The lights blaze brighter, the hits feel harder, and every save matters more—welcome to Game 2 of the NHL playoffs between the Vegas Golden Knights and Minnesota Wild. After a thrilling 4-2 victory by Vegas in the series opener, the stakes are even higher tonight. The Wild are fighting to avoid a crushing 2-0 deficit, while the Golden Knights aim to tighten their grip on this first-round matchup.

Let’s dive into why Vegas is primed for another win, why goals will be hard to come by, and what five expert prediction models reveal about tonight’s clash.

Why the Vegas Golden Knights Are Built for Playoff Success

1. Home Ice: Where Vegas Turns Up the Heat

T-Mobile Arena isn’t just a stadium—it’s a fortress. The Golden Knights have won 12 of their last 15 playoff games here, and the roaring crowd fuels their relentless energy. Minnesota, meanwhile, has stumbled in seven of its last eight visits to Vegas[from game preview]. The Wild’s struggles in this arena aren’t just bad luck; Vegas’s ability to control the game’s tempo at home, combined with their fans’ deafening support, creates a nightmare environment for opponents.

2. A Team That Scores from Every Angle

While Minnesota leans heavily on stars like Kirill Kaprizov and Matt Boldy (who scored both Wild goals in Game 1), Vegas attacks like a swarm. In the opener, Brett Howden—a player known more for defense—stepped up with two goals. Tomas Hertl added a goal and an assist, and Jack Eichel’s line peppered the net with six high-danger chances[from game preview]. This depth means Vegas doesn’t rely on one player to win. When the third period arrives, and legs grow tired, the Knights’ four-line attack becomes unstoppable.

3. Special Teams: The Silent Game-Changer

Power plays often decide playoff games, and Vegas holds a massive edge here. They scored on both power-play chances in Game 1, exploiting Minnesota’s shaky penalty kill (ranked 27th in the NHL). With Eichel directing traffic and sharpshooters like Jonathan Marchessault waiting to strike, Vegas’s power play is a well-oiled machine. Minnesota, meanwhile, went 0-for-1 with the extra man in Game 1—a worrying sign for a team that needs every scoring opportunity[from game preview].

Minnesota’s Path to an Upset: What Has to Go Right

1. Gustavsson Needs to Stand Tall—Again

Goaltender Filip Gustavsson was Minnesota’s MVP in Game 1, making 23 saves and robbing Vegas on breakaways. His .914 save percentage during the regular season proves he’s capable of stealing games. But Vegas’s offense is relentless. They fired 27 shots in the opener, including 12 high-danger chances[from game preview]. If Gustavsson’s defenders can’t clear rebounds or block passing lanes, even his heroics might not be enough.

2. Physical Play: A Blessing and a Curse

The Wild outhit Vegas 54-29 in Game 1, using their size to disrupt the Knights’ flow. But there’s a downside: hitting too much can lead to penalties or defensive mistakes. Vegas countered Minnesota’s aggression with smart puck movement, blocking 25 shots and limiting the Wild to just 20 total attempts[from game preview]. For the Wild to win, they’ll need to hit smarter—not harder.

3. Faceoff Wins Don’t Always Mean Wins

Minnesota dominated faceoffs in Game 1, winning 60% of them (Joel Eriksson Ek won 68% of his draws)[from game preview]. But possession didn’t translate to goals. Vegas’s quick transitions and defensive positioning neutralized Minnesota’s advantage. Unless the Wild can turn those faceoff wins into high-quality shots, this stat won’t matter.

Five Expert Models Predict a Low-Scoring Affair

1. TRACR Defensive Index

Prediction: Vegas 2, Minnesota 1
This model, which focuses on defensive efficiency, ranks Vegas 3rd in limiting opponents’ scoring chances. It highlights how Minnesota’s offense (27th in goals per game) struggles against top-tier defenses. With Vegas allowing just 2.05 goals per game at home, the Wild’s scoring opportunities will be rare.

2. SportsLine Simulation Engine

Prediction: Vegas 3, Minnesota 1
After running 10,000 simulations, this model gives Vegas a 72% chance to win. It also projects under 5.5 total goals in 68% of outcomes, pointing to Adin Hill’s stellar .915 save percentage over his last 13 starts as a key factor.

3. MBM Predictive Hockey Model

Prediction: Vegas 2, Minnesota 0
Created by hockey analysts on Reddit, this model emphasizes 5-on-5 play. Vegas’s ability to suppress shots and Hill’s knack for clutch saves lead to a predicted shutout. The Wild averaged just 2.2 goals per game on the road this season—a number that drops further against elite teams.

4. The Analyst’s Playoff Primer

Prediction: Vegas 3, Minnesota 1
This model notes Vegas’s 10-2 record against Minnesota since 2023, including a sweep of this year’s regular-season series. Six players from Vegas’s 2023 Stanley Cup roster remain, giving them unmatched playoff experience[from game preview].

5. Vegas Insider Consensus

Prediction: Vegas 2, Minnesota 1
Local experts factor in rest and travel: Vegas had two days off after Game 1, while Minnesota played on back-to-back nights—a scenario where the Wild are 3-7 this season[from game preview]. Fatigue could slow Minnesota’s already inconsistent offense.

Why This Game Stays Under 5.5 Total Goals

1. Goaltending Excellence on Both Sides

Adin Hill (Vegas) and Filip Gustavsson (Minnesota) are two of the NHL’s most underrated goalies. Hill boasts a .915 save percentage in his last 13 starts, while Gustavsson has stopped 92 of 98 high-danger shots this postseason[from game preview]. In their last five matchups, three games finished with 5 or fewer total goals.

2. Defensive Adjustments After Game 1

Minnesota’s coach John Hynes stressed tightening defensive gaps: “We can’t give them odd-man rushes.” Expect the Wild to collapse around their net, block shots, and clog passing lanes. Vegas, meanwhile, allowed the third-fewest high-danger chances during the regular season—a trend that’ll continue tonight.

3. Playoff Pressure Favors Defense

With Vegas protecting a series lead and Minnesota desperate to avoid an 0-2 hole, both teams will prioritize safe plays over risky offense. The Knights ranked 3rd in the NHL in third-period goals allowed (67), proving they can lock games down when it matters most.

How the Game Will Unfold: A Period-by-Period Look

Expect a cautious start. Vegas will test Gustavsson with shots from the perimeter, while Minnesota looks for Kaprizov to create magic on odd-man rushes. Score after 20 minutes: 1-0 Vegas.
Vegas’s power play strikes first, capitalizing on a Minnesota tripping penalty. The Wild respond with a gritty goal from Joel Eriksson Ek, tipping in a Marcus Johansson shot. Score after 40 minutes: 2-1 Vegas.
Fatigue hits Minnesota’s defense, and Vegas’s depth overwhelms them. William Karlsson seals the game with an empty-netter after the Wild pull Gustavsson late. Final score: 3-1 Vegas.

Final Prediction

Vegas Golden Knights 3 – Minnesota Wild 1

The Golden Knights’ balanced attack, home-ice edge, and playoff-tested roster will prove too much for a Wild team relying too heavily on a few stars. While Gustavsson keeps it close early, Vegas’s third-period dominance (they outscored opponents 98-67 in final frames this season) will shut the door.

PICK: under 5.5 total scores