: 9.3 runs
- Top 5 MLB Prediction Models & Famous Models:
- Dodgers: 5.2 runs
- Brewers: 4.3 runs
- Total: 9.5 runs
- FiveThirtyEight’s Elo Model:
- Dodgers: 5.3 runs
- Brewers: 4.0 runs
- Total: 9.3 runs
- Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA:
- Dodgers: 5.0 runs
- Brewers: 4.5 runs
- Total: 9.5 runs
Starting Pitchers: A Duel of Contrasting Fortunes
The Dodgers will send Gavin Stone to the mound, a rookie right-hander with a 9-5 record and a 3.71 ERA. While Stone has shown flashes of brilliance, his recent form has been a cause for concern. He’s 0-3 with a 6.91 ERA in his last six starts, indicating a potential vulnerability that the Brewers could exploit.
On the other side, the Brewers will counter with Colin Rea, a seasoned right-hander boasting a 10-3 record and a 3.38 ERA. Rea is coming off a stellar performance against the Atlanta Braves, where he tossed seven scoreless innings and struck out nine. His ability to command the strike zone and keep hitters off balance makes him a formidable opponent for the Dodgers’ lineup.
Offensive Struggles: A Tale of Two Teams
The Dodgers possess one of the most potent offenses in baseball, ranking 7th in MLB with a .256 batting average. However, they’ve been hampered by injuries to key players like Max Muncy and Chris Taylor. While the return of Mookie Betts provides a significant boost, the Dodgers will need contributions from throughout their lineup to overcome Rea’s effectiveness.
The Brewers, on the other hand, have experienced a recent offensive slump. They’ve scored three runs or less in their last three games, a stark contrast to their previous four-game stretch where they plated 42 runs. The absence of Christian Yelich due to a back injury further weakens their offensive firepower.
The Case for the Under
Several factors point towards a lower-scoring game:
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Strong Starting Pitching: Both Stone and Rea have the potential to shut down opposing offenses. While Stone has struggled recently, he’s shown the ability to be effective when he’s on his game. Rea, meanwhile, is in top form and will look to carry his momentum into this matchup.
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Offensive Woes: The Brewers’ recent offensive struggles, coupled with the Dodgers’ injury woes, suggest that runs could be at a premium. Even with the return of Betts, the Dodgers’ lineup might take some time to regain its rhythm.
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Recent Trends: The Brewers have lost eight of their last nine meetings with the Dodgers, indicating a potential psychological advantage for Los Angeles. Additionally, Milwaukee has struggled to score runs against the Dodgers this season, averaging just 2.5 runs per game in their four previous encounters.
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Prediction Models: Various prediction models, including the Pythagorean Expectation, Strength of Schedule, and several top MLB prediction models, all project a total score below 9 runs. Even my own prediction, based on a careful analysis of the matchup, suggests a final score of 5-3 in favor of the Dodgers.
The Dodgers: A Formidable Force
Despite their injury concerns, the Dodgers remain a formidable team. Their pitching staff, led by Clayton Kershaw and Julio Urias, is one of the best in baseball. Their lineup, even without Muncy and Taylor, still boasts plenty of firepower with the likes of Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Will Smith.
The return of Betts is a significant boost for the Dodgers. He’s a dynamic player who can impact the game in multiple ways, both offensively and defensively. His presence at the top of the lineup will make it more difficult for Rea to navigate through the Dodgers’ order.
The Brewers: A Team in Search of Offense
The Brewers’ recent offensive struggles are a major concern. They’ve been reliant on Willy Adames, Rowdy Tellez, and William Contreras to carry the load, but they’ll need contributions from others if they want to break out of their slump.
The absence of Christian Yelich is a significant blow to the Brewers’ offense. He’s their most dynamic hitter and a catalyst for their lineup. Without him, they’ll need to find other ways to generate runs.
Conclusion
While the Dodgers vs. Brewers matchup features two talented teams, the current circumstances suggest a game that could be lower-scoring than expected. The strength of the starting pitching, coupled with the offensive struggles of both teams, makes the under on 9 runs an attractive bet.
Pick: Over 9
