Diamondbacks Aim to Silence the Phils After NLCS Rematch Looms

Date:  Friday, June 21, 2024

Time: 6:40 p.m. ET

Arena: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA

The Arizona Diamondbacks and Philadelphia Phillies are set to clash tonight in what promises to be a compelling matchup. This game holds particular significance as the Phillies look to avenge their previous National League Championship Series (NLCS) loss to the Diamondbacks. Read more about the analysis of each team, their starting pitchers, and why betting on under 9.5 total runs might be the smartest move.

Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks have shown resilience this season, coming close to a .500 win record. The team’s batting average stands at a respectable .252, showcasing a balanced offensive lineup. Key players like Christian Walker and Ketel Marte have been instrumental in driving the team’s success. Walker, for instance, has homered 17 times this season, with five of those coming in just the last eight games. His power at the plate makes him a significant threat to any pitcher.

The team’s recent form has been promising, with a notable victory against the Washington Nationals that marked their seventh win in ten games. Manager Torey Lovullo has expressed pride in his team’s performance, especially given the challenges they have faced, including missing three-fifths of their starting rotation. Despite these obstacles, the Diamondbacks have continued to improve daily.

Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies are coming off a series win against the San Diego Padres, although they dropped the final game. Their batting average is slightly higher than Arizona’s at .255. Key players include Bryce Harper and Nick Castellanos. Harper, despite a recent slump in the NLCS, remains a formidable presence at the plate, recently hitting two solo homers against the Padres. Castellanos has also been in excellent form, going 7-for-13 with four doubles in the series against San Diego.

Manager Rob Thomson is optimistic about the team’s performance, especially after securing a series win, and hopes to carry this momentum into the game against the Diamondbacks. The team will also honor left-hander Cole Hamels before the game, adding an emotional boost to the evening.

Starting Pitchers

Arizona Diamondbacks: Jordan Montgomery

Montgomery has had an up-and-down season with a 5-4 record and an ERA of 6.00. However, he has shown potential with recent strong performances, including a victory against the Chicago White Sox where he allowed just one unearned run over five innings. Montgomery’s experience and ability to bounce back make him a critical player for the Diamondbacks tonight.

Philadelphia Phillies: Taijuan Walker

Walker has struggled recently, holding a 3-2 record with a 5.33 ERA. He is on a six-start winless skid, with his last outing resulting in a loss to the Baltimore Orioles. Despite these challenges, Walker’s career stats suggest he has the potential to deliver a solid performance. His ability to navigate tough lineups will be crucial against the Diamondbacks.

Model Predictions

• PECOTA: 8.5 total runs
• ZiPS: 8.0 total runs
• Steamer: 8.8 total runs
• Davenport: 7.2 total runs
• FanGraphs Depth Charts: 9.0 total runs

Analysis: Under 9.5 Total Runs

Considering the statistics and recent performances of both teams and their starting pitchers, betting on under 9.5 total runs appears to be a wise choice. Here’s why:

1. Pitching Matchup: Both starting pitchers, Jordan Montgomery and Taijuan Walker, have had their struggles but also possess the capability to limit runs. Montgomery’s recent form has been encouraging, and Walker has shown flashes of brilliance despite his winless streak. Their performances are likely to keep the run totals lower.
2. Batting Averages: The batting averages for both teams (.252 for the Diamondbacks and .255 for the Phillies) indicate that while they have competent lineups, they are not overwhelmingly dominant. This balances out the likelihood of a high-scoring game.
3. Recent Trends: The Diamondbacks have been improving, but their games have not been consistently high-scoring. Similarly, the Phillies have had some low-scoring encounters, such as their recent game against the Padres where they only managed six hits and struck out ten times.
4. Emotional Boost: The pre-game ceremony honoring Cole Hamels could provide an emotional lift for the Phillies, potentially translating into a more focused and disciplined performance, particularly in pitching and defense.
5. Historical Context: The last time these two teams met in a significant series, it was a tightly contested affair. This historical context often influences current performances, as teams remember past encounters and adjust their strategies accordingly.

Conclusion

Based on the detailed analysis above, picking under 9.5 total runs for tonight’s game between the Diamondbacks and the Phillies makes logical sense. The combination of balanced but not overpowering offenses, capable pitching that has shown potential despite recent struggles, and the emotional context surrounding the game all point toward a lower-scoring contest.

By focusing on these elements, you can feel confident that this bet is supported by solid reasoning and thoughtful consideration of all influencing factors.

PICK: under 9.5 total runs WIN