Phoenix, AZ – March 26, 2025 – The Boston Celtics, one of the NBA’s dominant forces this season, roll into the PHX Arena to face a Phoenix Suns squad fighting for its playoff life. With the Celtics (53-19) eyeing another deep postseason run and the Suns (35-37) scrambling to secure a play-in berth, this cross-conference duel carries major implications for both teams.
Boston arrives in the desert fresh off a statement win over the Sacramento Kings, reinforcing its status as a championship contender. Meanwhile, Phoenix stunned the Milwaukee Bucks in its last outing, proving it can still compete with the league’s elite—even without Bradley Beal, who remains sidelined.
The biggest question looming over this matchup: Will Jayson Tatum suit up? The Celtics’ MVP candidate is listed as questionable, and his presence—or absence—could dramatically shift the game’s dynamics. If he plays, Boston’s high-powered offense becomes even more lethal. If he sits, the door cracks open for Kevin Durant and Devin Booker to exploit a slightly weakened Celtics attack.
AI Model Predictions
| Model | Celtics Score | Suns Score | Predicted Spread | Predicted Total | Pick (ATS) | Pick (O/U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetQL | 114.8 | 110.2 | Celtics -4.6 | 225.0 | Celtics -4.5 | Over 221 |
| ESPN Analytics | 113.5 | 109.5 | Celtics -4.0 | 223.0 | Celtics -4.5 | Over 221 |
| SportsLine | 115.0 | 111.0 | Celtics -4.0 | 226.0 | Celtics -4.5 | Over 221 |
| FiveThirtyEight | 112.7 | 108.3 | Celtics -4.4 | 221.0 | Celtics -4.5 | Push 221 |
| TeamRankings | 114.0 | 110.0 | Celtics -4.0 | 224.0 | Celtics -4.5 | Over 221 |
Average Model Prediction:
- Celtics 113.8 – Suns 109.8
- Spread: Celtics -4.0 (close to the listed -4.5)
- Total: 223.8 (slightly over 221)
Consensus Picks:
- Spread: Celtics -4.5 (models slightly favor Boston covering)
- Total: Over 221 (4/5 models lean Over)
My Custom Prediction (Pythagorean Theorem + Strength of Schedule + Adjustments)
1. Pythagorean Win Expectation
- Celtics:
- Points Scored: 118.3 (1st in NBA)
- Points Allowed: 109.1 (3rd in NBA)
- Pythagorean Win %: ~75% (elite)
- Suns:
- Points Scored: 113.8 (12th in NBA)
- Points Allowed: 113.5 (20th in NBA)
- Pythagorean Win %: ~52% (average)
Takeaway: Celtics have a significant edge in efficiency.
2. Strength of Schedule (SOS) Adjustment
- Celtics: Played a top-5 toughest schedule (still dominating).
- Suns: Played a middle-tier schedule (struggled against good teams).
Adjustment: Celtics should perform +2 pts better than raw stats suggest.
3. Injuries & Trends
- Celtics:
- Jayson Tatum (Questionable) – If he sits, Boston loses ~6 PPG in scoring.
- Xavier Tillman (Out) – Minimal impact (bench big).
- Suns:
- Bradley Beal (Out) – Big loss (~18 PPG), hurts spacing.
- Recent Form:
- Celtics beat Kings (good offense).
- Suns beat Bucks (but Bucks were on a B2B).
Adjustment:
- If Tatum plays, Celtics win by ~6-8 pts.
- If Tatum sits, game tightens to ~3-5 pts.
4. Pace & Playstyle
- Celtics: 3rd in 3PM, elite defense.
- Suns: Rely on Durant/Booker isolations (slower pace).
Predicted Pace: Slightly slower than average (closer to 220 total).
Final Custom Prediction
- If Tatum plays: Celtics 115 – Suns 109 (Celtics -6, Total 224)
- If Tatum sits: Celtics 112 – Suns 109 (Celtics -3, Total 221)
Combined Prediction (Averaging Models + Custom)
| Scenario | Model Avg. | My Prediction | Final Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tatum Plays | Celtics -4.0 | Celtics -6.0 | Celtics -5.0 |
| Tatum Sits | Celtics -4.0 | Celtics -3.0 | Celtics -3.5 |
Current Line: Celtics -4.5
- If Tatum plays, lean Celtics -4.5 (value).
- If Tatum sits, lean Suns +4.5 (too many points).
Total: Models average 223.8, mine 221-224 → Over 221 is slightly favored.
Key Factors
- Tatum’s status is the biggest swing factor.
- Beal’s absence hurts the Suns’ offense.
- Celtics’ defense should limit Durant/Booker enough to cover if healthy.
Final Score Prediction:
- Celtics 114 – Suns 108 (Celtics cover -4.5)
Pick
- Take the Boston Celtics -4.5 points.
