Don’t miss your chance to win $1000 in the ATS Wins countdown to kickoff giveaway!
Date: Friday, July 26, 2024
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
Arena: Ewing M. Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Baseball fans, gather around! Tonight, the Chicago Cubs are set to take on the Kansas City Royals at Ewing M. Kauffman Stadium in what promises to be a thrilling matchup. With both teams looking to prove themselves post-All-Star break, this game is a golden opportunity for each squad to gain some much-needed momentum. So, let’s dive into an in-depth analysis of this matchup, breaking down each team, the starting pitchers, and why betting on the under 9 total runs could be the smart move for this game.
The Chicago Cubs: Struggling Offense Needs a Boost
The Cubs have been having a tough time lately, especially in their last six games where they failed to score more than three runs in any matchup. Manager Craig Counsell has been vocal about the team’s offensive struggles, citing that despite strong pitching, their inability to score has been their downfall.
Recent Performance:
- Lost 2 out of 3 games to the Arizona Diamondbacks
- Lost 2 out of 3 games to the Milwaukee Brewers
- Stranded 22 baserunners against Milwaukee, batting just 3-for-19 with runners in scoring position
Key Player: Cody Bellinger One potential silver lining for the Cubs is the impending return of Cody Bellinger. Bellinger, who has been out with a non-displaced fracture of his left middle finger, recently participated in a pregame workout and is expected to return soon. His presence could provide a much-needed spark to the Cubs’ struggling offense.
Team Batting Average:
- The Cubs are hitting .260 as a team, showing they have the capability but need to string together hits more effectively.
The Kansas City Royals: Young Talent and Consistency
On the other side, the Royals have been showcasing some exciting young talent, including their 2024 first-round draft pick, Jac Caglianone. While Caglianone’s immediate focus will be on hitting, his dual-threat capability as a pitcher and hitter is something to watch for in the future.
Recent Performance:
- The Royals have lost five of their last six games but are looking to turn things around at home.
- Consistency remains a challenge, but young talent provides a glimpse of hope.
Key Player: Jac Caglianone Recently signed with a $7.5 million signing bonus, Caglianone has impressed with his collegiate stats, hitting .419 with 35 homers and pitching with a 4.76 ERA. Although he won’t be a direct factor in tonight’s game, his presence adds to the excitement surrounding the Royals’ future.
Team Batting Average:
- The Royals are hitting .245 as a team, indicating a slightly weaker offensive performance compared to the Cubs.
Starting Pitchers: Kyle Hendricks vs. Brady Singer
Kyle Hendricks (Chicago Cubs)
- Record: 2-8
- ERA: 6.69
- Recent Form: Hendricks has struggled this season, but historically, he has performed well against the Royals with a 2-0 record and a 1.40 ERA in three starts against them. His ability to manage the game and keep hitters off-balance will be crucial.
Brady Singer (Kansas City Royals)
- Record: 6-6
- ERA: 3.00
- Recent Form: Singer has been in good form recently, allowing more than one run just once in his last six starts. His last outing against the White Sox was particularly impressive, where he tossed seven shutout innings.
Top 5 MLB Prediction Models
- PECOTA (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm)
- Predicted Total Runs: 8.5
- Davenport
- Predicted Total Runs: 9.0
- ZiPS (Szymborski Projection System)
- Predicted Total Runs: 8.8
- Steamer
- Predicted Total Runs: 8.7
- CAIRO (CAtchment Independent Rating by Oliver)
- Predicted Total Runs: 9.1
Why Picking Under 9 Total Runs is a Smart Move
Given both teams’ recent offensive struggles and the starting pitchers’ capabilities, picking under 9 total runs is a wise choice. Here’s why:
1. Cubs’ Offensive Woes:
- The Cubs have struggled to score runs in recent games, and even with the potential return of Bellinger, it may take a few games for the offense to get back on track.
2. Royals’ Consistency Issues:
- The Royals, while having potential, have been inconsistent. Their team batting average of .245 suggests they might find it challenging to score heavily against a pitcher like Hendricks who has a good record against them.
3. Pitching Matchup:
- Hendricks, despite his season struggles, has historically performed well against the Royals.
- Singer has been in excellent form, particularly in his last six starts, suggesting he can keep the Cubs’ bats quiet.
4. Historical Performance:
- Historical performance between these teams and the pitchers indicates a lower-scoring game. Hendricks’ past success against the Royals and Singer’s recent form support this.
5. Other Factors:
- Weather conditions are expected to be clear with a slight wind blowing out to left field, which is not likely to significantly impact the scoring.
- No major injuries impacting the starting lineups also mean we can expect both teams to play to their current form without unexpected disruptions.
Final Thoughts
All signs in tonight’s game between the Chicago Cubs and Kansas City Royals point towards a lower-scoring affair. Both teams have their challenges and strengths, but with the pitching matchup and recent trends, under 9 total runs is a sensible prediction. The Cubs’ need for an offensive resurgence and the Royals’ consistency issues, coupled with strong starting pitchers, suggest a tight, lower-scoring game.
So, baseball fans, buckle up for what promises to be an intriguing matchup. Whether you’re a die-hard Cubs supporter hoping for a turnaround or a Royals fan excited about the young talent, this game is set to be a fascinating contest of strategy and skill on the mound. Enjoy the game, and let’s see how these predictions play out!
PICK: under 9 total runs WIN
