Don’t miss your chance to win $1000 in the ATS Wins countdown to kickoff giveaway
Date: Saturday, July 26, 2024
Time: 10:35 p.m. ET
Arena: Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA
The Colorado Rockies look to reignite their offensive spark as they face off against the San Francisco Giants. While the Giants have been a formidable force, the Rockies have shown glimpses of their potential. With key matchups on the mound and in the batter’s box, fans can anticipate a thrilling contest. Will the Rockies find a way to capitalize on their opportunities, or will the Giants continue their dominance?
Colorado Rockies: The Underdogs
The Rockies have had a tough season, but don’t let their struggles fool you—they’ve shown flashes of brilliance, especially recently. The team comes into this game with a bit of momentum, having won five of their last eight games, including series victories over the Giants and the Red Sox. This team has resilience, and when they click, they can be quite dangerous.
Starting Pitcher: Austin Gomber
- ERA: 5.85
- WHIP: 1.55
- K/9: 6.7
Gomber has had a rough season, sporting a high ERA and WHIP. However, he has shown the ability to pitch deep into games and keep his team in contention. His biggest challenge will be maintaining control and limiting the Giants’ potent lineup. Historically, Gomber has struggled against the Giants, but every game is a new opportunity.
Team Batting Average: .243
The Rockies’ offense has been inconsistent, but they have some power hitters who can change the game’s dynamics with one swing. Players like Ryan McMahon and C.J. Cron are crucial to their success. When these guys get on base, the Rockies’ chances improve significantly.
San Francisco Giants: The Favorites
The Giants have had a solid season and are looking to maintain their momentum. They recently dominated the Rockies with an 11-4 victory, showcasing their offensive prowess. The Giants are strong at home and have a balanced lineup that can produce runs in various ways.
Starting Pitcher: Logan Webb
- ERA: 3.45
- WHIP: 1.15
- K/9: 9.2
Webb has been a reliable ace for the Giants, consistently delivering quality starts. His ERA and WHIP are impressive, and he has a knack for striking out batters at crucial moments. Webb’s ability to command the strike zone and his experience make him a tough opponent for any lineup.
Team Batting Average: .252
The Giants’ offense is robust, featuring players like Brandon Crawford and Mike Yastrzemski, who can drive in runs and get on base frequently. The team has a good mix of power and contact hitters, making them a well-rounded offensive unit.
Averaging the Models’ Picks
- PECOTA: 8.9
- ZiPS: 9.5
- Steamer: 8.1
- Davenport: 8.3
- THE BAT: 9.5
Why Over 7.5 Total Runs is a Good Pick
Now, let’s talk about why we’re picking over 7.5 total runs for this game.
- Starting Pitchers’ Stats: While Webb has been excellent, Gomber’s struggles and high ERA suggest that the Giants could score several runs early. Gomber’s WHIP indicates that he allows a lot of base runners, which can lead to runs scored.
- Recent Performances: Both teams have shown they can score runs in bunches. The Giants’ recent 11-4 win over the Rockies is a testament to their offensive capabilities. The Rockies, despite their struggles, have managed to win five of their last eight games, indicating they can put up runs when needed.
- Team Batting Averages: The Rockies (.243) and Giants (.252) both have respectable team batting averages. These numbers suggest that both teams can consistently get on base, increasing the likelihood of runs being scored.
- Trends and Conditions: The Rockies have struggled on the road, but they’ve been playing better lately. The Giants are strong at home, and with clear skies and mild temperatures expected, it’s a great night for baseball. Slight wind blowing towards the outfield could also favor the hitters.
- Pythagorean Theorem and Strength of Schedule: The Rockies’ Pythagorean win-loss record suggests they should have a slightly better record, but their weak road performance offsets this. The Giants’ Pythagorean record aligns closely with their actual performance, indicating consistent play. These factors support the likelihood of a high-scoring game.
Encouraging Our Pick
Taking all these factors into account, over 7.5 total runs seems like a sensible prediction. The combination of Gomber’s struggles, Webb’s consistency, the offensive capabilities of both teams and the favorable conditions at Oracle Park all point towards a higher-scoring game. Plus, both teams are capable of putting together big innings, as we’ve seen in their recent games.
Tonight’s matchup between the Rockies and the Giants is set to be an exciting one. With both teams having the potential to score runs and the conditions favoring the hitters, we’re confident that over 7.5 total runs is a solid pick. \
Enjoy the game, and let’s hope for some fireworks on the field!
Pick: Over 7.5 Total Runs
