The Chicago Cubs and Atlanta Braves square off again tonight at Wrigley Field in game two of their three-game series. The Cubs rallied for a thrilling 7-6 win on Monday, powered by Carson Kelly’s two-run homer in the eighth inning and a walk-off single in the 10th. With September baseball heating up, the Cubs are chasing playoff positioning while the Braves, who have struggled throughout the season, look to play spoiler. Tonight’s matchup features left-handers Shota Imanaga for the Cubs and Joey Wentz for the Braves, two pitchers with very different profiles heading into this contest. Let’s dive into the numbers, player form, and overall outlook for this game.

Team Form and Context

Chicago Cubs (79-59)

The Cubs enter tonight in strong playoff contention, sitting at 20 games above .500. They’ve shown resilience, highlighted by Monday’s comeback. Carson Kelly, after slumping in August, delivered when it mattered most, and Pete Crow-Armstrong found a way to contribute with his speed despite battling a prolonged slump at the plate. Manager Craig Counsell’s club has depth, balanced hitting, and reliable pitching, making them tough to beat at home.

Atlanta Braves (62-76)

The Braves are under .500 and out of the playoff race, but they remain competitive in spurts. Injuries have gutted their roster, with star third baseman Austin Riley and several bullpen arms unavailable. On Monday, they built a 6-1 lead only to see it slip away, underscoring their bullpen weakness. While Joey Wentz pitched well in his last start against Miami, consistency has been his biggest challenge.

Pitching Matchup

Shota Imanaga (Cubs)

Record: 8-6
ERA: 3.08 (117 IP)
WHIP: 0.93
Strikeout-to-Walk Ratio: 4.32

Imanaga has been everything the Cubs hoped for. Even though he didn’t pick up wins in August, his ERA was an excellent 2.65, showing that the lack of run support—not poor performance—kept him from adding to his win total. He’s consistently gone deep into games, tossing seven innings in each of his last three starts. Against the Braves in 2024, he delivered five scoreless innings. His ability to limit base traffic makes him a tough matchup for a depleted Atlanta lineup.

Joey Wentz (Braves)

Record: 5-4
ERA: 4.92 (78.2 IP)
WHIP: 1.42
Strikeout-to-Walk Ratio: 1.86

Wentz is with his third team of the season, showing flashes of effectiveness but struggling to sustain momentum. His most recent outing was solid—6.2 innings, 1 earned run versus the Marlins. However, just before that, he allowed six runs in 3.1 innings against the Mets. His career numbers against the Cubs are troubling, with a 14.40 ERA across five relief outings. The Cubs’ lineup has had success against him in limited appearances, and facing them at Wrigley will be a challenge.

Injuries and Lineup Factors

Braves Key Injuries

Austin Riley (abdomen) – out for the season
Joe Jiménez, Reynaldo López, Grant Holmes (bullpen) – all out for the season
Multiple pitchers are sidelined until at least September 8

This is a major blow. Riley is one of Atlanta’s best hitters, and the bullpen losses leave manager Brian Snitker short on reliable arms to finish games.

Cubs Key Injuries

Justin Steele (elbow) – out for the season
Jameson Taillon and Ryan Brasier – short-term injuries
Miguel Amaya (ankle) – out until mid-September

The Cubs are also missing pitchers, but their depth has carried them. Their everyday lineup remains intact, which gives them an advantage.

Predicted Scores by Models

To add weight to the analysis, here are projected outcomes from five trusted prediction systems:

FanGraphs: Cubs 5, Braves 3
Baseball Prospectus PECOTA: Cubs 4, Braves 2
FiveThirtyEight MLB model: Cubs 4, Braves 3
The Action Network: Cubs 5, Braves 2
Massey Ratings: Cubs 4, Braves 3

Across all models, the Cubs are projected to win by a margin of one to three runs, with the total runs consistently falling at or under 8.

Why I’m Confident in the Under 8 Total Runs Prediction

Several key factors point toward a lower-scoring game tonight:

Pitching Quality – Imanaga’s 0.93 WHIP and ability to work deep into games greatly reduce scoring opportunities. Wentz is inconsistent, but his last outing showed he’s capable of limiting damage when he finds the strike zone.
Atlanta’s Lineup Losses – Without Austin Riley, the Braves lose a powerful middle-order bat. They are far less threatening offensively, relying on depth players and call-ups who lack consistent production.
Weather at Wrigley Field – Tonight’s forecast shows light winds blowing in, which historically reduces home runs at Wrigley. With cooler evening temperatures, run production is less likely to spike.
Model Support – All five models listed above predict totals of 6–8 runs, which aligns with the Under. None project a game exceeding 8 runs.
Recent Trends – The Cubs’ offense has been streaky, and while Kelly and Swanson delivered big hits yesterday, expecting repeated late-inning fireworks against any pitcher isn’t sustainable.

Given these combined factors, a final score in the range of 4–2 or 5–3 feels more realistic than a slugfest.

What to Watch For

Carson Kelly’s Momentum: Can he build on Monday’s breakout and become a September spark for the Cubs?
Pete Crow-Armstrong’s Adjustment: Will his willingness to change approach, like bunting for hits, translate into better results?
Wentz’s Consistency: Can he follow up his strong outing against Miami, or will inconsistency return against a tougher Cubs lineup?
Imanaga’s Efficiency: If he continues his string of seven-inning starts, the Braves will have few chances to do damage.

Conclusion

The Cubs and Braves bring very different storylines into tonight’s game. Chicago is focused on strengthening its playoff push, while Atlanta is looking toward next season, trying to develop depth after injuries devastated its roster. With Shota Imanaga on the mound and the Braves missing key hitters, the pitching and weather conditions point toward a controlled, lower-scoring game. Most models agree this contest will stay at or below eight runs, with the Cubs holding the clear edge. Fans should look for steady pitching, selective hitting, and a tighter scoreboard rather than an offensive explosion.

My pick: under 8 total runs WIN