The Columbus Blue Jackets are set to face the Philadelphia Flyers at the Wells Fargo Center on December 21, 2024. Both teams are striving to improve their standings in the Metropolitan Division as they approach the holiday break.
Team Records and Standings
As of this matchup, the Blue Jackets have a record of 13-15-5 (31 points), placing them 7th in the Metropolitan Division and 12th in the Eastern Conference. The Flyers hold a 14-15-4 record (32 points), positioning them 5th in the Metropolitan Division and 10th in the Eastern Conference.
Home and Away Performance
The Blue Jackets have demonstrated a stronger performance at home with a 9-4-3 record, compared to their struggles on the road, where they stand at 4-11-2. In contrast, the Flyers have a home record of 7-8-1, indicating a slight disadvantage when playing at the Wells Fargo Center.
Special Teams
Columbus’s power play operates at 18.9% (21st in the league), with 17 goals scored on 90 opportunities. Their penalty kill is less effective at 72.7% (28th), having allowed 27 goals on 98 penalty kills. Philadelphia’s power play is at 16.1% (26th), with 15 goals on 93 attempts, while their penalty kill is more robust at 80% (14th), successfully stopping 19 out of 24 opponent power plays.
Coaching Strategies
Under head coach Dean Evason, the Blue Jackets have emphasized an aggressive offensive approach, averaging 3.24 goals per game (10th in the NHL). However, this has sometimes led to defensive lapses, as they allow 3.58 goals against per game (30th). The Flyers, led by coach John Tortorella, focus on a more balanced game but have faced challenges in both scoring and defense, averaging 2.94 goals per game (20th) and allowing 3.55 goals against per game (29th).
Head-to-Head History
Historically, the Blue Jackets have a slight edge over the Flyers, with an overall record of 27-22-3 in their 52 encounters. In their most recent meeting on December 11, 2024, the Flyers secured a 5-3 victory, ending a three-game losing streak.
Advanced Metrics
Advanced statistics reveal that both teams struggle with puck possession. The Blue Jackets have a Corsi For Percentage (CF%) of 47.2%, indicating they often play without the puck. The Flyers have a slightly better CF% at 48.5% but still fall below the league average. Both teams have a PDO (sum of shooting percentage and save percentage) around 0.970, suggesting a combination of subpar shooting and goaltending performances.
Puck Possession
Face-off win percentages are crucial for puck possession. The Blue Jackets have a face-off win rate of 49.1%, while the Flyers are slightly better at 50.3%. These marginal differences can influence possession and, consequently, scoring opportunities.
Rest and Schedule
Both teams are playing their third game in five days, which could lead to fatigue. The Flyers’ recent home loss to the Los Angeles Kings (7-3) might impact their morale, while the Blue Jackets are coming off a 4-2 home win against the New Jersey Devils, potentially boosting their confidence.
Strength of Schedule
In their last five games, the Blue Jackets have faced opponents with a combined winning percentage of .540, indicating a relatively challenging schedule. The Flyers’ recent opponents have a combined winning percentage of .520, suggesting a slightly less difficult set of matchups.
Public Betting Trends and Line Movement
As of the latest data, the Flyers are favored with a moneyline of -143, while the Blue Jackets are at +121. The puck line is set at 1.5, and the total for the game is 6.5 goals. Public betting trends show 60% of bets on the Flyers’ moneyline and 55% on the over for total goals, indicating a slight public lean towards Philadelphia and a high-scoring game.
Prediction Models
Various NHL prediction models offer insights into this matchup:
- MoneyPuck: Projects a 52% win probability for the Flyers.
- The Athletic’s Model: Gives the Flyers a 54% chance of winning.
- Sportlogiq: Predicts a close game with a slight edge to the Flyers.
- Natural Stat Trick: Based on advanced metrics, suggests the Flyers have a marginal advantage.
- Evolving Hockey: Models a 53% win probability for the Flyers.
Predicted Outcome
Considering the analysis, the predicted final score is:
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 3
Confidence Level: Medium
Recommended Bet: Over 6.5 Total Goals
Reasoning: Both teams have shown defensive vulnerabilities, ranking 29th and 30th in goals against per game. Their recent games have trended towards higher scores, making the over on total goals a viable bet.
Player Props and Value Bets
- Travis Konecny (Flyers): Anytime Goal Scorer
