Cubs’ Offensive Surge Meets Marlins’ Pitching Woes: Who Has the Edge?

The Chicago Cubs roll into Miami on Monday, May 19, 2025, riding high as NL Central leaders (28-19), while the struggling Marlins (18-27) look to play spoiler in what could be a pivotal early-season matchup. With Edward Cabrera returning from injury to face Cubs’ right-hander Ben Brown, this game presents an intriguing battle between a surging contender and a team searching for consistency.

Cubs’ Offensive Firepower Meets Marlins’ Pitching Question Marks

Chicago’s lineup has been among the most productive in the NL, even with key injuries to Ian Happ and Justin Steele. The Cubs’ ability to manufacture runs, ranking top 10 in OBP and slugging, will test a Marlins pitching staff that has been plagued. Cabrera, making his first start since returning from the IL, will need to shake off the rust quickly against a disciplined Cubs offense.

On the other side, Ben Brown has been a steady presence for Chicago, posting a 3.86 ERA with solid command. If he can neutralize Miami’s inconsistent bats, the Cubs could control this game early.

Marlins’ Uphill Battle: Can They Exploit Cubs’ Bullpen?

Miami’s offense has been among the weakest in baseball, ranking near the bottom in runs scored and OPS. However, they’re coming off a series win against the Rays, showing signs of life. If Cabrera can limit damage and the Marlins’ bats can capitalize against a Cubs bullpen missing key arms (Brasier, Miller, Imanaga), they might keep this game tight.

Key Factors to Watch

• Cabrera’s Health & Effectiveness: If he’s sharp, Miami has a shot. If not, the Cubs could feast.

• Cubs’ Road Dominance: Chicago has been strong away from Wrigley, while Miami has struggled at home.

• Bullpen Woes: Both teams are missing relievers, but the Marlins’ depth is thinner.

Will the Cubs continue their march toward October, or can the Marlins pull off an upset at home? First pitch is set for 6:40 PM ET—don’t miss this NL showdown.

Top 5 MLB AI Betting Models

Simulated AI Model Predictions (Avg. Score)

My Custom Prediction (Pythagorean Theorem + Strength of Schedule)

• Pythagorean Win Expectation (MLB-adjusted exponent ~1.83)

  • Cubs Runs Scored (RS): 4.5 | Runs Allowed (RA): 3.7
    → Win% = (4.5^1.83) / (4.5^1.83 + 3.7^1.83) = ~59.2%

  • Marlins RS: 3.6 | RA: 4.9
    → Win% = ~39.1%

• Strength of Schedule (SOS-Adjusted)

  • Cubs have faced a top-10 toughest schedule.

  • Marlins have faced a bottom-5 schedule.
    → Adjust the Cubs’ offensive projection up slightly, and the Marlins down slightly.

• Pitching Matchup

  • Ben Brown (CHC): 3.86 ERA, 1.21 WHIP (solid but not elite).

  • Edward Cabrera (MIA): 4.12 ERA, 1.32 WHIP (coming off injury, slight risk).

• Injuries Impact

  • Cubs missing key bats (Ian Happ) & bullpen arms.

  • Marlins are missing multiple relievers & starters (Eury Perez, Braxton Garrett).
    → Bullpen edge slightly to Cubs despite injuries.

My Predicted Score: Cubs 5.0 – Marlins 3.1

Combined Prediction (AI Avg + My Model)

Betting Recommendation

• Moneyline: Cubs are favored (~60% implied win prob).

  • Marlins +159 is tempting, but Cubs have a better bullpen & lineup.

  • Lean: Cubs ML (if -140 or better).

• Total (8.5): AI models & my prediction suggest ~8.1 runs.

  • Lean: Under 8.5 (-110).

Pick

• Take under 8.5 total runs.