The Western Conference Final between the Edmonton Oilers and the Dallas Stars has been everything hockey fans could hope for—tight games, elite talent, and momentum shifts that keep you glued to your seat. With the series tied 1-1, Game 3 at Rogers Place in Edmonton on Sunday, May 25, 2025, becomes a crucial turning point. Whoever wins this one puts themselves in the driver’s seat to reach the Stanley Cup Final.

Let’s break it all down—team strengths, key injuries, what the stats are telling us, and why the Oilers have the edge heading into this pivotal matchup. And yes, we’ll also talk about why betting the over on total goals is looking like a smart move.

Why Game 3 Is a Big Deal

When a best-of-seven series is tied 1-1, Game 3 is often the swing game. Historically, the team that wins Game 3 in this scenario goes on to win the series about 66% of the time. That makes this showdown in Edmonton a massive opportunity for both clubs.

This isn’t just another playoff game—it’s a momentum shift waiting to happen. The Oilers and Stars both know it, and that’s exactly why we’re expecting a high-intensity, high-stakes battle.

Team Breakdown: Who’s Got the Edge?

Edmonton Oilers: Firing on All Cylinders at Home

Let’s start with the Oilers. Simply put, they’re playing some of their best hockey right now, especially at home. They’re 4-1 at Rogers Place in this postseason, feeding off the energy of a passionate home crowd that knows how to make life tough for visiting teams.

Their offense is elite, averaging 3.58 goals per game in the playoffs—top-tier production led by none other than Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. These two are dynamic playmakers who can tilt the ice in Edmonton’s favor every time they step on it.

But the real story? Goaltender Stuart Skinner. He’s been a brick wall lately, recording three shutouts in his last four games. That’s not just good—that’s game-changing. He’s giving the Oilers the confidence to push forward offensively, knowing their net is in safe hands.

Special teams also play a role. While their power play isn’t as deadly as Dallas’s, it’s still clicking when it counts. And their penalty kill has tightened up, which could be huge against a Dallas team that relies heavily on the man advantage.

Dallas Stars: Dangerous but Dinged Up

Dallas is not a team you can overlook. They’ve shown grit—just look at their comeback win in Game 1, when they erased a two-goal deficit to beat Edmonton 6-3. They’ve got playoff experience, physicality, and a power play that converts 33.3% of the time—the best among the remaining playoff teams.

But there are red flags.

Their road power play drops to just 17.7%, and their even-strength scoring has been inconsistent. Key players haven’t contributed much at 5-on-5, and that’s a concern when you’re playing in a tough barn like Rogers Place.

Even more worrying: injuries. Roope Hintz is questionable after taking a slash to the leg in Game 2. He couldn’t put weight on his foot and left the game early. If he can’t go, that’s a major blow to Dallas’s offensive depth. They’re also still without Tyler Seguin, further thinning their forward group.

Defensively, they’ve been solid but not spectacular. Jake Oettinger is capable of stealing games, but Edmonton’s speed and offensive zone pressure have exposed cracks in the Stars’ defensive coverage.

Injury Report: Who’s In and Who’s Out?

Dallas Stars:

Roope Hintz (day-to-day) – A huge question mark. If he’s out, Dallas loses one of their most important offensive drivers.
Tyler Seguin (out) – Still recovering from hip surgery, and his absence continues to limit their scoring options.

Edmonton Oilers:

Mattias Ekholm (out) – Losing this key defenseman hurts, but Edmonton’s structure has held up surprisingly well.
Calvin Pickard (backup goalie, out) – Not a major concern thanks to Stuart Skinner’s stellar form.

The Numbers Game: Stats & Predictive Models

When you line these teams up statistically, Edmonton has the edge in a few critical areas:

Goals per game: Edmonton (3.58) vs. Dallas (2.60)
Goals against per game: Edmonton (2.92) vs. Dallas (2.85) — a slight edge to Dallas, but nearly even
Power play: Dallas wins here overall, but the Oilers close the gap with their recent penalty kill improvements and momentum

Let’s take a look at what the predictive models are saying:

Model	Predicted Score (EDM vs. DAL)
Opta Analyst	6 – 2
Sportsbook Review	3 – 2
ClutchPoints	4 – 3
The Analyst’s TRACR	4 – 2
Sports Betting Dime	5 – 2

All five models lean toward an Oilers win, with projected goal totals mostly hovering at or above 6.

Why the Over 6 Goals Is a Smart Bet

If you’re looking at the betting lines, the total goals line is set at 6. Here’s why the over is worth your consideration:

Edmonton averages 3.58 goals per game. That’s nearly four goals on their own.
Dallas still puts up 2.60 goals per game, and their power play can strike fast.
Game 1 hit 6 goals. Game 2 had 3, but with more power play time and a faster pace expected in Game 3, scoring could easily increase.
Both teams have explosive forwards capable of turning a game around in one shift.
The average predicted score from the models? Somewhere between 5 and 7 total goals.

Even with solid goaltending, the firepower on both sides makes this one of those games where a 4-3 final isn’t just possible—it’s likely.

X-Factors That Tip the Scales Toward Edmonton

Home Ice Advantage: Rogers Place is LOUD. The Oilers feed off that energy, and Dallas has struggled to strike first on the road.
Momentum: Edmonton bounced back in Game 2 with a statement win. That kind of mental toughness counts when things get tight.
Goaltending: Stuart Skinner is locked in. Three shutouts in four games? That’s elite.
Injuries: Dallas could be without one of its best offensive weapons in Hintz. That’s a big hole to fill.

Final Prediction: Edmonton Oilers 4, Dallas Stars 2

The Oilers have the offense. They have the goaltending. They have the crowd. And they have the momentum.

While Dallas is talented and resilient, their injuries and road inconsistencies make it hard to pick them in this one—especially with Edmonton’s top stars in full stride.

Prediction: Oilers 4, Stars 2.
Smart Bet: Take the OVER 6 total goals.

This series has all the makings of a classic, and Game 3 could be the turning point. Expect a fast-paced, high-energy game loaded with scoring chances and highlight-reel plays. Whether you’re cheering for Dallas’s resilience or rooting for Edmonton’s home dominance, this is one hockey battle you don’t want to miss.

Puck drops at 3:00 PM ET. Buckle up—this one’s going to be fun.

My Prediction: OVER 6 total goals