Tuesday, July 9, 2024, 9:40 p.m. ET, Chase Field Phoenix, AZ
The desert heat is rising, and so are the stakes as the Atlanta Braves and Arizona Diamondbacks prepare for a primetime showdown in Phoenix. While the focus is on the pitching matchup between Chris Sale and Zac Gallen, the offensive firepower on both sides could steal the show and push the total runs.
Top MLB Prediction Models:
- PECOTA (Projection System by Baseball Prospectus): Total Runs: 8
- ZiPS (Projection System by Dan Szymborski): Total Runs: 7
- FiveThirtyEight’s Elo-based model: Total Runs: 9
- The BAT (The Baseball Analysis Tool): Total Runs: 7.5
- Clay Davenport’s Translations: Total Runs: 8.2
- Fangraphs Depth Charts: Total Runs: 8.5
Famous Models:
- Bill James’ Pythagorean Expectation: Total Runs: 7.8
- Baseball Reference’s Simple Rating System (SRS): Total Runs: 8.3
Braves: A Resurgent Sale and a Bruised Lineup
Chris Sale’s resurgence has been a highlight for the Braves this season. With an 11-3 record and a 2.71 ERA, he’s tied for the league lead in wins and consistently limits opponents to two or fewer runs. However, Sale’s history against the Diamondbacks is limited, with just two starts and a 2.53 ERA. While he has the upper hand in strikeouts (127) compared to Gallen, the Braves’ offense will need to step up in the absence of key players like Ronald Acuna Jr.
The Braves boast a .242 team batting average, but their power is evident with 102 home runs. However, injuries have plagued their lineup, and the absence of Acuna’s dynamic presence could be felt in this series. Despite this, the Braves’ ability to rally for a dramatic win in the series opener demonstrates their resilience. If they can exploit Gallen’s vulnerabilities, they could put up a significant number of runs.
Diamondbacks: Gallen’s Return and Offensive Explosiveness
Zac Gallen’s return from a hamstring injury is a welcome sight for the Diamondbacks. While his recent performance against the Dodgers wasn’t stellar, he has a solid track record against the Braves, going 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA in four starts. His ability to keep the ball in the park will be crucial against a Braves lineup that boasts several players with home run history against him.
The Diamondbacks’ offense has been their driving force this season, with a .253 team batting average and 448 runs scored. Although they have fewer home runs than the Braves, their ability to consistently put runs on the board is undeniable. Ketel Marte, their All-Star second baseman, will need to overcome his struggles against Sale if the Diamondbacks want to secure a win.
Why Over 7.5 Runs is the Smart Bet
The pitching matchup between Sale and Gallen is intriguing, but several factors point towards a higher-scoring game:
- Offensive Potential: Both teams have potent offenses capable of putting up runs in bunches.
- Weather Conditions: The dry desert air in Phoenix often leads to increased offensive production.
- Recent Trends: The Diamondbacks have been involved in high-scoring games lately, and their bullpen has shown vulnerability.
- Statistical Models: Many prediction models suggest a total run count around 8, supporting the over bet.
Conclusion
The Braves and Diamondbacks matchup promises to be a thrilling contest. While the pitching duel between Sale and Gallen will be captivating, the offensive capabilities of both teams suggest that a high-scoring game is in the cards. Betting the over 7.5 runs could be a wise decision, especially considering the historical data, recent trends, and environmental factors at play.
Pick: Over 7.5
