Tuesday, May 14, 2024 at 7:20 p.m. ET, Truist Park Atlanta, GA
The Chicago Cubs and Atlanta Braves lock horns in the middle game of their three-game series on Tuesday night, with both teams looking to their starting pitchers to continue the trend of strong pitching performances witnessed in the series opener.
Top Prediction Models
- Dimers: Braves 4 – Cubs 2 (6 total runs)
- Underdog Chance: Braves 5 – Cubs 3 (8 total runs)
- Pythagorean Theorem: Braves 4.3 – Cubs 3.5 (7.8 total runs)
- My Prediction: Braves 4 – Cubs 2 (6 total runs)
Final Prediction
- Braves Win (Slight Favorite): This combines the model average with the factors mentioned above. Expect a close game with the Braves edging out the Cubs, possibly by a score of 4-2.
Overall, the models and my prediction suggest a low-scoring game, likely falling under the Over/Under line of 8 runs.
Dueling Arms Take Center Stage
Jameson Taillon (3-0, 1.13 ERA) toes the rubber for the Cubs, boasting a scorching start to the season. His microscopic ERA paints a picture of dominance, allowing a mere 3 earned runs across his 24 innings pitched. Furthermore, Taillon has a history of success against the Braves, holding a 1-0 record with a respectable 2.50 ERA in three career starts against them.
Opposing him on the mound is the ever-reliable Chris Sale (5-1, 2.95 ERA) for the Braves. Sale has been in a groove lately, surrendering just 2 runs in his last 18 innings pitched. He also boasts a winning record against the Cubs, going 2-1 with a stellar 1.23 ERA in his limited career meetings with them (most recently in 2016).
Offensive Contrasts: Power vs. Averages
While the pitching matchup screams a low-scoring affair, the offensive profiles of both teams paint a slightly different picture. The Braves boast a potent lineup, currently ranking 7th in MLB with a team batting average of .261. They can put runs on the board in bunches, as evidenced by their recent stretch where they’ve won 5 of their last 6 games.
On the other hand, the Cubs struggle offensively, ranking a lowly 18th in MLB with a team batting average of just .248. Their recent form reflects this offensive anemia, going just 5-5 in their last 10 games.
Injuries and Trends Favor the Under
The Braves are expected to get a boost with the potential return of star third baseman Austin Riley (day-to-day). However, the Cubs lose a key arm in reliever Adbert Alzolay (right forearm strain), who lands on the IL. Historically, the Braves hold a significant home-field advantage against the Cubs, winning 13 of their last 20 meetings at Truist Park.
Pythagorean Theorem and Model Consensus Support Under
The Pythagorean Theorem, a formula estimating a team’s winning percentage based on runs scored and allowed, suggests a close game with the Braves holding a slight edge (Braves 4.3 runs – Cubs 3.5 runs). This aligns with the predictions of various statistical models like Dimers (Braves 4 – Cubs 2) and Underdog Chance (Braves 5 – Cubs 3).
The Verdict: Under 8 Runs the Smart Play
Considering the dominant pitching performances from both starters, the Cubs’ offensive struggles, and the historical trends favoring low-scoring games at Truist Park, the Under 8 runs appears to be the more attractive betting option. While the Braves’ potent offense can’t be ignored, Taillon’s recent dominance and Sale’s track record against the Cubs suggest a pitcher’s duel. Add the Pythagorean Theorem and model consensus leaning towards a low-scoring affair, and the Under becomes the safer bet.
Pick: Under 8
