Quick summary (TL;DR)

• Average of available model/analyst score predictions: Cubs 4.0 — Mets 2.3 → round to Cubs 4 — Mets 2 (models we could read: FoxSports, PicksAndParlays, PickDawgz + several analyst picks).

• My independent prediction (with Pythagorean / context): Cubs 4 — Mets 2 (I get a lower-scoring Cubs win). Sources used for lineup/pitchers and team run rates: ESPN / MLB / FanGraphs.

• Final betting recommendation: Take Chicago Cubs (moneyline) — also lean Under 7.5. Confidence: moderate (~56–62%) given Horton vs Peterson and Cubs home edge.

Models / sources I checked

1. ESPN Matchup / probable pitchers / matchup predictor — lists David Peterson (NYM) vs Cade Horton (CHC) and shows ESPN matchup win probabilities (Cubs favored).

2. SportsLine — matchup page / model simulation (projected-score tool is behind subscriber wall but SportsLine’s publicly visible lean and public/money splits were used as a reputable model reference).

3. BetQL — matchup preview and trends (used as a reputable AI/stat model reference). (page available).

4. FanGraphs / projections / team metrics — used for runs scored (RS/G) and runs allowed (RA/G) to run Pythagorean expectation.

5. Public analyst/model score predictions (FoxSports, PicksAndParlays, PickDawgz, Docsports, others) — several public picks explicitly predicted scores (examples: FoxSports 4–3 Cubs; PicksAndParlays & PickDawgz 4–2 Cubs). I averaged those available score predictions.

(Notes: SportsLine and some other top models hide exact projected-score simulations behind subscription paywalls — I used their public probabilities/summary and multiple free expert projections to assemble an averaged projected score.)

How I averaged model score predictions

The only explicitly numeric score predictions I could fetch on public pages were:

• FoxSports → Cubs 4, Mets 3.

• PicksAndParlays → Cubs 4, Mets 2.

• PickDawgz → Cubs 4, Mets 2.

Average (simple mean):

• Cubs: (4 + 4 + 4) / 3 = 4.0

• Mets: (3 + 2 + 2) / 3 = 2.333… ≈ 2.3

So the averaged model prediction ≈ Cubs 4 — Mets 2.3, round to Cubs 4 — Mets 2 for a practical boxscore pick.

My independent analysis (step-by-step)

1) Probable pitchers and matchup context

• Cubs: Cade Horton (RHP) — very good season by ERA/WHIP (listed 11–4, 2.66 ERA in the matchup page). Home park (Wrigley) helps.

• Mets: David Peterson (LHP) — solid but not elite (listed ~9–6, 3.98 ERA).

Horton’s numbers and home ballpark give the Cubs the pitching edge in this particular start.

2) Pythagorean expectation (I used team RS and RA per game from FanGraphs and the basic Pythagorean formula with exponent 2)

I performed the arithmetic explicitly so you can follow each digit:

• Mets: RS/G = 4.74, RA/G = 4.38.

  • RS² = 4.74 × 4.74 = 22.4676

  • RA² = 4.38 × 4.38 = 19.1844

  • Pythagorean Win% = 22.4676 ÷ (22.4676 + 19.1844) = 22.4676 ÷ 41.6520 = 0.539412… = 53.94%.

• Cubs: RS/G = 4.81, RA/G = 4.01.

  • RS² = 4.81 × 4.81 = 23.1361

  • RA² = 4.01 × 4.01 = 16.0801

  • Pythagorean Win% = 23.1361 ÷ (23.1361 + 16.0801) = 23.1361 ÷ 39.2162 = 0.5899628… = 58.99%.

Interpretation: the Pythagorean check shows the Cubs are the stronger team by runs-based expectation (roughly a ~59% quality vs ~54% for Mets ignoring matchup/pitcher). That aligns with Cubs being the favorite in most model/oddsmaker outputs.

3) Strength of schedule, rest, and recent trends

• FanGraphs / TeamRankings trend pages show Cubs have a better run prevention (lower RA/G) and solid home record (46–29 at home per ESPN page), while Mets have struggled on the road and are slipping in form (Mets 4–6 last 10; recent road woes noted across preview coverage). Those trends favor the Cubs in a neutral-to-low scoring game.

4) Injury / roster news checked

• MLB/ESPN injury pages mention Tyrone Taylor and Joey Meneses statuses — some activations/IL timing around Sept. 23 that could slightly affect bench depth/lineup. No headline injury to a core starter for either team was listed that removed a major bat tonight. (I checked ESPN/MLB injury pages).

My predicted final score (explicit)

Chicago Cubs 4 — New York Mets 2.

Rationale: Cade Horton’s strong season + Cubs home environment + Cubs better run prevention (FanGraphs) + multiple public model/analyst picks clustering at Cubs 4–2 / 4–3. The Pythagorean expectation supports the Cubs advantage.

Betting recommendation (practical)

Pick: Under 7.5 runs — I lean Under because Horton is sharp and Peterson can limit big innings; models and several analysts also favor a lower-scoring game. If you prefer spread play, Cubs -1.5 is riskier (needs them to win by 2) but some markets show Mets as the +1.5 team on the run line (market quirks vary).

How my pick compares to the averaged models

My PICK: Total Points UNDER 7.5