The Los Angeles Kings are set to face the Calgary Flames on January 11, 2025, at the Scotiabank Saddledome in Calgary, Alberta. This Pacific Division matchup features two teams with contrasting performances this season.
Team Records and Standings
As of January 11, 2025, the Kings boast a 24-10-5 record, placing them second in the Pacific Division with 53 points. The Flames hold a 19-14-7 record, positioning them fifth in the same division with 45 points.
Home and Away Performance
The Kings have demonstrated solid performance on the road, contributing to their strong standing in the division. The Flames have been formidable at home, with a 13-6-3 record at the Scotiabank Saddledome, indicating a strong home-ice advantage.
Scoring and Defensive Statistics
The Kings have scored 120 goals this season, ranking 19th in the league, and have allowed 96 goals, making them the top defensive team in terms of goals against. The Flames have scored 105 goals, placing them 29th, and have conceded 121 goals, ranking 13th in goals against.
Special Teams Performance
The Kings’ power play operates at 20.2%, ranking 19th in the NHL, while their penalty kill is strong at 82.6%, placing them 9th. The Flames’ power play stands at 16%, ranking 27th, and their penalty kill is at 70.4%, ranking 30th, indicating struggles in both special teams categories.
Goaltending
The Kings’ goaltender, Darcy Kuemper, has been exceptional, with a save percentage of .961 and a goals-against average (GAA) of 0.957.
For the Flames, Dustin Wolf has a save percentage of .956 and a GAA of 0.950, showcasing strong goaltending despite the team’s defensive challenges.
Advanced Metrics
In terms of puck possession, the Kings have a Corsi For Percentage (CF%) of 52.28% and a Fenwick For Percentage (FF%) of 53.27%, indicating effective puck control. The Flames have a CF% of 50.27% and an FF% of 51.47%, reflecting average possession metrics.
Head-to-Head History
In their previous meeting on January 8, 2025, the Flames secured a 3-1 victory over the Kings.
This recent win may provide the Flames with a psychological edge heading into the upcoming game.
Rest and Schedule
The Kings are coming off a 2-1 overtime win against the Winnipeg Jets, marking their fifth consecutive victory. This recent success indicates momentum but may also lead to fatigue due to the tight schedule. The Flames, having last played on January 8, may have the advantage of additional rest and preparation time.
Betting Odds and Public Trends
The Kings are favored with a moneyline of -125, while the Flames are at +105. The puck line is set at 1.5, and the total for the game is 5.5 goals. Public betting trends and line movements should be monitored closer to game time for more accurate insights.
Prediction Models Comparison
Various reputable NHL prediction models offer insights into this matchup:
- MoneyPuck: Provides advanced statistics and win probabilities, which can be referenced for detailed analysis
- The Athletic’s Model: Offers game predictions and betting insights, accessible through their platform.
- Sportlogiq: Delivers data-driven analysis and predictions, available to subscribers.
- Natural Stat Trick: Features advanced metrics and game projections, useful for in-depth analysis.
- Evolving Hockey: Provides statistical models and predictions, accessible through their website.
Predicted Outcome
Considering the Kings’ superior defensive performance, effective puck possession, and recent winning streak, they are poised to secure a victory. The Flames’ home-ice advantage and recent head-to-head win suggest a competitive matchup.
- Predicted Final Score: Kings 3, Flames 2
- Confidence Level: Medium
- Recommended Bet: Moneyline on the Kings (-125)
Key Matchups to Watch
- Kings’ Offense vs. Flames’ Defense: The Kings’ ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities against the Flames’ defense will be crucial.
- Special Teams Battle: The Kings’ effective penalty kill against the Flames’ struggling power play could be a deciding factor.
- Goaltending Duel: Both teams feature strong goaltending; the performance of Kuemper and Wolf will significantly influence the game’s outcome.
Player Prop Bets
- Adrian Kempe (Kings): Bet on Kempe to score a goal, given his status as the Kings’ leading goal scorer with 20 goals this season.
- Dustin Wolf (Flames): Consider betting on Wolf to have over 30.5 saves, reflecting his high save percentage and the Kings’ shooting tendencies.
Conclusion
This Pacific Division matchup between the Los Angeles Kings and the Calgary Flames presents an intriguing battle of styles. The Kings enter with a strong defensive identity, efficient puck possession, and superior special teams, while the Flames rely on their home-ice advantage and the momentum of a recent head-to-head victory. Both teams feature standout goaltending, with Kuemper and Wolf set to be pivotal in the game’s outcome.
The Kings are favored on the moneyline (-125), and with good reason—they have been more consistent both offensively and defensively throughout the season. The Flames’ struggles on special teams, particularly their penalty kill, make it challenging for them to hold off the Kings’ power-play unit. While Calgary’s strong home record adds an element of unpredictability, the Kings’ overall performance metrics, including advanced analytics like Corsi and Fenwick, give them the edge in this contest.
Betting on the Kings’ moneyline provides solid value given their form and statistical advantage. For those seeking additional value, consider player prop bets like Adrian Kempe to score or Dustin Wolf to have over 30.5 saves. These options align with the likely flow of the game, where the Kings should generate significant scoring opportunities, and the Flames’ goaltending will need to stand tall.
Key Factors to Watch
- Special Teams Battle: The Kings’ penalty kill could neutralize the Flames’ already weak power play, which may be a tipping point in a close game.
- Goaltender Performances: Kuemper’s stellar stats (.961 SV%, 0.957 GAA) against Wolf’s solid numbers (.956 SV%, 0.950 GAA) suggest this will be a low-scoring game with high-pressure moments for each goaltender.
- Momentum vs. Rest: While the Kings have momentum with a five-game win streak, their tight schedule may lead to fatigue. The Flames’ additional rest could be a deciding factor if the game remains close late into the third period.
- Head-to-Head Dynamics: The Flames’ recent 3-1 victory over the Kings may boost their confidence, particularly on home ice. However, the Kings will likely adjust their strategies to counter Calgary’s approach in this rematch.
