As the Boston Bruins prepare to face the Anaheim Ducks at the Honda Center on March 26, 2025, both teams find themselves in precarious positions within their respective conferences. The Bruins hold a record of 30-33-9, accumulating 69 points, while the Ducks are close behind with a 30-32-8 record and 68 points. This matchup is critical for both teams as they strive to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Home/Away Performance
The Bruins have struggled on the road this season, with a record of 12-18-4, reflecting a goal differential of -25. Conversely, the Ducks have a home record of 14-15-4, with a goal differential of -15 at the Honda Center. These statistics suggest that while both teams have faced challenges, the Ducks have a slight edge when playing at home.
Special Teams
Special teams play a pivotal role in determining the outcome of games. The Bruins have a power play percentage of 13.2% and a penalty kill percentage of 77.6%. The Ducks, on the other hand, have a power play percentage of 15.1% and a penalty kill percentage of 72.6%. Both teams have underwhelming power play units, but the Bruins’ penalty kill is marginally more effective than that of the Ducks.
Coaching Strategies
The Bruins underwent a significant coaching change earlier this season, firing head coach Jim Montgomery in November due to a disappointing start. Assistant coach Joe Sacco was promoted to interim head coach. This transition has led to adjustments in the Bruins’ system and line combinations. The Ducks, under the guidance of their current coaching staff, have focused on developing young talent and implementing a balanced approach to both offense and defense.
Head-to-Head History
In their most recent meeting on February 23, 2025, the Ducks secured a 3-2 overtime victory against the Bruins, with Leo Carlsson netting the game-winning goal. This outcome indicates a competitive matchup, with the Ducks demonstrating resilience in close games.
Advanced Metrics
Analyzing advanced metrics provides deeper insight into team performance. The Bruins have a Corsi For percentage (CF%) of 48.5%, indicating they control the puck less than half the time during 5-on-5 play. The Ducks have a CF% of 47.8%, suggesting similar puck possession challenges. In terms of PDO, which combines shooting percentage and save percentage to measure luck or efficiency, the Bruins stand at 98.7, while the Ducks are at 99.2. Both figures are close to the baseline of 100, indicating average overall performance.
Puck Possession
Face-off win percentages can influence puck possession and scoring opportunities. The Bruins have a face-off win percentage of 50.3%, while the Ducks are slightly lower at 49.1%. This suggests the Bruins have a minor advantage in controlling the puck from face-offs.
Rest and Schedule
Both teams are coming into this game with one day of rest, having played their previous games on March 24. The Bruins faced the Los Angeles Kings, while the Ducks played against the San Jose Sharks. The travel involved for the Bruins may contribute to fatigue, potentially impacting their performance.
Strength of Schedule
In the past ten games, the Bruins have faced several top-tier teams, including the Vegas Golden Knights and the Toronto Maple Leafs, resulting in a 3-7-0 record. The Ducks have had a slightly more favorable schedule but have also struggled, posting a 4-6-0 record in their last ten games.
Public Betting Trends and Line Movement
As of March 26, 2025, the betting odds have the Ducks as slight favorites with a moneyline of -123, while the Bruins are at +103. The puck line is set at 1.5, and the total points for the game are set at 5.5. Public betting trends indicate a nearly even split, with a slight lean towards the Ducks, reflecting their home-ice advantage.
Situational Factors
Both teams are on the cusp of playoff contention, adding significant motivation to secure a win. The Bruins are adjusting to recent roster changes, including the trade of long-time forward Brad Marchand to the Florida Panthers earlier this month. The Ducks aim to capitalize on their home advantage to gain crucial points.
Comparison with NHL Prediction Models
Various NHL prediction models offer insights into the probable outcomes of this matchup. MoneyPuck’s model gives the Ducks a 52% chance of winning, reflecting the close nature of this contest. The Athletic’s model projects a 3.1 to 2.9 victory in favor of the Ducks. Sportlogiq’s analysis emphasizes the Ducks’ slight edge in offensive zone possession time. Natural Stat Trick’s metrics highlight the Bruins’ marginal advantage in defensive zone exits. Evolving Hockey’s model predicts a 51% win probability for the Ducks.
Predicted Final Score
Considering the analysis above, the projected final score is a 3-2 victory for the Anaheim Ducks.
Confidence Level
The confidence level in this prediction is medium, given the closely matched statistics and recent performances of both teams.
Recommended Bet Type
The recommended bet is on the total points going under 5.5. Both teams have struggled offensively and possess underperforming power play units, suggesting a lower-scoring game.
Key Matchups to Watch
1. Goaltending Battle: Jeremy Swayman vs. John Gibson
This matchup is likely to be a deciding factor in the game. Swayman has been the more consistent netminder for Boston this season, despite the team’s defensive issues. His .906 save percentage is better than John Gibson’s .895, and if he can withstand the Ducks’ offensive push, he could keep Boston in the game. On the other hand, Gibson will look to improve upon his recent performances, as he has been inconsistent at times.
2. Bruins’ Defensive Struggles vs. Ducks’ Offensive Efficiency
Boston has allowed 2,054 shots against this season, ranking them in the bottom half of the league. Their penalty kill has been slightly better than Anaheim’s, but they still give up too many high-danger chances. The Ducks have the ability to capitalize on this, particularly with players like Frank Vatrano and Troy Terry leading their offensive attack.
3. Face-offs and Puck Possession
With Boston holding a slight edge in face-off win percentage (50.3% vs. 49.1%), they may have a small advantage in controlling the tempo of the game. However, if Anaheim can improve in this area, they could generate additional scoring chances, particularly on offensive zone face-offs.
Final Thoughts
With both teams sitting on the edge of playoff contention, this game will likely be a tightly contested battle. The Ducks have a slight advantage playing at home, and their recent overtime win against the Bruins suggests they have confidence against this opponent. The projected low-scoring nature of this game favors betting on the Under 5.5 total goals and looking for value in goaltender prop bets or individual player goal-scoring props.
With the Ducks having a slight edge in offensive efficiency and the Bruins struggling on the road, Anaheim has a narrow advantage in this matchup. Expect a 3-2 victory for the Ducks, with a medium confidence level in this prediction.
Best Bets Recap
✔ Under 5.5 total goals – Both teams have struggled offensively, and their special teams do not provide much scoring upside.
✔ Leo Carlsson to score a goal – He has a favorable matchup and already had an OT winner against Boston this season.
✔ Jeremy Swayman Over 28.5 saves – Anaheim tends to generate a lot of shots, and Swayman will need to be sharp.
This game will be a crucial test for both teams as they fight to stay in the playoff hunt, but the Ducks have the slight edge with home ice on their side.
