The Washington Nationals travel to St. Louis to face the Cardinals in a National League showdown. Both teams have faced injury challenges, but the Nationals have shown signs of improvement in recent weeks. Can Washington continue their momentum or will the Cardinals dominate at home?
The Cardinals are heavily favored at home, but both teams are dealing with significant pitching injuries. Here’s how they might affect the AI picks:
- BetQL: Cardinals (-150) – Adjusted slightly down to Cardinals -145 due to the Nationals’ recent wins and the Cardinals’ pitching injuries.
- ESPN: Cardinals (62% win probability) – Adjusted slightly down to Cardinals 60% due to the Cardinals’ pitching injuries.
- SportsLine: Cardinals (-1.5) – No adjustment needed.
- Dimers Bettorverse: Cardinals (-145) – No adjustment needed.
- NumberFire (high win %): Cardinals (60% win probability) – Adjusted slightly down to Cardinals 58% due to the Cardinals’ pitching injuries.
Average Adjusted Pick: Cardinals (-143) with a 59% win probability.
Pythagorean Theorem:
The Cardinals are slightly above their win total based on runs scored and allowed, while the Nationals are well below theirs. This suggests a potential win for the Cardinals, but the recent trends and injuries might complicate things.
Injury Report and Recent Trends:
- Nationals: They are missing key relievers, but Davidjohn Herz has shown promise. Their recent wins have boosted their confidence.
- Cardinals: Miles Mikolas is a solid starter, but they are also dealing with pitching injuries. Their recent struggles are concerning.
Matchup Analysis:
- Nationals: Davidjohn Herz needs to continue his strong pitching against a Cardinals offense that can score runs.
- Cardinals: Miles Mikolas needs to be on top of his game to contain the Nationals’ offense.
Considering All Factors:
- The Cardinals’ offense is potent, but their pitching depth is tested.
- The Nationals’ offense has shown improvement, and Davidjohn Herz has been solid.
Washington Nationals 4 – St. Louis Cardinals 5
Reasoning:
- The Cardinals’ offense might be too much for the Nationals’ pitching staff.
- The Nationals’ offense could put up a fight, but the Cardinals’ home-field advantage might be a factor.
- The total score (Over/Under 8.5) leans slightly towards Over due to both teams’ offensive capabilities.
Cardinals Win Close Game
The AI models favor the Cardinals (average: Cardinals -143, 59% win probability), and our analysis leans towards them as well. The Cardinals’ offense and home-field advantage give them the edge, but the Nationals could make it a close game. The total score is likely to be around the Over/Under line.
Pick: Over 8.5 total runs. ***LOSE***
