Don’t miss your chance to win $1000 in the ATS Wins countdown to kickoff giveaway
Date: Wednesday, August 7, 2024
Time: 1:10 p.m. ET
Arena: Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH
As Major League Baseball heats up this August, fans are gearing up for an intriguing matchup between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Cleveland Guardians. Both teams have shown flashes of brilliance this season, and tonight’s game promises to be another exciting chapter in their storylines. With the game set to kick off at 1:10 p.m. ET at Progressive Field, Cleveland, let’s explore why this game could be a nail-biter and why the under on 7.5 total runs might be a smart play.
Current Form and Key Statistics
Arizona Diamondbacks: The Diamondbacks have been on a tear lately, boasting a remarkable 22-9 record since June 29. Their recent performance reflects a team that’s hitting their stride at just the right time. Key to their success has been their offensive power. Arizona’s lineup has been explosive, with Ketel Marte and Joc Pederson making headlines. Marte has been on fire, batting .385 with 11 homers and 27 RBIs in his past 21 games. Pederson, meanwhile, has been a force with a .409 average, five homers, and 12 RBIs over his last nine games.
Defensively, the Diamondbacks have also been solid, though they face a challenge with Gabriel Moreno on the 10-day injured list due to a strained adductor. This could impact their catching depth, but the team has shown resilience and adaptability.
Cleveland Guardians: On the flip side, the Guardians have faced a rough patch recently, losing three straight games and allowing 23 runs in that span. Despite this slump, they’ve had standout performances from players like Jose Ramirez. Ramirez is currently hitting .424 with five homers and 12 RBIs in his last nine games, showing he’s a player to watch.
The Guardians’ pitching staff has been a mixed bag. Ben Lively, who will start the first game of the doubleheader, has been effective this season with a 3.42 ERA. Carlos Carrasco, scheduled to start the second game, has had past success against the Diamondbacks, although his overall ERA this season stands at 5.53.
Injury Reports and Impact
Diamondbacks:
- Gabriel Moreno (C): Moreno’s injury could be a significant blow to the Diamondbacks’ defense. His absence may affect their ability to manage the game behind the plate, but with a deep roster, they’re equipped to handle the loss.
Guardians:
- No major injuries reported: Cleveland seems to be relatively healthy, which could give them an edge if they can capitalize on their full roster.
Why the Under 7.5 Total Runs Makes Sense
Considering the projected total of 7.5 runs, the under seems like a logical choice based on several predictive models:
- Pythagorean Expectation Model: This model, which considers a team’s expected win percentage based on their runs scored and allowed, suggests a low-scoring game. The Diamondbacks and Guardians both have strong defensive stats that could contribute to fewer runs.
- Sabermetrics Model: Advanced metrics highlight both teams’ recent struggles to score consistently, despite their offensive stars. The Guardians, in particular, have had issues getting runs across in recent games.
- Historical Performance Model: Looking at past matchups and how these teams have fared against similar opponents, low-scoring games have been the norm when these teams meet.
- Recent Form Model: Recent performance trends for both teams indicate that scoring runs might be challenging. The Guardians’ recent slide and the Diamondbacks’ key injury could lead to fewer runs scored.
- Starting Pitcher Analysis Model: Evaluating the starting pitchers, Ben Lively and Brandon Pfaadt, both have shown the ability to limit runs. Lively’s strong recent form and Pfaadt’s decent performance suggest a tightly contested, low-scoring game.
Top 5 MLB Predictions
- Model 1: Pythagorean Expectation Model
- Projected Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4, Cleveland Guardians 3
- Model 2: Sabermetrics Model
- Projected Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 3, Cleveland Guardians 2
- Model 3: Historical Performance Model
- Projected Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4, Cleveland Guardians 2
- Model 4: Recent Form Model
- Projected Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4, Cleveland Guardians 3
- Model 5: Starting Pitcher Analysis Model
- Projected Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 3, Cleveland Guardians 3
Matchup Analysis
Diamondbacks’ Starting Pitcher: Brandon Pfaadt Pfaadt has been solid in recent games, with a 3.97 ERA and a 6-1 record in his last seven starts. His ability to limit runs, combined with the Guardians’ recent struggles, supports a lower total run expectation.
Guardians’ Starting Pitcher: Ben Lively Lively has been impressive this season, boasting a 3.42 ERA and effective outings in his recent starts. His capability to keep runs to a minimum aligns with the underprojection.
Offensive and Defensive Capabilities Both teams have had streaks of high offensive output, but recent trends show a drop in scoring efficiency. The Guardians have been inconsistent, while the Diamondbacks’ recent injuries could impact their offensive production.
Final Prediction
As we look ahead to this matchup, the combination of strong pitching, recent form, and historical data suggests that the game will likely see fewer runs than the over/under line of 7.5. The Diamondbacks have shown resilience, and while their offense is potent, they face a solid pitcher in Lively and have been impacted by injuries. The Guardians, although having key players like Ramirez, have struggled to convert their opportunities into runs.
Final Score Projection: Based on our analysis, we anticipate a close, low-scoring game with a final score of:
- Arizona Diamondbacks 3, Cleveland Guardians 2
This result aligns with our models and analysis, suggesting a total of 5 runs, comfortably under the 7.5 total.
For those considering a run line wager, picking the under on 7.5 runs appears to be a wise choice. Given the current form, pitching matchups, and recent trends, it’s likely this game will stay under the total, making it a favorable pick.
As always, while predictions are based on current data and trends, it’s important to stay informed and make decisions that align with your own analysis and understanding of the game. Enjoy the game, and let’s hope for a thrilling and competitive matchup!
PICK: under 7.5 total runs LOSE
