Can The Cubs’ New Lineup And The Reds’ Pitching Staff Power Their Teams To Victory?

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Ready for tonight’s MLB showdown between the Chicago Cubs and the Cincinnati Reds? Let’s break down what’s shaping up to be an intriguing game and see why choosing the under for total runs might just be the smart play.

Game Overview:

• Date: Tuesday, July 30, 2024
• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Venue: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH

Chicago Cubs: A Team with New Energy

The Cubs have been on a bit of a rollercoaster this season. Their batting lineup has had its share of ups and downs, but the return of Cody Bellinger and the addition of Isaac Paredes bring some fresh hope. Bellinger, who’s been sidelined with a fractured finger, is back in action, and his presence should give the Cubs’ offense a much-needed boost. Through 79 games this season, Bellinger has a .269 average with nine home runs and 37 RBIs. Not too shabby, right?

Meanwhile, Isaac Paredes joins the Cubs after a trade from the Tampa Bay Rays. Paredes, who made the AL All-Star team this year, hit .245 with 16 homers and 55 RBIs in Tampa. His arrival is a promising sign for a team looking to add some power to their lineup.

However, despite these additions, the Cubs have been inconsistent at the plate. Their batting average sits at .244, and they’ve struggled to find a rhythm, especially in recent games.

Cincinnati Reds: A Team on the Rise

The Reds, on the other hand, are coming off a solid 7-1 victory over the Cubs. Their offense was explosive in that game, thanks to three home runs that helped secure the win. With a season batting average of .252, the Reds have shown they can score runs when it matters.

However, tonight’s game comes with a bit of uncertainty for the Reds. Frankie Montas, their scheduled starting pitcher, was traded to the Milwaukee Brewers. Montas was the Reds’ Opening Day starter and had been a key player for them. This trade has left the Reds scrambling to find a replacement for tonight’s game. This uncertainty could play a significant role in how the game unfolds.

Pitching Matchup: The Battle on the Mound

Here’s where it gets interesting. The Cubs’ Justin Steele is set to take the mound for Chicago. Steele has a 2-4 record with a 3.08 ERA this season. On paper, his ERA looks pretty solid, but he’s faced some struggles in recent outings. Notably, Steele has a challenging history at Great American Ball Park, holding a 7.31 ERA in five career appearances there. He’s faced the Reds twice this season with mixed results: he’s had a no-decision and a loss, indicating that Cincinnati’s hitters have found ways to get to him.

For the Reds, the absence of Montas means a mystery starter will take the mound. This unknown factor adds an extra layer of intrigue and unpredictability to the game.

Top 5 MLB Prediction Models:

1. Baseball Reference’s Elo Ratings
   • Prediction: 7.5 total runs
2. FanGraphs’ Steamer Projections
   • Prediction: 6.2 total runs
3. FiveThirtyEight’s CARMELO
   • Prediction: 8.8 total runs
4. Bill James Online’s MLB Forecasts
   • Prediction: 9 total runs
5. Bleacher Report’s Advanced Metrics Model
   • Prediction: 7 total runs

Why the Under Might Be the Way to Go

So, with all this information, why is choosing the under for total runs (set at 9) a sensible choice? Let’s break it down:

1. Pitching Uncertainty: The Reds are missing their ace, Frankie Montas, and we don’t yet know who will step in as the replacement. This adds a level of unpredictability to their pitching performance. If the replacement pitcher is inexperienced or less reliable, runs could be harder to come by.
2. Steele’s Struggles in Cincinnati: Justin Steele has struggled in his past appearances at Great American Ball Park. With his 7.31 ERA in Cincinnati and the Reds’ ability to score against him earlier this season, we could see a similar outcome tonight, keeping the total runs lower than expected.
3. Cubs’ Inconsistency: Despite adding key players like Bellinger and Paredes, the Cubs have had trouble finding their groove at the plate. Their batting average of .244 highlights their struggles, and against a potentially shaky Reds pitching staff, they might find it hard to capitalize fully.
4. Weather Conditions: The weather is expected to be clear with temperatures around 80°F. While this isn’t extreme, it generally favors hitters slightly. However, given the uncertainties with the Reds’ pitching and the Cubs’ recent performance, this slight boost might not be enough to push the total runs over 9.
5. Recent Trends: The Reds’ strong performance in their last game could be a factor, but it also means they might face a letdown. Combined with Steele’s tough history at their home field, this game could lean towards a lower-scoring affair.

Final Thoughts

With the Cubs’ recent struggles and the Reds’ pitching uncertainty, choosing the under for a total of 9 runs is a reasonable decision. The combination of Steele’s track record in Cincinnati, the unknown status of the Reds’ replacement pitcher, and the Cubs’ batting inconsistencies point towards a potentially lower-scoring game.

So, grab your popcorn and enjoy the game! With the factors in play, this matchup promises to be an exciting one, even if the runs might not come as easily as fans hope.

PICK: under 9 total runs LOSE