Get ready for some baseball! Today, the Tampa Bay Rays are heading to the Bronx to face off against the New York Yankees. It’s always exciting when these two American League East rivals clash. We’ve got a good look at who’s pitching and some of the players who might not be on the field due to injuries. Let’s dive into what we can expect from this afternoon’s matchup.
Rays vs. Yankees: A Look at the Mound Matchup
On the hill for the Tampa Bay Rays, we’ll see right-hander Ryan Pepiot. His season record stands at six wins and eight losses. In his time on the mound, which totals just over 126 innings, Pepiot has a solid earned run average (ERA) of 3.42. This means, on average, he allows around 3 and a half earned runs every nine innings he pitches. He also has a good strikeout-to-walk ratio of 2.95, indicating he gets nearly three strikeouts for every walk he issues. His WHIP, which stands for walks plus hits per inning pitched, is 1.15. This number tells us that for every inning he pitches, there’s a little over one baserunner getting on. Overall, Pepiot has been a dependable pitcher for the Rays this season.
The New York Yankees will counter with right-hander Marcus Stroman. His record is two wins and two losses. However, in his 34 innings pitched this season, his ERA sits higher at 6.09. This suggests he has had a tougher time preventing runs compared to Pepiot. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is 1.44, and his WHIP is 1.59, both indicating he has allowed more baserunners and fewer strikeouts relative to his innings pitched.
Key Players on the Sidelines
Injuries are a part of baseball, and both teams have some important players currently out of action.
For the Tampa Bay Rays, the injury list includes:
- Jonathan Hernandez (Undisclosed): Expected to miss time until at least August 4th.
- Alex Faedo (Shoulder): Expected to be out until at least August 1st.
- Stuart Fairchild (Oblique): Expected to be sidelined until at least August 1st.
- Shane McClanahan (Triceps): Not expected back until at least August 15th.
- Andrew Wantz (Elbow): Likely out until around September 1st.
- Manuel Rodriguez (Forearm): Out for the remainder of the season.
- Ha-seong Kim (Back): Expected to return around August 1st.
- Richard Palacios (Knee): Aiming for a return around August 1st.
- Nathan Lavender (Elbow): Could be back around August 3rd.
- Hunter Bigge (Lat): Expected to miss time until at least August 15th.
- Alfredo Zarraga (Undisclosed): Out for the season.
The New York Yankees are also dealing with their share of injuries:
- Gerrit Cole (Elbow): Out for the entire season, a significant loss for their pitching staff.
- Aaron Judge (Elbow): Expected to be back around August 5th, a key bat missing from their lineup.
- Ryan Yarbrough (Oblique): Hoping to return around August 4th.
- Fernando Cruz (Oblique): Expected to be out until at least August 15th.
- Mark Leiter (Leg): Targeting a return around August 8th.
- Oswaldo Cabrera (Ankle): Likely sidelined until around September 15th.
- Luis Gil (Lat): Could return around August 3rd.
- Clarke Schmidt (Elbow): Out for the season.
- Jake Cousins (Elbow): Out for the season.
- Edgar Barclay (Undisclosed): Out for the season.
- Luis Durango (Undisclosed): Expected back around August 2nd.
- Luis Velasquez (Undisclosed): Out for the season.
- Kevin Stevens (Undisclosed): Out for the season.
These injuries can impact team performance, especially when key players are missing from the lineup or the pitching rotation.
Offensive Power and Bullpen Fatigue
The Yankees have been a powerhouse on offense this season, ranking third in runs scored per game at 5.2. Even with key players like Aaron Judge on the injured list, they have found ways to score. Their recent series win against the Rays, including last night’s dramatic victory, shows they can come up big in crucial moments.
The Rays, on the other hand, have a respectable offense, averaging 4.6 runs per game, good for 10th in the MLB. They have a lineup capable of scoring runs and can create opportunities with their speed and ability to get on base.
Adding to the complexity is the state of the bullpens. Both teams have used their relief pitchers extensively in this series, especially after last night’s 11-inning marathon. This fatigue could be a significant factor, as less-rested relievers may be more prone to giving up runs in the late innings.
Why I’m Confident in the Over 8.5 Total Runs Prediction
Looking at the probable pitchers and some key statistics, there are reasons to believe that the game might see more than 8.5 total runs scored. While Ryan Pepiot of the Rays has put up good numbers this season, Marcus Stroman of the Yankees has struggled with an ERA over 6. This suggests that the Rays’ offense could have opportunities to score runs early in the game.
Furthermore, despite the Yankees’ overall strong offensive reputation, they have been inconsistent recently, especially with Aaron Judge on the injured list. However, Stroman’s higher ERA and WHIP indicate that he has been more prone to allowing hits and walks, potentially leading to runs for the Rays.
Even if Pepiot has a strong outing, the possibility of both teams’ bullpens being somewhat taxed after a long game the previous night could lead to more runs being scored later in the contest. Tired relief pitchers can sometimes struggle to keep runners off base.
To further support the expectation of more than 8.5 runs, let’s take a look at what some baseball prediction models are suggesting for the final scores:
- FanGraphs: Rays 5 – Yankees 4
- Baseball Prospectus PECOTA: Rays 6 – Yankees 4
- FiveThirtyEight’s MLB model: Rays 5 – Yankees 5
- The Action Network: Rays 5 – Yankees 4
- Massey Ratings: Rays 5 – Yankees 3
Across these five different prediction models, the projected total runs consistently exceed 8.5 in two models, and come very close in the others. This consensus from various analytical approaches adds confidence to the idea that the game could be relatively high-scoring.
Looking Ahead to the Game
This afternoon’s game between the Rays and the Yankees has all the ingredients for an exciting matchup. While the pitching matchup on paper favors the Rays with Pepiot on the mound, Stroman’s struggles for the Yankees could open the door for more offensive production. The injury situation for both teams will also play a role in how the game unfolds. Keep an eye on how the starting pitchers perform early on and whether the bullpens can hold the offenses in check as the game progresses. It will be interesting to see if the offensive predictions hold true and if we see a game with plenty of runs on the board.
My pick: over 8.5 total runs WIN
