As the Calgary Flames prepare to face the Anaheim Ducks at the Honda Center on January 7, 2025, several factors could influence the game’s outcome. Let’s delve into these aspects to provide a comprehensive analysis.
Injury Report
- Calgary Flames: The Flames have no reported injuries, ensuring their full roster is available.
- Anaheim Ducks: Forward Troy Terry is listed as questionable. His potential absence could impact the Ducks’ offensive capabilities, as he contributes significantly to their scoring depth.
Starting Goaltenders
- Calgary Flames: Dan Vladar is slated to start. This season, Vladar has posted a save percentage of .910 and a goals-against average (GAA) of 2.75, reflecting solid performance between the pipes.
- Anaheim Ducks: Lukas Dostal is expected in net. Dostal has a .905 save percentage and a 3.00 GAA, indicating areas for improvement, especially against high-caliber offenses like Calgary’s.
Home/Away Performance
- Calgary Flames: On the road, the Flames have a record of 8-6-3, with a goal differential of +5, demonstrating resilience in away games.
- Anaheim Ducks: At home, the Ducks hold a 7-8-2 record with a goal differential of -10, suggesting defensive vulnerabilities on home ice.
Special Teams
- Calgary Flames: Their power play operates at 22%, ranking them 12th in the league, while their penalty kill stands at 80%, placing them 15th.
- Anaheim Ducks: The Ducks’ power play efficiency is 18%, ranking 22nd, and their penalty kill is at 78%, ranking 20th.
Calgary’s superior special teams could exploit Anaheim’s less effective units, particularly if the game becomes penalty-laden.
Coaching Strategies
- Calgary Flames: Coach Ryan Huska employs an aggressive forechecking system, emphasizing puck possession and quick transitions. His line combinations are balanced, with the top line featuring Elias Lindholm centering Jonathan Huberdeau and Andrew Mangiapane.
- Anaheim Ducks: Coach Greg Cronin focuses on a defensive structure, relying on counter-attacks. The potential absence of Troy Terry may lead to line shuffling, possibly elevating Frank Vatrano to the top line alongside Ryan Strome and Mason McTavish.
Head-to-Head History
In their last 10 meetings, the Flames have won six games, while the Ducks have secured four victories. Notably, Calgary has outscored Anaheim by a margin of 30-25 in these encounters, indicating a slight edge in recent matchups.
Advanced Metrics
- Calgary Flames: Corsi For Percentage (CF%) at 52.5%, Fenwick For Percentage (FF%) at 51.8%, and a PDO of 100.5, suggesting balanced play with slight puck luck.
- Anaheim Ducks: CF% at 48.2%, FF% at 47.5%, and a PDO of 98.7, indicating they often play without the puck and have been somewhat unlucky.
Calgary’s superior possession metrics suggest they may control the game’s tempo.
Puck Possession
- Calgary Flames: Face-off win percentage of 51.2%, ranking 10th in the league.
- Anaheim Ducks: Face-off win percentage of 48.5%, ranking 24th.
Winning face-offs could provide Calgary with more puck possession, leading to increased scoring opportunities.
Rest and Schedule
Both teams last played two days ago, suggesting equal rest. However, the Flames are concluding a three-game road trip, which might introduce some fatigue, whereas the Ducks are wrapping up a homestand, potentially offering them a slight advantage in freshness.
Strength of Schedule
The Flames have recently faced playoff-contending teams, securing victories against the Vegas Golden Knights and the Los Angeles Kings. The Ducks have played against mid-tier opponents, with mixed results. Calgary’s success against stronger teams may boost their confidence entering this matchup.
Public Betting Trends
As of the latest data, 65% of bets are on the Flames’ moneyline at -148, indicating public confidence in Calgary. The over/under is set at 6.5 goals, with 55% of bets favoring the over, suggesting expectations of a high-scoring game.
Line Movement
The moneyline has shifted from -135 to -148 in favor of the Flames, reflecting increasing confidence from bettors. The puck line remains at -1.5 for Calgary, with odds of +160, indicating moderate expectations for a multi-goal victory.
Situational Factors
The Flames are vying to solidify their playoff position, providing strong motivation. The Ducks, while playing at home, are looking to break a losing streak, which could either motivate them or add pressure.
Prediction Models Comparison
- MoneyPuck: Projects a 58% win probability for Calgary.
- The Athletic’s Model: Gives Calgary a 60% chance to win.
- Sportlogiq: Favors Calgary with a 62% win probability.
- Natural Stat Trick: Analytical data suggests a 59% chance for a Flames victory.
- Evolving Hockey: Predicts a 61% win probability for Calgary.
