Wednesday, July 3 2024, on 6:45 PM ET, at Nationals Park Washington, DC
The Washington Nationals and New York Mets are set to clash in the nation’s capital for the third game of their four-game series. This matchup is intriguing not just because of the budding rivalry between these NL East foes, but also due to the recent trends and underlying statistical factors suggesting a potential offensive explosion.
Top MLB Prediction Models and Their Consensus:
- FiveThirtyEight’s Elo Model: Mets 5.2 – Nationals 4.1
- SportsLine’s Projection Model: Mets 5.5 – Nationals 4.3
- PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus): Mets 4.8 – Nationals 3.9
- The Clutchwrap Supreme: Mets 5.1 – Nationals 4.4
- Dimers.com: Mets 5.3 – Nationals 4.2
New York Mets: A Resurgent Force
The Mets are riding a wave of momentum, having won 20 of their last 28 games, the best record in baseball during that span. They’ve shown resilience, winning their last two games against the Nationals in extra innings. However, their offense has been inconsistent at times, with a team batting average of .251.
The Mets are recalling Christian Scott from Triple-A Syracuse for this start. Scott’s last MLB outing was a no-decision against the Diamondbacks on May 30, where he allowed two runs over five innings. His minor league stint has been solid, posting a 2.12 ERA in four starts.
Despite some key injuries, notably Starling Marte and Brandon Nimmo, the Mets have found contributions from unexpected sources like Jose Iglesias, who has been on a tear since his recall. The Mets’ lineup, even with absences, has the potential to put up runs against a Nationals pitching staff that has struggled at times.
Washington Nationals: Searching for Consistency
The Nationals are on a three-game losing streak and have dropped seven of their last eight, including three extra-inning losses. Their offense has sputtered, with a team batting average of .235. They’ve struggled to score runs consistently, averaging just 3.5 runs per game during this recent slump.
Mitchell Parker will take the mound for the Nationals. He’s coming off a loss against the Rays, where he allowed two runs over five innings. While his overall numbers are decent (5-4, 3.32 ERA), he’ll need to be sharp against a Mets lineup that can heat up quickly.
The Nationals’ pitching staff has been hampered by injuries to key starters like Josiah Gray and Cade Cavalli. Their bullpen has also shown vulnerability, particularly in extra-inning situations.
The Case for the Over:
Several factors point towards a high-scoring affair:
- Pitching Matchup: Neither starter has been dominant recently, and both have ERAs that suggest a decent amount of runs could be scored.
- Offensive Potential: Both teams have shown flashes of offensive firepower, even with injuries impacting their lineups.
- Recent Trends: The first two games of this series have seen a combined 28 runs, indicating a trend towards higher-scoring contests.
- Statistical Projections: Multiple prediction models, including FiveThirtyEight and SportsLine, project a total of over 9 runs in this game.
- Pythagorean Expectation: The Mets’ Pythagorean win-loss record suggests they’re due for more offensive output.
Conclusion:
While the Mets are the slight favorites in this matchup, the Nationals are playing at home and have the potential to make it a close contest. Given the statistical indicators, recent trends, and the pitching matchup, it’s reasonable to expect a game with plenty of offensive fireworks. The over 8.5 runs bet seems like a solid wager for this NL East showdown.
Pick: Over 8.5
