College basketball fans are gearing up for an exciting showdown between the Boston University Terriers and the Lafayette Leopards. This matchup marks the beginning of Patriot League play for both teams and with each squad looking to establish momentum, the stakes couldn’t be higher. The Terriers, fresh off a thrilling win, will face a Leopards team desperate to snap a three-game losing streak.
Date: Thursday, January 2, 2025
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Arena: Kirby Sports Center, Easton, PA
As the NCAA Men’s Basketball season heats up, fans
With so much on the line, let’s dive into an in-depth analysis of what to expect from this game.
Current Form
Boston University Terriers
The Terriers enter this game with a record of 6-7, having recently concluded a four-game road trip. Their last outing was a nail-biter against Maine, where they secured a 59-56 victory thanks to a dramatic late-game surge. This win not only boosted their confidence but also showcased their resilience, as they have now managed to pull off four victories after trailing in the final five minutes of games this season.
Key players for Boston University include Kyrone Alexander, who leads the team with an average of 13.3 points per game (PPG) and has been crucial in their recent performances. Another standout is Michael McNair, contributing 10.0 PPG and providing solid support on both ends of the court.
Lafayette Leopards
On the flip side, the Lafayette Leopards come into this matchup with a record of 5-8 and are looking to end their three-game losing streak. Their most recent defeat came against Stonehill, where they fell short at home with a score of 70-65. Despite their struggles, Lafayette has shown flashes of brilliance, particularly at home where they have gone 4-2 this season.
Leading the charge for Lafayette is freshman standout Alex Chaikin, averaging 11.2 PPG while shooting an impressive 56.6% from three-point range. Additionally, senior center Justin Vander Baan adds depth with his scoring and defensive presence, averaging 11.1 PPG and contributing nearly three blocks per game.
Key Statistics
Offensive and Defensive Efficiency
Both teams have had their ups and downs in terms of efficiency:
- Boston University averages 69.3 points per game (PPG) while allowing 68.7 PPG.
- Lafayette, on the other hand, scores slightly higher at 69.6 PPG but allows more points at 70.4 PPG.
In terms of effective field goal percentage:
- Boston University has a rate of 44.6%, while Lafayette sits lower at 41.3%.
Turnovers and Rebounding
Turnover rates are critical in determining possession:
- Boston University averages about 13.4 turnovers per game, which is concerning.
- Lafayette is more efficient here, averaging only 10.4 turnovers per game, giving them an edge in ball control.
Rebounding is another area where Boston University shines, averaging 36.5 rebounds per game compared to Lafayette’s 33.3 rebounds per game.
Notable Injuries
As of now, both teams appear to be relatively healthy with no significant injuries reported that would impact their rotations or strategies heading into this game.
Why Pick Over 128.5 Total Points
Given the current statistics and trends for both teams, betting on the over for total points set at 128.5 seems like a sound strategy for several reasons:
- Scoring Trends: Both teams have shown they can score effectively when needed, averaging close to 70 points each per game.
- Recent Games: The Terriers’ last game ended with a total of 115 points scored, but prior games have seen higher totals that suggest they can exceed this line when facing weaker defenses like Lafayette’s.
- Defensive Vulnerabilities: Both teams have allowed over 68 points per game on average, indicating that high-scoring opportunities will likely present themselves throughout the contest.
- Prediction Models: Utilizing five respected NCAA basketball prediction models:
- KenPom predicts a score of Boston University 70 – Lafayette 68.
- Bart Torvik suggests Boston University 71 – Lafayette 69.
- Sagarin Ratings forecast Boston University 72 – Lafayette 67.
- Haslametrics shows Boston University 70 – Lafayette 66.
- ESPN BPI estimates Boston University 69 – Lafayette 68.
These models consistently project scores that exceed the total set at 128.5 points.
Conclusion: The Excitement Awaits
As we gear up for this thrilling matchup between Boston University and Lafayette, fans can expect an intense battle filled with scoring opportunities and strategic plays from both sides. With both teams eager to establish themselves in Patriot League play, every possession will matter.
Picking on the over at 128.5 total points appears to be a promising strategy given both teams’ scoring capabilities and defensive weaknesses highlighted by recent performances and statistical analyses from various prediction models.
PICK: over 128.5 total points LOSE
