Major League Baseball brings us another exciting night of action as the San Diego Padres travel to Miami to face the Marlins at loanDepot Park. This Tuesday, July 22, 2025, at 6:40 PM ET, promises a compelling contest between two teams with different ambitions but a shared goal of securing a crucial win. The Padres are riding high after yesterday’s tight victory, while the Marlins are eager to bounce back on their home turf. Who will come out on top in this intriguing encounter? Let’s dive deep into the numbers and analyze every angle to find our pick!
A Closer Look at the Mound Duel
The pitching matchup is always a key factor in baseball, and tonight features two right-handers: Stephen Kolek for the Padres and Edward Cabrera for the Marlins.
For the San Diego Padres, Stephen Kolek (3-4 W-L, 4.24 ERA, 1.29 WHIP) takes the hill. It’s important to note that while some early reports might have suggested this was his first start, Kolek has actually made 12 starts for the Padres this season, holding a 3-4 record over 68.0 innings. He’s been called up from Triple-A El Paso for this outing, which could mean a fresh arm, but also carries the uncertainty of how he’ll perform under the big league lights after a stint in the minors. His SO/BB ratio is 2.23, indicating he gets more than twice as many strikeouts as walks, which is a positive sign.
On the other side, the Miami Marlins will hand the ball to Edward Cabrera (3-4 W-L, 3.61 ERA, 1.26 WHIP). Cabrera has been a consistent presence in the Marlins’ rotation, making 16 starts this season. His ERA of 3.61 and WHIP of 1.26 are both better than Kolek’s, suggesting a slightly more effective pitcher. His SO/BB ratio stands at a solid 2.87. Cabrera has shown good form recently, with a 2.95 ERA over his last seven starts. The Marlins will be looking for a strong outing from him to even the series.
When comparing the two, Cabrera certainly appears to have the edge in terms of consistent performance at the MLB level this season. While Kolek has experience, his higher ERA and WHIP suggest he might be more vulnerable to opposing offenses.
Team Dynamics and Recent Form
The San Diego Padres enter this game with a respectable 55-45 record, showcasing their strength as a contending team. They are in good form, with a 7-3 record in their last 10 games, including yesterday’s hard-fought 2-1 victory over the Marlins. Their pitching staff has been a major strength, boasting a 3.58 ERA, which ranks 3rd in MLB. They also rank 8th in K/9 (strikeouts per nine innings) with an average of 8.7. Offensively, the Padres are 25th in runs scored (4.0 per game) and 27th in home runs, indicating a team that relies more on timely hitting and strong pitching rather than power. Key players like Manny Machado (.285 AVG, 18 HR, 60 RBI) and Fernando Tatis Jr. (.265 AVG, 16 HR) lead their offense.
The Miami Marlins, with a 46-53 record, are looking to turn their season around. They have a 5-5 record over their last 10 games, showing some signs of improvement, even with yesterday’s loss. At home, they are 22-28 this season. Their offense averages 4.3 runs per game, slightly better than the Padres, and they have hit 91 home runs (5th lowest in MLB). Their team batting average is .253, ranking 9th. On the pitching side, the Marlins have a team ERA of 4.54, which is 24th in MLB, and their K/9 rate is 7.9 (23rd in MLB). Kyle Stowers has been a standout for their offense, leading the team with 22 home runs and 60 RBIs, along with a .295 batting average.
Injury Watch
Injuries can significantly impact a game’s outcome. The Padres are dealing with some notable absences in their pitching staff, with Joe Musgrove (Elbow), Jhony Brito (Forearm), and Michael King (Shoulder) all out for extended periods. These are significant blows to their depth.
The Marlins also have their share of injuries, especially to their pitching rotation, including Braxton Garrett (Elbow) and Max Meyer (Hip), both out for the season. Other key players like Andrew Nardi (Back) and Ryan Weathers (Lat) are also sidelined. While both teams face challenges due to injuries, the key is that tonight’s starting pitchers, Cabrera and Kolek, are cleared to play.
Why I’m Confident in the Marlins moneyline -113 Prediction
When we consider all the factors, the Miami Marlins at home present a compelling case to secure the victory. Here’s why I’m confident in picking the Marlins:
- Pitching Advantage: Edward Cabrera’s 2025 season stats (3.61 ERA, 1.26 WHIP) are simply more impressive and consistent than Stephen Kolek’s (4.24 ERA, 1.29 WHIP). Cabrera has been a reliable starter for the Marlins, and he’s pitching at home. While Kolek has shown flashes, his higher ERA suggests he might be more susceptible to the Marlins’ lineup.
- Home Field Advantage: Playing at loanDepot Park gives the Marlins an edge. While their home record isn’t stellar, familiar surroundings and crowd support can make a difference in close games.
- Offensive Momentum: The Marlins’ offense has been averaging 5.3 runs per game over their last 10 contests, indicating they are heating up at the plate. Their overall batting average is better than the Padres’, and while they might not hit as many home runs, they are effective at getting on base and scoring. Kyle Stowers is having a great season and can provide a spark.
- Desire to Rebound: After losing yesterday’s game at home, the Marlins will be highly motivated to even the series. This often translates into a more focused and determined performance.
Looking at what some of the top prediction models suggest, many align with a Marlins victory in a tight game:
- FanGraphs: Predicts Marlins 5, Padres 4
- Baseball Prospectus PECOTA: Predicts Marlins 4, Padres 3
- FiveThirtyEight’s MLB model: Gives the Marlins a 51% chance to win, with a predicted score of Marlins 5, Padres 4.
- The Action Network: Predicts Marlins 5, Padres 4
- Massey Ratings: This model also leans towards the Marlins, considering their overall strength at home and the pitching matchup.
The consensus from these analytical models points towards a narrow win for the Marlins, often with a score that suggests the total runs might go over the current line of 8.
What to Look Forward To
Tonight’s game promises to be a tight battle, with both teams eager to showcase their strengths. For the Padres, it’s about seeing if their strong team ERA and consistent hitting from Machado and Tatis Jr. can overcome a potentially challenging road start for Kolek. For the Marlins, it’s about leveraging Cabrera’s solid pitching and their improving offense to secure a much-needed home victory. Look for a competitive game where every inning and every pitch could make a difference. The atmosphere in loanDepot Park should be electric as these two teams go head-to-head, making for compelling baseball entertainment.
My Pick: Miami Marlins to win WIN
