Date: Friday, October 18, 2024

Time: 5:08 PM ET

Location: Citi Field, Flushing, NY

The excitement is reaching a fever pitch as the Los Angeles Dodgers prepare to face the New York Mets in a crucial Game 5 of the National League Championship Series. With the Dodgers holding a commanding 3-1 series lead, they are on the brink of clinching a spot in the World Series.

The Mets, however, are not ready to pack their bags just yet. Facing elimination at Citi Field, they aim to harness their home-field advantage and fight back. This matchup promises to be a thrilling contest filled with high stakes, intense emotions, and the kind of drama that only postseason baseball can deliver.

Current Team Form

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers have been on a roll lately, showcasing their offensive firepower and solid pitching. They’ve won seven of their last ten games, averaging 5.6 runs per game during this stretch. Their lineup is loaded with talent, including stars like Shohei Ohtani, who leads the team with 54 home runs and 130 RBIs, and Mookie Betts, who has also been a key contributor.

Their recent performance against the Mets has been nothing short of dominant. In Game 4, they cruised to a 10-2 victory, highlighting their ability to score runs in bunches. The Dodgers are hitting .259 as a team this postseason and have drawn an impressive 31 walks compared to the Mets’ 17.

New York Mets

The Mets have had their ups and downs this season but have shown resilience when it matters most. After starting the season poorly, they managed to clinch a playoff berth and have fought hard in this series. However, they find themselves in a tough spot against a formidable Dodgers team.

Despite being down 3-1 in the series, the Mets have some momentum on their side. They’ve averaged 4.0 runs per game in this postseason but have struggled offensively against Los Angeles, hitting just .212 in the NLCS. Key players like Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso will need to step up if they hope to stave off elimination.

Key Statistics

Dodgers:
- Runs Scored per Game: 5.6
- Team Batting Average: .259
- Walks Drawn: 31
Mets:
- Runs Scored per Game: 4.0
- Team Batting Average: .212
- Walks Drawn: 17

Notable Injuries

Injuries can significantly impact a team’s performance during critical games.

Dodgers

Miguel Rojas (day-to-day)
Clayton Kershaw (15-Day IL, toe)

Mets

Paul Blackburn (60-Day IL, spine)
Christian Scott (60-Day IL, elbow)
Ronny Mauricio (60-Day IL, knee)

While both teams have key players dealing with injuries, the Dodgers appear to be in better shape overall.

Why Over 7.5 Total Runs?

Given the offensive capabilities of both teams and recent performances, picking the over on total runs seems promising.

AI Model Predictions

Here’s what five successful MLB prediction models suggest regarding total runs:

BetQL: Predicted score of Dodgers 5, Mets 3
ESPN: Predicted score of Dodgers 6, Mets 4
SportsLine: Predicted score of Dodgers 4, Mets 3
AI Picksmaster: Predicted score of Dodgers 5, Mets 2
CortexSports: Predicted score of Dodgers 6, Mets 3

Average Model Prediction

Calculating these predictions gives us an average score of approximately:

Dodgers: ~5.2 runs
Mets: ~3.8 runs

This totals around 9 runs, well above the set line of 7.5, indicating that an over bet is reasonable.

Pythagorean Theorem Analysis

Using the Pythagorean theorem for baseball:

$Expected Winning Percentage = Runs Scored ^{2} + Runs Allowed ^{2} Runs Scored ^{2}$ Assuming average runs scored based on predictions:

Runs Scored by Dodgers: ~5.2
Runs Allowed by Mets: ~4.0

$Winning Percentage for Dodgers = ( 5.2 ) ^{2} + ( 4 ) ^{2} ( 5.2 ) ^{2} = 27.04 + 16 27.04 = 43.04 27.04 \approx 0.628$ This suggests a winning probability of about 63% for the Dodgers.

Matchup Analysis

Starting Pitchers

Jack Flaherty (Dodgers):
- Record: 13-7
- ERA: 3.17
- WHIP: 1.07

Flaherty has been reliable this postseason and previously dominated the Mets in Game 1.

David Peterson (Mets):
- Record: 10-3
- ERA: 2.90

Peterson has shown promise but struggled against the Dodgers earlier in this series.

Offensive and Defensive Capabilities

The Dodgers boast one of the most potent offenses in baseball, capable of scoring quickly and often against any pitcher they face.On the other hand, while the Mets have shown flashes of brilliance offensively throughout the season, they need to find consistency against top-tier pitching like Flaherty’s.

Final Prediction

As we approach this crucial Game 5 at Citi Field, all signs point toward an exciting contest filled with high stakes and potential fireworks on offense.Given the current form of both teams, key statistics favoring the Dodgers’ offensive prowess, and solid predictions from various models indicating that total runs will exceed 7.5, it’s reasonable to feel confident about selecting that option for this game.

Expect a tight battle where both teams will showcase their strengths; however, with Flaherty on the mound for Los Angeles and their lineup firing on all cylinders, it’s hard not to lean towards a victory for the Dodgers while also anticipating plenty of scoring action throughout the game.

So gear up for what promises to be an exhilarating matchup—this is baseball at its finest!

PICK: over 7.5 total runs WIN