The Memphis Tigers (23-5, 13-2 AAC) and the UAB Blazers (19-9, 12-3 AAC) are set to clash in a pivotal matchup at Bartow Arena in Birmingham, Alabama. This game carries significant weight in the American Athletic Conference (AAC) standings, with Memphis holding a narrow one-game lead over both UAB and North Texas. The outcome of this contest could have substantial implications for conference supremacy and postseason positioning.
Coaching Analysis
Memphis is led by head coach Penny Hardaway, a former NBA All-Star who has been at the helm since 2018. Hardaway’s tenure has been marked by his ability to recruit top talent and implement an up-tempo style of play. However, the Tigers have experienced fluctuations in performance, with notable highs and midseason struggles in recent years. Hardaway’s in-game adjustments and strategic acumen will be crucial in navigating this high-stakes matchup.
UAB’s head coach, Andy Kennedy, brings a wealth of experience and a track record of success. Under his guidance, the Blazers have developed a reputation for tenacious defense and efficient offense. Kennedy’s ability to maximize his roster’s potential and make timely in-game adjustments has been instrumental in UAB’s recent achievements, including an AAC Tournament title.
Home Court Advantage
Bartow Arena provides UAB with a formidable home-court advantage. The Blazers have historically performed well at home, with the energetic crowd playing a pivotal role in boosting team morale and performance. Conversely, Memphis has faced challenges on the road, where hostile environments have occasionally disrupted their rhythm. The intensity of the Blazers’ fan base could influence the game’s momentum, especially during critical stretches.
Tempo
Both teams favor an up-tempo style of play, aiming to capitalize on transition opportunities. Memphis averages 79.8 points per game, while UAB leads the AAC with 83.4 points per game. The Blazers’ pace is particularly noteworthy, as they excel in offensive rebounding, securing 39.4% of available boards, which ranks fourth nationally. This aggressive approach on the glass often leads to additional possessions and scoring opportunities.
Three-Point Shooting
Memphis boasts a commendable three-point shooting percentage of 39%, reflecting their ability to stretch defenses and create spacing. UAB, while leading the AAC in assists with 16.5 per game, has struggled defensively against perimeter shooting, allowing opponents to convert 35% of their three-point attempts. This discrepancy could be a focal point, with Memphis potentially exploiting UAB’s vulnerability beyond the arc.
Strength of Schedule
Evaluating the strength of schedule reveals that both teams have faced formidable opponents throughout the season. Memphis has secured notable victories against top-tier teams, showcasing their resilience and adaptability. UAB’s schedule has been equally challenging, with the Blazers demonstrating consistency, particularly in conference play. Both teams’ performances against common opponents have been competitive, indicating a well-matched contest.
Advanced Metrics
According to KenPom ratings, UAB’s offense ranks 39th nationally in efficiency, underscoring their scoring prowess. Memphis is ranked 61st in offensive efficiency but has encountered issues with turnovers, which could be detrimental against a team that thrives on extra possessions. Defensively, Memphis’s struggle with defensive rebounding, ranking 333rd nationally, could be a significant factor, especially against UAB’s dominant offensive rebounding.
Historical Matchups
Historically, matchups between Memphis and UAB have been closely contested, with each team securing victories in recent seasons. Player matchups, particularly in the frontcourt, have often been decisive. The battle between Memphis’s Dain Dainja and UAB’s Yaxel Lendeborg is anticipated to be a key determinant in the game’s outcome, given their respective impacts on scoring and rebounding.
Conference Implications
The significance of this game extends beyond the immediate result, as it could determine the regular-season champion of the AAC. A Memphis victory would provide a two-game cushion atop the standings, while a UAB win would create a tie, intensifying the race for the top seed in the conference tournament. Additionally, the outcome could influence NCAA tournament seeding, with both teams aiming to enhance their résumés.
