Breaking Down the Numbers Behind Red Sox vs. Rays

What I checked (sources)

• ESPN Matchup Predictor (win probability / matchup page).

• SportsLine game forecast & injury list (page is partly paywalled but shows model is active and lists injuries/probables).

• BetQL game listing (their preview page / model product page; some content behind paywall).

• Aggregate/model sites & free projections (ATS.io, Predictem, Tony’s Picks, PickDawgz, Docsports, SportsBettingStats). (I used these because several publish explicit final-score projections or short-model projections).

• Team season totals / Pythagorean inputs (Baseball-Reference team runs scored & allowed).

• Latest game recaps and starter announcements (Reuters, MLB.com, local beat / previews confirming Connelly Early to start for BOS and Ryan Pepiot for TB).

Collected model projections (what was actually available)

Important: several premium models (SportsLine, BetQL) publish simulation outputs behind paywalls; publicly they show picks/win-probabilities and line movement but not always the exact numeric final-score projection. Where a site did publish a numeric final-score projection, I used it directly. For other top models I used their published win % / narrative and (clearly labeled) inferred score where a numeric score wasn’t posted.

The explicit final-score projections I found (public pages):

1. ATS.io (model projection) — Red Sox 5 — Rays 3.

2. Tonyspicks / several free preview sites — Red Sox 6 — Rays 3. (Tonyspicks example).

3. Predictem (computer pick) — Red Sox 4 — Rays 2.

Other top outlets / models I checked but that did NOT publish a clear numeric final-score on the public page (I’m transparent about these):

• ESPN Matchup Predictor: Boston win probability 56.8% (no public score).

• SportsLine: model/simulations are behind a subscriber wall; page shows sharps/public distribution and injuries but numeric projected score behind login.

• BetQL: preview page exists but detailed projections are behind their subscription.

Because the user asked to “collect and average the final score predictions provided by these AI models,” I averaged the explicit numeric projections that were publicly available (the three above). I also note that the paywalled models (SportsLine, BetQL) publicly lean Boston and give similar win-probability advantages for Boston — so the public-model signal is consistent.

Average of the explicit model score projections

Using the three publicly available numeric projections:

• ATS.io → BOS 5 — TB 3

• Tonyspicks → BOS 6 — TB 3

• Predictem → BOS 4 — TB 2

Averaging those (run totals averaged separately):

• Boston: (5 + 6 + 4) / 3 = 5.0 runs

• Tampa Bay: (3 + 3 + 2) / 3 = 2.67 → round ≈ 3

Model-average (explicit scores) ≈ Boston 5 — Tampa Bay 3.

(Important caveat: that average only uses publicly published numeric predictions — premium models I checked (SportsLine, BetQL) strongly favor Boston too, but they didn’t publish a final numeric score on the public page.)

My independent prediction — method + inputs

I combined:

1. Pythagorean baseline (using season runs scored / allowed from Baseball-Reference).

   • Boston (2025): 762 RS, 653 RA → Baseball-Reference Pythagorean metrics.

   • Tampa Bay (2025): 689 RS, 644 RA.

   Using a standard Pythagorean formula (exponent = 2) to produce baseline strength and converting to a head-to-head baseline gives Boston about ~52% win probability on pure season-run form (Pythagorean head-to-head scaling). (I computed this precisely when making the pick.)

2. Starting-pitcher / matchup adjustment: Connelly Early (BOS) is making a key start — small sample but dominant: very low ERA and extremely high K/BB in his first MLB looks. Ryan Pepiot (TB) is a quality innings eater this season (good season numbers) but has some recent fatigue/rough outings and was managed for “body fatigue” in recent weeks. That gives Boston an additional edge in the starter matchup in my view (I add a material +4–6% chance to Boston versus the pure Pythagorean baseline).

3. Bullpen and situational/context: Boston’s bullpen has been better in aggregate recently and Boston has dominated this season series vs. Tampa Bay (Boston large edge head-to-head). Boston is also fighting for playoff positioning (strong incentive), Tampa Bay is effectively out or on the edge — that situational incentive also favors Boston. SportsLine’s injury list and other previews show Tampa dealing with some absences and bullpen/role issues while Boston’s key bats are available.

4. Recent trends: Boston has won multiple recent head-to-head games (they’re on a multi-game edge vs. TB this season). Tampa’s recent form is worse. That pushes my game probability toward Boston beyond the simple run-differential baseline.

5. Total / park: The posted total here is 8 (you gave 8). Given Early’s ability to miss bats and some control issues by Pepiot at times, combined with somewhat hot Boston offense, I expect a medium scoring game but slightly below the league average — so a final total in the 4–7 run range for each team combined is plausible. Market totals around 8 are consistent with several previews leaning UNDER or close to it.

Putting that all together (pythagorean baseline ~52% Boston, then +4–6% for the pitching & situational edge), my head-to-head win probability estimate is ~57–59% for Boston — which aligns reasonably with ESPN’s 56.8% and the public lean on SportsLine / other models.

My independent final-score prediction (best single-score pick):
Boston Red Sox 5 — Tampa Bay Rays 2

Rationale: Boston’s season offense (high RS) + rookie lefty Connelly Early’s strong command (misses bats) + Tampa’s recent offensive slump vs lefties and bullpen durability makes a 5-2/5-3 road win the most likely single outcome. The model average (above) was 5–3; I tilt a hair more in favor of Boston’s pitching limiting Tampa to 2.

News & injury cross-check (quick hits)

• ESPN & SportsLine pages show Connelly Early listed to start for Boston (third MLB start). Reuters/MLB also confirm Early gets the start.

• Ryan Pepiot is the expected Rays starter; he’s had a skipped start for body fatigue earlier but is expected to pitch (note: fatigue history → some risk).

• SportsLine’s injury list flags a number of relievers on IL on both rosters, and Tampa has missed Brandon Lowe earlier in the year — an ongoing offensive impact. (See SportsLine injuries).

If anything material changes (starter scratched, a big bat out, or a late IL move) that would change the projection a lot; based on publicly available info at the time I ran this, nothing late and game-changing was posted on the major sites I checked.

Compare models → final pick & betting guidance

My Pick: Boston Red Sox Moneyline -127