The Boston Celtics and New York Knicks are set for a pivotal Game 4 showdown tonight at Madison Square Garden, with the Knicks leading the series 2-1. After the Celtics dominated Game 3 (115-93), the pressure is on New York to respond at home and regain control of the series.
This matchup features two of the NBA’s most storied franchises, each with championship aspirations. The Celtics, known for their elite defense and balanced scoring, must contain a hungry Knicks squad that thrives on physicality and home-court energy. Meanwhile, New York will look to exploit Boston’s occasional road inconsistencies and protect their home floor in front of a raucous MSG crowd.
Key Storylines Heading Into Game 4
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Series Momentum Shift – After a blowout loss in Game 3, will the Knicks adjust defensively, or will Boston’s offense continue to roll?
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Home Court Advantage – The Knicks are +6.5 underdogs at home, an intriguing line given their strong record at MSG this postseason.
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Injury Watch – Celtics wing Sam Hauser (questionable) could be a factor—if he sits, Boston loses a key floor-spacer.
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Defensive Battle or Shootout? – The total is set at 209.5, suggesting a tight, physical game, but will the stars push the pace?
Top 5 NBA AI Betting Models for Predictions
| Model | Predicted Celtics Score | Predicted Knicks Score | Predicted Margin | Total Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetQL | 108 | 102 | Celtics -6 | 210 |
| ESPN BPI | 106 | 101 | Celtics -5 | 207 |
| SportsLine | 107 | 103 | Celtics -4 | 210 |
| Unabated | 109 | 100 | Celtics -9 | 209 |
| TeamRankings | 105 | 104 | Celtics -1 | 209 |
| Average | 107.0 | 102.0 | Celtics -5.0 | 209.0 |
Our Custom AI Prediction
Key Factors:
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Pythagorean Win Expectation:
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Celtics (Offensive Rating: 118.4, Defensive Rating: 110.2)
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Knicks (Offensive Rating: 115.8, Defensive Rating: 112.6)
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Expected Score: Celtics 108.5 – Knicks 103.1 (Margin: Celtics -5.4)
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Injury Impact:
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Sam Hauser (Questionable) – If he sits, Celtics lose a key 3PT shooter (~6 PPG).
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Knicks are fully healthy – Advantage at home.
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Trends:
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Celtics won last game 115-93 (adjusted for regression).
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Knicks are 2-1 in the series (home court matters).
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Final Custom Prediction:
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Celtics 107 – Knicks 103 (Celtics -4) | Total: 210
Combined Prediction (Averaging AI Models + Our Model)
| Source | Predicted Margin | Total Points |
|---|---|---|
| AI Average | Celtics -5.0 | 209.0 |
| Our Model | Celtics -4.0 | 210.0 |
| Combined | Celtics -4.5 | 209.5 |
Betting Recommendation
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Spread: Knicks +6.5 (Value Pick)
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Models average Celtics -4.5, but the line is Celtics -6.5 → Knicks cover
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Total: Under 209.5 (Slight Lean)
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Models average 209.0, and the Celtics’ defense has been strong.
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Pick
- Take the New York Knicks +6.5
