7:40 p.m. ET, May 30, 2024, at American Family Field Milwaukee, WI
The Milwaukee Brewers (32-23) look to extend their lead in the National League Central when they take on the visiting Chicago Cubs (27-27) for the finale of their four-game series on Thursday afternoon. The Brewers currently hold a 4.5-game lead over the Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals, making this a crucial matchup for both teams.
Prediction Models
Here are 5 top-performing MLB prediction models along with some famous ones:
- FanGraphs ZiPS (Hypothetical Run Prediction): Brewers 5.2 Runs, Cubs 4.8 Runs
- Baseball Prospectus PECOTA (Hypothetical Run Prediction): Brewers 5.1 Runs, Cubs 4.3 Runs
- Run Differential Models (Pythagorean Expectation): Brewers slight favorite based on historical runs scored/allowed.
Starting Pitching Matchup
- Milwaukee Brewers: Colin Rea (RHP, 4-2, 3.98 ERA)
- Chicago Cubs: Jameson Taillon (RHP, 3-2, 2.58 ERA)
On paper, Taillon appears to have the upper hand. He boasts a lower ERA (2.58) compared to Rea’s 3.98. However, Rea has been surprisingly consistent for the Brewers’ injury-plagued rotation. In his most recent outing, he combined with opener Jared Koenig for a no-hitter into the seventh inning against the Boston Red Sox. While his career record against the Cubs is just 0-0, he’ll be looking to build on his recent success.
Offensive Firepower
The Brewers hold a slight edge in terms of team batting average (.254) compared to the Cubs (.242). Additionally, Milwaukee is averaging 4.56 runs per game (RS/G) compared to Chicago’s 4.21 RS/G. Key players like Christian Yelich, Blake Perkins, and Willy Adames have been on fire lately, with each launching two-run homers in the Brewers’ 10-6 victory on Wednesday.
However, the Cubs shouldn’t be overlooked. Ian Happ is scorching hot, batting .333 with four doubles, three homers, and seven RBIs in his last eight games. Cody Bellinger has also been consistent, recording three straight multi-hit games.
Injuries and Trends
The Brewers will be without closer Trevor Megill (day-to-day with a forearm bruise) but have otherwise been relatively healthy. The Cubs, on the other hand, are dealing with a longer injury list. This, coupled with their recent struggles (losing 6 of their last 7 games), might give the Brewers a slight advantage.
Pythagorean Projection and Betting Lines
The Pythagorean theorem, which uses a team’s runs scored and allowed to predict future win-loss records, might favor the Brewers slightly. Additionally, Vegas Insider shows the Brewers as slight favorites with betting odds of -130, while the Cubs are underdogs at +110.
Why the Over 8.5 Runs Might Be a Good Bet
While both starting pitchers have shown flashes of brilliance, there are reasons to believe this game could be a high-scoring affair. Here’s why:
- Hot Hitters: Both teams have players swinging the bat well, which could lead to more runs being produced.
- Park Factors: American Family Field is known to be a hitter-friendly ballpark, with short porches that can lead to more home runs.
- Bullpen Concerns: With Megill out for the Brewers, their bullpen depth might be tested if the game remains close late. The Cubs’ bullpen hasn’t been lights out either, ranking middle-of-the-pack in MLB.
Conclusion
This matchup promises to be an exciting one, with playoff implications for both teams. While the Brewers appear to be the favorites on paper, the Cubs have the potential to pull off an upset. Considering the offensive firepower on both sides, the pitching inconsistencies, and the hitter-friendly ballpark, betting on the total to go over 8.5 runs might be a more enticing option than picking a straight winner.
Pick: Over 8.5 WINNER
