The matchup on November 16, 2024, at LaVell Edwards Stadium between the Kansas Jayhawks and BYU Cougars presents an intriguing clash of teams with contrasting seasons. The Jayhawks, struggling at 3-6 overall, face off against the undefeated Cougars, who are 9-0 and ranked 7th nationally. This analysis will evaluate predictions from various models, assess key player injuries, and apply statistical methods to forecast the game outcome.
Current Team Overview
Kansas Jayhawks
- Record: 3-6 overall, 2-4 in Big 12
- Scoring: 31.7 points per game
- Defense: 25.9 points allowed per game
- Key Players:
- Jalon Daniels (QB): 1,816 passing yards, 19 TDs
- Devin Neal (RB): 874 rushing yards
- Luke Grimm (WR): 505 receiving yards
- Injuries: Key offensive players including QB Cole Ballard and WRs Keaton Kubecka, Isreal Moses V, and Jarred Sample are sidelined.
BYU Cougars
- Record: 9-0 overall, 6-0 in Big 12
- Scoring: 33.7 points per game
- Defense: 19.8 points allowed per game
- Key Players:
- Jake Retzlaff (QB): 2,091 passing yards, 22 TDs
- Chase Roberts (WR): 588 receiving yards
- LJ Martin (RB): 425 rushing yards
- Injuries: WR Kody Epps is out.
Prediction Models Analysis
Five successful NCAA Football prediction models were analyzed for their forecasts on this matchup:
- ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI): Predicts BYU to win with a projected score of BYU 34, Kansas 27.
- Sagarin Ratings: Suggests a closer game with BYU winning by a margin of just three points.
- Massey Ratings: Projects a BYU victory with a score of BYU 31, Kansas 28.
- AccuScore Model: Simulates the game multiple times and gives BYU a higher chance of winning by an average score of BYU 33, Kansas 24.
- College Football Data API Model: Estimates a final score of BYU 30, Kansas 25.
Additionally, two betting models provided insights:
- BetQL: Predicts BYU to cover the spread with a final score of BYU 32, Kansas 26.
- SportsLine: Offers a similar prediction with BYU winning by four points.
Summary of Model Predictions
| Model | Predicted Score | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| ESPN FPI | BYU 34 – Kansas 27 | BYU +7 |
| Sagarin Ratings | BYU by 3 | Close Game |
| Massey Ratings | BYU 31 – Kansas 28 | BYU +3 |
| AccuScore | BYU 33 – Kansas 24 | BYU +9 |
| College Football Data API | BYU 30 – Kansas 25 | BYU +5 |
| BetQL | BYU 32 – Kansas 26 | BYU +6 |
| SportsLine | Similar to BetQL | Similar |
Calculating an Average Final Score
To obtain an average final score from these predictions:
- Add all predicted scores for both teams.
- Divide by the number of predictions.
For BYU:
For Kansas:
Thus, the average predicted score is:
- BYU Cougars: 32
- Kansas Jayhawks: 26
Moneyline and Spread Predictions
Given the moneyline odds:
- Kansas Jayhawks: +111 (underdog)
- BYU Cougars: -134 (favorite)
The spread is set at 2.5 points, favoring BYU.
My Prediction
Considering the Pythagorean theorem for football scoring and strength of schedule:
For both teams:
- Kansas’s scoring efficiency indicates they can keep games close despite injuries.
- BYU’s strong performance against tougher opponents supports their status as favorites.
Taking into account injuries and recent performances:
- I predict a final score of BYU Cougars: 31, Kansas Jayhawks: 27, giving a slight edge to Kansas covering the spread while still favoring a home victory for BYU.
Conclusion
In conclusion, while all models favor a BYU victory, the combination of player injuries for Kansas and their recent performance suggests they could keep it competitive. The best pick would be to bet on BYU to win but consider taking Kansas against the spread due to their offensive capabilities despite injuries.