Public Betting Trends and Line Movement
As of the latest reports, Memphis is favored with a moneyline of -116, while UAB stands at -103. The spread is set at 1.5 points, and the total for the game is 161.5 points. Betting trends indicate a slight lean towards Memphis, reflecting public confidence in the Tigers. However, the narrow spread and moneyline suggest expectations of a tightly contested game.
Situational Factors
Both teams enter this matchup with considerable momentum. Memphis has won nine of their last ten games, with an average margin of victory of 10.7 points. UAB has been equally impressive, winning eight of their last ten, albeit with a narrower average margin of 3.6 points. The Blazers’ home-court advantage and recent form could provide them with a psychological edge.
Projections from Respected NCAAB Prediction Models
Incorporating projections from five respected NCAAB prediction models, including KenPom, Sagarin Ratings, Torvik, Haslametrics, and Bart Torvik, the consensus indicates a closely contested game. The average predicted final score across these models is Memphis 82, UAB 80. The models highlight Memphis’s shooting efficiency and UAB’s rebounding dominance as critical factors.
Predicted Final Score
Considering the comprehensive analysis, the projected final score is:
Memphis Tigers 82, UAB Blazers 80
Confidence Level:
This prediction carries a medium confidence level due to the closeness of the matchup. While Memphis holds slight advantages in shooting efficiency and backcourt depth, UAB’s rebounding edge and home-court advantage could tilt the game in their favor. The tight spread and near-even moneyline reflect how evenly matched these teams are.
Recommended Bet Type
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Best Bet: Over 161.5 Total Points
- Both teams play at a high pace and excel in offensive production.
- UAB ranks 39th in offensive efficiency, while Memphis is also strong in transition play.
- Both teams allow opponents to shoot effectively from deep, which could lead to high-percentage looks beyond the arc.
- The last three meetings between these teams have averaged 163.3 points, reinforcing the likelihood of a high-scoring affair.
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Lean: Memphis -1.5 Spread
- Memphis has the superior shooting efficiency, which could help them in late-game situations.
- The Tigers have been stronger in clutch moments, with a +10.7 average margin of victory in their last ten games compared to UAB’s +3.6.
- UAB’s defensive weaknesses in perimeter coverage may be exploited by Memphis’s 39% three-point shooting.
Player Props & Alternative Lines
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PJ Haggerty Over 20.5 Points
- He’s averaging 21.3 PPG and thrives against teams with defensive inconsistencies.
- UAB struggles in containing dynamic scorers, and Haggerty’s ability to drive and shoot makes him a tough cover.
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Yaxel Lendeborg Over 10.5 Rebounds
- Lendeborg is a dominant rebounder, averaging 10.9 RPG.
- Memphis ranks 333rd in defensive rebounding rate, making second-chance opportunities likely for him.
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Memphis Team Total Over 81.5 Points
- Given UAB’s struggles in three-point defense and Memphis’s efficiency, this is a solid alternative play.
Potential Impact of Mismatches & Key Factors
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Memphis’s Perimeter Shooting vs. UAB’s Defense
- Memphis shoots 39% from three, while UAB allows opponents to hit 35%.
- If Memphis gets hot from deep, they can stretch the lead and control the pace.
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UAB’s Offensive Rebounding vs. Memphis’s Defensive Rebounding
- UAB ranks 4th in Division I in offensive rebounding, while Memphis is near the bottom in defensive rebounding.
- If UAB dominates the glass, second-chance points could keep them in the game even if their shooting is inconsistent.
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Pace of Play & Transition Opportunities
- Both teams like to push the tempo, which favors a high-scoring game.
- Memphis’s transition defense will be key in slowing UAB’s attack.
Final Thoughts
This is a true coin-flip game with significant AAC implications. Memphis holds slight edges in shooting efficiency and clutch performances, while UAB has the advantage in rebounding and home-court energy. Expect a high-scoring affair with both teams pushing the pace. Betting the Over 161.5 looks like the best value play, with Memphis -1.5 as a lean. Player props on Haggerty (points) and Lendeborg (rebounds) are also worth considering.
Projected Final Score: Memphis 82, UAB 80
