Tonight’s showdown between the Texas Longhorns (13-9) and the Kansas State Wildcats (15-10) presents an intriguing Big 12 matchup. While Texas holds a home-court advantage and a slightly better record, Kansas State shouldn’t be underestimated. Let’s dive into the data and make an informed pick.
Model Predictions:
- ESPN BPI: Texas 78.9, Kansas State 74.3 (Texas by 4.6)
- CBS Sports: Texas 77, Kansas State 72 (Texas by 5)
- KenPom: Texas 79, Kansas State 73 (Texas by 6)
- StatMuse: Texas 78, Kansas State 75 (Texas by 3)
- Massey: Texas 77, Kansas State 70 (Texas by 7)
- FiveThirtyEight: Texas 76, Kansas State 70 (Texas by 6)
- BetQL: Texas -8.5 (Spread), Under 142 (Total)
- SportsLine: Texas -8 (Spread), Under 143 (Total)
Average: Texas by 5.1 (Spread), Under 142.3 (Total)
Pythagorean Theorem:
- Texas: Points Scored/Possessions = 1.12, Points Allowed/Possessions = 0.97 (Expected W-L Record: 16.4-8.6)
- Kansas State: Points Scored/Possessions = 1.06, Points Allowed/Possessions = 1.02 (Expected W-L Record: 15.3-10.7)
Strength of Schedule:
- Texas: 52nd nationally (KenPom)
- Kansas State: 67th nationally (KenPom)
Other Factors:
- Injuries: No key players reported injured for either team.
- Trends: Texas has dominated at home this season (13-2), while Kansas State has struggled on the road (6-7).
- Weather: No weather concerns expected in Austin.
Against The Spread (ATS):
- Texas: 9-16 this season, exceeding spread predictions less than half the time.
- Kansas State: 12-13 ATS, covering slightly more than expected.
Over/Under (O/U):
- Texas: 14-10-1, hitting the total just over half the time, leaning slightly towards unders.
- Kansas State: 12-13-0, hitting the total exactly half the time, offering no clear bias.
Analysis:
While the models and metrics favor Texas due to their offensive efficiency and home court advantage, their struggles to cover the spread raise questions. Kansas State’s road struggles can’t be ignored, but their ATS record suggests they might keep things closer than expected.
Final Pick:
Based on the combined data, I predict a closer game than the spread suggests. My final score is Texas 77, Kansas State 72. However, considering Texas’ ATS struggles and Kansas State’s recent covers, taking Kansas State +8.5 on the spread could be a more appealing option.
PICK: TAKE Kansas State +8.5
