The Western Conference Finals between the Dallas Stars and Edmonton Oilers have been an intense, back-and-forth battle. Heading into Game 4 on Tuesday, May 27, 2025, at Rogers Place in Edmonton, the Oilers hold a 2-1 series lead after a dominant 6-1 victory in Game 3. This game is crucial for both teams. Edmonton wants to take a commanding 3-1 lead, while Dallas is desperate to even the series and keep their Stanley Cup hopes alive.

In this blog, we’ll break down everything you need to know about this matchup, including team stats, injury updates, recent form, and expert model predictions. We’ll also explain why the under 6.5 total goals is the smart choice for this game. Let’s dive in.

How Are the Teams Performing?

Edmonton Oilers: On a Roll

The Oilers have been firing on all cylinders lately. They average 3.75 goals per game in these playoffs, which is impressive. Defensively, they allow about 2.79 goals per game. Their power play is effective, converting 25.7% of their chances.

Edmonton’s recent form is excellent. They have won 10 of their last 12 games overall, showing strong momentum heading into Game 4. Connor McDavid, their superstar, scored twice in Game 3 after a slow start in the series. His resurgence has energized the team. The Oilers also have depth — 18 different players have scored at least once in the playoffs, which makes them tough to defend.

Dallas Stars: Struggling to Find Their Groove

The Stars have struggled more in this series. They average 2.50 goals per game, noticeably less than Edmonton. Defensively, they allow 3.05 goals per game, which has been a problem. Their power play is actually better than Edmonton’s, with a 31.9% success rate, but they haven’t been able to capitalize enough.

Dallas has been outscored 9-1 in the last two games, including the heavy loss in Game 3. Key players like Mikko Rantanen, Tyler Seguin, and captain Jamie Benn have been unable to find the back of the net consistently. Rookie Jason Robertson scored his first playoff goal recently, but the Stars need more from their veterans.

Injury Updates and What They Mean

Injuries can change the course of a playoff series, so it’s important to understand who’s available.

Dallas Stars: Roope Hintz, a key offensive player, missed Game 3 with a lower-body injury but is listed as day-to-day and hopeful to play in Game 4. His return could give Dallas a much-needed boost on offense. Nils Lundkvist remains out long-term with a shoulder injury.
Edmonton Oilers: Mattias Ekholm, a veteran defenseman, is day-to-day and may return for Game 4, which would strengthen Edmonton’s defensive lineup. Connor Brown is out until at least May 29, so he will likely miss this game. Backup goalie Calvin Pickard is also day-to-day.

Key Matchup Factors to Watch

Momentum and Home Ice Advantage

The Oilers have the momentum and home-ice advantage. They are 5-1 at home in these playoffs with a +13 goal differential. Their dominant 6-1 win in Game 3 showed they can control the game and frustrate the Stars. Dallas, meanwhile, is in a tough spot. Falling behind 3-1 in a best-of-seven series is historically very difficult to come back from.

Star Power and Depth

Connor McDavid is the league’s best player and has started to heat up at the right time. His two goals in Game 3 showed why he’s so dangerous. The Oilers also have strong depth, with many players contributing offensively.

Dallas has talented players but many are struggling to produce. If Roope Hintz returns healthy, he could change the game with his speed and skill. But the Stars need more consistent scoring from their veterans.

Goaltending Battle

Stuart Skinner has been outstanding for Edmonton, especially in Game 3, where he made 33 saves. Jake Oettinger has been solid overall but was outplayed in the last game. If Oettinger can bounce back and tighten up his game, Dallas has a chance to keep this game close.

Special Teams

Dallas has the edge on the power play, converting nearly 32% of their chances compared to Edmonton’s 25.7%. This could be a key factor if the Stars can draw penalties and capitalize.

Why the Under 6.5 Total Goals Is the Smart Choice

Game 3 was a high-scoring game, but most experts and models expect Game 4 to be much tighter. Here’s why:

Defensive Adjustments: After allowing six goals in Game 3, Dallas is expected to focus on defense and play more cautiously. They can’t afford another blowout loss.
Goaltending Focus: Both teams will rely heavily on their goalies. Oettinger will want to rebound, and Skinner will try to maintain his strong form.
Playoff Hockey Style: As series progress, teams tend to play more carefully to avoid mistakes. This usually leads to fewer goals.
Model Predictions: Five respected prediction models all forecast a total score under 6.5 goals. These include the Poisson Distribution Model, ELO Rating System, Monte Carlo Simulation, Logistic Regression Model, and NHL Power Rankings Model.

What the Models Say: Predicted Scores for Game 4

Prediction Model	Predicted Score (Oilers – Stars)
Poisson Distribution	4 – 2
ELO Rating System	3 – 2
Monte Carlo Simulation	4 – 2
Logistic Regression Model	3 – 1
NHL Power Rankings Model	4 – 2

All five models agree: Edmonton is likely to win by a margin of 1-3 goals, with the total goals scored staying under 6.5. This strong consensus supports the idea that Game 4 will be competitive but not a high-scoring shootout.

Final Prediction: Edmonton Oilers 4, Dallas Stars 2

The Oilers have the momentum, home ice, and star power advantage. Connor McDavid is playing like a man on a mission, and Edmonton’s depth makes them tough to stop. Dallas will fight hard, especially if Roope Hintz returns, and their power play could create scoring chances. However, the Oilers’ balanced attack and solid defense are likely to carry them to a 4-2 victory in Game 4.

What to Watch For in Game 4

Connor McDavid’s Impact: Expect McDavid to continue his strong performance. He’s a constant threat and can change the game in an instant.
Roope Hintz’s Return: If Hintz plays, watch how Dallas’ offense improves. His speed and skill could help break through Edmonton’s defense.
Jake Oettinger’s Response: Can Oettinger bounce back after a tough Game 3? His performance will be key to keeping Dallas competitive.
Special Teams: Power plays will be crucial. Dallas’ higher efficiency could make a difference if they draw penalties.
Physical Play and Discipline: Both teams need to avoid costly penalties that could shift momentum.

Conclusion

Game 4 between the Dallas Stars and Edmonton Oilers promises to be a pivotal and exciting matchup. Edmonton is favored to win and take a commanding 3-1 series lead, but Dallas has the talent and motivation to push back hard. The under 6.5 total goals is the smart expectation based on defensive adjustments, goaltending focus, and the nature of playoff hockey.

Fans should expect a competitive game with strong goaltending and tactical play. Edmonton’s star power and home advantage give them the edge, but Dallas will not go quietly.

PICK: Under 6.5 Total Goals WIN