Cardinals vs. Pirates: The Battle of the Pitching Titans and a Run Drought on the Horizon?

Tuesday, July 23, 2024 at 6:40 PM ET, PNC Park Pittsburgh, PA

The St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates are set to clash at PNC Park tonight, in a game that promises a pitching duel with the potential for a low-scoring affair. Let’s delve into the key factors that could shape this intriguing matchup.

Evaluating Top MLB Prediction Models & Famous Models

1. PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus): Hypothetical Total Runs: 7
2. ZiPS (Dan Szymborski): Hypothetical Total Runs: 7.5
3. FiveThirtyEight’s Model: Hypothetical Total Runs: 8
4. The Fangraphs Model: Hypothetical Total Runs: 7.8
5. Clay Davenport’s Model: Hypothetical Total Runs: 8
6. Caesars Sportsbook Model: Hypothetical Total Runs: 7.4
7. DraftKings Sportsbook Model: Hypothetical Total Runs: 8

The Cardinals: Seeking Redemption Amidst Injury Woes

The Cardinals, despite their slight lead in the NL Central, have been battling inconsistencies and key player injuries. Their recent performance, winning only four of their last 10 games, reflects these challenges. However, their batting average of .246 suggests they still possess offensive potential.

Lance Lynn takes the mound for the Cardinals tonight, boasting a 5-4 record and a 4.39 ERA. While his experience is an asset, his recent outings have been less than stellar. The absence of Steven Matz and Keynan Middleton, both sidelined due to injuries, will further test the Cardinals’ depth.

The Pirates: Riding the Wave of Momentum

The Pirates are currently on a hot streak, winning nine of their last 11 games. This surge in performance has catapulted them into contention for the second spot in the NL Central. Their batting average of .233 may seem modest, but their recent offensive output has been impressive, driven by clutch hitting from rookie Nick Gonzales.

The Pirates’ ace, Paul Skenes, is the key to their success. With a 6-0 record and a remarkable 1.90 ERA, Skenes has been virtually unhittable this season. His dominance on the mound gives the Pirates a significant advantage in this matchup.

The Prediction: Under 8.5 Total Runs

Analyzing various prediction models, including PECOTA, ZiPS, FiveThirtyEight, Fangraphs, Clay Davenport, and sportsbook models, the average hypothetical total runs for this game hovers around 7.74. This suggests a low-scoring affair, aligning with my prediction of a 4-2 Pirates win.

Several factors support the under 8.5 total runs prediction:

1. Pitching Duel: Both starting pitchers, especially Skenes, have demonstrated their ability to shut down opposing lineups.
2. Cardinals’ Injuries: The Cardinals’ offensive firepower is diminished due to key player injuries.
3. Recent Trends: The Pirates have been winning close, low-scoring games recently.
4. Pythagorean Theorem: The theorem suggests the Pirates are underperforming their expected win-loss record, implying they might be due for more wins, potentially in low-scoring games.

While the Cardinals have a slightly higher team batting average, their recent struggles and the absence of key players might hinder their run production. The Pirates, on the other hand, have the momentum and a dominant pitcher in Skenes, who could easily stifle the Cardinals’ bats.

Conclusion

The Cardinals vs. Pirates game promises to be a captivating matchup between two evenly matched teams. However, based on a comprehensive analysis of various factors, the prediction leans towards a low-scoring game, with the Pirates potentially edging out the Cardinals. The under 8.5 total runs bet appears to be the more favorable option, considering the pitching prowess of Skenes and the Cardinals’ offensive challenges.

Pick: Under 8