D-Backs on the Road: Can They Take the Series in Pittsburgh?

The Arizona Diamondbacks and Pittsburgh Pirates face off in an intriguing NL matchup on July 26, 2025, at PNC Park. While neither team is in playoff contention, this game presents an interesting betting opportunity, with the Pirates listed as +117 home underdogs and the total set at 8.5 runs.

Arizona (51-53) sits 4th in the NL West, showing flashes of competitiveness but struggling with consistency. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh (42-62) is last in the NL Central, plagued by offensive woes and injuries. The Diamondbacks took a 1-0 extra-innings win in yesterday’s series opener, reinforcing the trend of low-scoring games between these two clubs.

Key Factors to Watch

1. Pitching Duel: Merrill Kelly vs. Andrew Heaney

The starting pitching matchup favors Arizona, with Merrill Kelly bringing stability and experience against a Pirates lineup that ranks among the worst in MLB against right-handed pitching. On the other side, Andrew Heaney has been inconsistent, with a tendency to give up home runs—a potential issue against an Arizona team that thrives on extra-base hits.

2. Injuries Decimating Both Rosters

Both teams are dealing with significant injuries, particularly in their pitching staffs. Arizona is missing key arms like Corbin Burnes and Jordan Montgomery, while Pittsburgh’s rotation is weakened by the absence of Jared Jones. Additionally, the Diamondbacks are without catcher Gabriel Moreno, which could impact their defensive game-calling.

3. Offensive Struggles & Recent Trends

The Pirates have been one of the worst offensive teams in baseball, ranking near the bottom in runs scored, OPS, and home runs. Arizona hasn’t been much better, but they’ve shown more pop in their lineup. Given yesterday’s 1-0 extra-innings final, another pitcher’s duel could be in store.

4. Bullpen & Late-Game Factors

Arizona’s bullpen has been middling but reliable, while Pittsburgh’s relief corps has struggled with consistency. If this game remains close late, the Diamondbacks may have a slight edge in high-leverage situations.

What to Expect in This Matchup

With two teams that have struggled offensively and strong starting pitching in play, this game could come down to which lineup can capitalize on mistakes. Will the Pirates’ home-field advantage make a difference, or will Arizona’s slightly superior roster pull through?

Top 5 MLB AI Model Predictions

My Custom Prediction (Using Advanced Metrics)

1. Pythagorean Win Expectation (Based on Run Differential)

• ARI: 51-53 (Run Diff: +12) → Expected Win% ≈ .513

• PIT: 42-62 (Run Diff: -78) → Expected Win% ≈ .420
  → ARI has a stronger run-scoring profile.

2. Strength of Schedule (SoS Adjusted)

• ARI SoS Rank: ~15th (Average)

• PIT SoS Rank: ~25th (Easier)
  → Slight edge to ARI due to facing tougher opponents.

3. Starting Pitcher Comparison

• Merrill Kelly (ARI): ~3.70 ERA, 1.20 WHIP (Solid control pitcher)

• Andrew Heaney (PIT): ~4.50 ERA, 1.35 WHIP (Struggles with HRs)
  → Kelly has the advantage, especially against a weak Pirates lineup.

4. Injuries & Lineup Impact

• ARI: Missing Gabriel Moreno (C), Corbin Burnes (SP), Jordan Montgomery (SP) – hurts depth but not today’s lineup drastically.

• PIT: Missing Jared Jones (SP), Endy Rodriguez (C) – weakens offense further.
  → Pirates’ already poor offense is further depleted.

5. Recent Trends

• ARI won 1-0 in 11 innings yesterday – suggests pitching dominance.

Final Custom Score Prediction:

ARI 4.8 – PIT 3.2 (ARI by ~1.6 runs)

Combined Prediction (AI Models + My Model)

Pick

• Take the Arizona Diamondbacks -117 Moneyline. ***LOSE***