The atmosphere at Yankee Stadium is always electric when the Boston Red Sox come to town. This afternoon’s game is no different. With the Red Sox now holding a half-game lead over the Yankees for the top American League Wild Card spot, every pitch matters. The Red Sox have been on a tear against their historic rivals, winning seven consecutive games in their season series. That’s their longest winning streak against the Yankees since a seven-game run in 2023.
Boston’s recent success against New York, highlighted by a thrilling 1-0 victory on Friday, has shifted the momentum and control of their playoff hopes. Now, with their ace pitcher on the mound, the Red Sox are looking to continue their domination and create more distance between themselves and the Yankees in the standings. Let’s dive deep into the key factors that will decide this high-stakes matchup.
Pitching Matchup: A Clear Advantage for Boston
The biggest reason for the Red Sox’s confidence today is their starting pitcher, Garrett Crochet. He has been one of the best pitchers in all of baseball this season. His stats speak for themselves: a 13-5 record, a fantastic 2.43 ERA, and a stellar 1.07 WHIP. He has been consistently great, allowing two or fewer runs in 10 of his last 13 starts. Crochet has also had success against the Yankees this year, including a dominant performance in June where he gave up just one run over 8 1/3 innings. When a team has its best pitcher on the mound, its chances of winning are always high.
On the other side, the Yankees are starting rookie right-hander Will Warren. He has a solid 7-5 record, but his other numbers are not as impressive, with a 4.25 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP. While Warren has shown improvement recently, allowing two or fewer earned runs in seven of his last eight starts, he is still a less experienced pitcher facing a team that has already given him trouble this season. In his one previous start against the Red Sox, he gave up four runs and four walks, and the Yankees barely won that game. This significant difference in pitching talent at the start of the game is a critical point in Boston’s favor.
Team Performance and Offensive Trends
The Red Sox’s offense has been strong, though not always at its best in this series. They have scored a total of 36 runs against the Yankees in their seven recent wins, showing their ability to put up big numbers. Although they struggled with runners in scoring position on Friday, they still managed to find a way to win. Players like Alex Bregman, who has been consistently hitting well with a .356 average over his last 24 games, are key to their lineup’s success. Even when the bats are quiet, the Red Sox have found ways to win.
The Yankees’ offense, while powerful on paper, has been surprisingly quiet against the Red Sox. In Friday’s game, they were held to just three hits and had no runners in scoring position. This lack of production against their rival is a big concern. Although they had a five-game winning streak before this series, their struggles against Boston this season are difficult to overlook. They have been outscored 36-21 in the games since their lone win against the Red Sox back in June.
Why I’m Confident in the Red Sox Moneyline Prediction
My analysis points to a Red Sox victory today. My confidence comes from a combination of factors, including the huge pitching mismatch and the undeniable momentum Boston has against New York. Several successful prediction models also support this conclusion.
- FanGraphs: Predicts a 57% chance of a Red Sox win, projecting a final score of Red Sox 4, Yankees 3.
- Baseball Prospectus PECOTA: Gives the Red Sox a strong advantage, forecasting a win probability of over 60%.
- FiveThirtyEight’s MLB model: Also favors the Red Sox, with a win probability of 53%.
- The Action Network: Their model projects a similar outcome, with the Red Sox having a slight edge.
- Massey Ratings: This model sees the Red Sox as the superior team in this matchup, projecting a final score of Red Sox 5, Yankees 4.
These models, while not perfect, use detailed data and past performance to create a clear picture of the likely outcome. They all seem to agree on one thing: the Red Sox are the more likely team to win today.
Injury Report
Injuries can always change a game’s outcome. The Red Sox are without several key players, including Tanner Houck (Elbow) and Triston Casas (Knee), who are both out for the season. Other key players, such as Wilyer Abreu and Rob Refsnyder, are also out with shorter-term injuries.
For the Yankees, their injury list is also significant. Their ace, Gerrit Cole, is out for the season, which is a major blow to their pitching staff. They also have several other pitchers and position players on the injured list, including Austin Slater and Oswaldo Cabrera. While these injuries are important to note, the Red Sox have shown they can overcome their absences, while the Yankees’ struggles have been more pronounced.
Conclusion
This is more than just a regular-season game; it’s a battle for playoff position. The Red Sox have an undeniable advantage today with their top pitcher, Garrett Crochet, on the mound. Their recent success against the Yankees has built strong momentum, and their ability to win close games, as seen on Friday, shows their resilience. The Yankees will need a big performance from their rookie pitcher and a major offensive breakthrough to turn things around. The Red Sox are in a great position to extend their winning streak against their rivals and solidify their hold on a playoff spot. It will be an exciting game to watch, and all eyes will be on Crochet to see if he can continue his incredible season.
My pick: Red Sox -125 moneyline WIN
