On September 3, 2025, the Atlanta Braves traveled to Wrigley Field to face the Chicago Cubs as road underdogs (+129), while the Cubs entered as home favorites (-155). The spread was set at 1.5 runs with a total of 8, and multiple AI-driven sports betting models weighed in with their predictions.
Model Projections
Five reputable outlets provided score projections ahead of first pitch:
-
OddsShark Computer: Cubs 4.9, Braves 4.5
-
AP/Data Skrive (via FOX, Bleacher Nation, Yahoo): Cubs 4, Braves 3
-
Tony’s Picks Projection: Cubs 5, Braves 3
When averaged, these models produced a consensus score of Cubs 4.63, Braves 3.50, with a projected total of 8.13 runs. Collectively, the AI models leaned strongly toward a Cubs victory by a one-run margin.
Context: Injuries, Starters, and Form
Chicago sent Cade Horton (sub-3.00 ERA) to the mound against Atlanta’s Bryce Elder, who had been struggling with a 6.30 ERA over his last seven starts.
The Braves entered shorthanded, missing key contributors like Austin Riley and Reynaldo López, while the Cubs listed Kyle Tucker as day-to-day. Atlanta’s offense, already sputtering, faced a daunting task against Horton’s command and Wrigley’s home-field advantage.
Advanced Metrics Analysis
Independent projections based on the Pythagorean theorem and strength of schedule reinforced the Cubs’ edge.
-
Cubs (Pythagorean W-L): 91–60 (.603)
-
Braves (Pythagorean W-L): 65–86 (.430)
Using Log5 win probability, Chicago’s baseline win chance stood at 66.8%. Factoring in home-field advantage, Horton’s edge over Elder, and Atlanta’s injuries, the Cubs’ probability rose to nearly 70–71%, equating to a fair line around -233—substantially better than the market’s -155 price.
The independent projection landed on a Cubs 5, Braves 3 outcome, perfectly aligned with Tony’s Picks and in line with the market total of 8.
