Dodgers ML or Red Sox? Breaking Down the Sharp Money & Public Betting Trends

The Los Angeles Dodgers and Boston Red Sox wrap up their thrilling three-game series at Fenway Park on Sunday, July 27, 2025, in a matchup loaded with playoff implications. Both teams are fighting for position in their respective divisions, with the Dodgers holding a firm lead in the NL West while the Red Sox look to climb in a tight AL East race.

This game features a compelling pitching duel between Dustin May (Dodgers) and Walker Buehler (Red Sox), two arms familiar with high-pressure situations. May has been sharp in recent outings, while Buehler looks to rebound from inconsistency. Adding to the intrigue, Mookie Betts—former Red Sox star—could be back in the lineup, facing his old team in a hitter-friendly ballpark.

But how do the advanced metrics, AI betting models, and key situational factors shape this game? We’ve analyzed:
✔ Top MLB AI betting models (BetQL, ESPN, SportsLine, etc.) for consensus projections
✔ Pythagorean theorem & strength of schedule adjustments
✔ Pitching matchup breakdowns (May vs. Buehler)
✔ Injury impacts (Betts probable, key bullpen arms out for both teams)
✔ Recent trends & ballpark factors (Fenway’s effect on scoring)

With the Red Sox listed as +114 home underdogs and the total set at 10.5 runs, this game presents intriguing betting opportunities. Will the Dodgers’ superior run prevention prevail, or can Boston’s offense exploit LA’s depleted bullpen?

Let’s dive into the data-driven breakdown to uncover the best angles for this marquee interleague clash.

MLB AI Betting Models

My Custom Prediction (Pythagorean Theorem + Strength of Schedule + Adjustments)

1. Pythagorean Win Expectation

• Dodgers:

  • Runs Scored (RS): 4.9/game

  • Runs Allowed (RA): 3.8/game

  • Pythagorean Win% = RS² / (RS² + RA²) = 62.4%

• Red Sox:

  • Runs Scored (RS): 4.6/game

  • Runs Allowed (RA): 4.3/game

  • Pythagorean Win% = 53.4%

Edge: Dodgers (~9% better expected win%)

2. Strength of Schedule (SoS) Adjustment

• Dodgers: Faced top-10 offenses 55% of games (harder schedule).

• Red Sox: Faced top-10 offenses 45% of games (easier schedule).
  Adjustment: Dodgers get +0.3 runs, Red Sox -0.2 runs.

3. Pitching Matchup (May vs. Buehler)

• Dustin May (Dodgers):

  • 2025 ERA: 3.45, xFIP: 3.60

  • Recent Form: 2.89 ERA in last 3 starts

• Walker Buehler (Red Sox):

  • 2025 ERA: 4.10, xFIP: 4.25

  • Recent Form: 4.50 ERA in last 3 starts
    Edge: Dodgers (May in better form, better underlying metrics)

4. Injuries & Lineup Impact

• Dodgers:

  • Mookie Betts (probable) – Huge boost if he plays.

  • Kim (questionable) – If out, weakens defense.

  • Bullpen injuries (Treinen, Phillips, Graterol out) – Late-game risk.

• Red Sox:

  • Triston Casas, Kutter Crawford out – Hurts offense & pitching depth.

  • Bullpen injuries (Hendriks, Slaten, Winckowski out) – High-leverage arms missing.
    Edge: Dodgers (Betts playing is key, Sox missing key bats & relievers)

5. Trends & Recent News

• Last 5 Games:

  • Dodgers: 3-2

  • Red Sox: 2-3

• Head-to-Head (2025):

  • Jul 25: Dodgers 5, Red Sox 2

  • Jul 26: Red Sox 4, Dodgers 2

• Ballpark Factor: Fenway Park favors RH power (Betts, Freeman benefit).

Final Custom Prediction

• Dodgers: 5.3 runs

• Red Sox: 4.1 runs

• Prediction: Dodgers ML (-104 implied, but actual odds +114 for Red Sox = slight value on Dodgers)

Combined AI + Custom Model Average

Pick

• Take the Los Angeles Dodgers -114 Moneyline ***LOSE***