Don’t miss your chance to win $1000 in the ATS Wins countdown to kickoff giveaway
Date: Tuesday, July 30, 2024
Time: 6:35 p.m. ET
Arena: Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD
Are you ready for another thrilling MLB game tonight? The Toronto Blue Jays and the Baltimore Orioles are set to clash at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. If you’re a baseball enthusiast or just someone looking for some excitement, you’ll want to keep an eye on this game. Here’s a deep dive into what makes this matchup fascinating, and why you might lean towards expecting more than 8.5 total runs scored.
Setting the Stage
The Blue Jays and the Orioles are coming off a busy Monday that included a doubleheader and some noteworthy trades. The teams split the doubleheader, with the Orioles taking the first game 11-5, and the Blue Jays bouncing back to win the nightcap 8-4. Weather delays and roster changes added to the drama, setting up a compelling narrative for tonight’s game.
Toronto Blue Jays: Recent Moves and Key Players
The Blue Jays have been on a roll, winning four of their last five games. They’ve been making strategic moves, including trading infielder Justin Turner to the Seattle Mariners. Rookie Addison Barger stepped up in a big way, hitting his first career home run, a three-run blast, right after filling in for Turner.
Toronto’s lineup has shown resilience and adaptability. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been on fire, collecting seven hits and hitting a home run in each game of the doubleheader. Guerrero’s recent form is a good sign for the Blue Jays, as his offensive contributions will be crucial against the Orioles.
Starting Pitcher: Chris Bassitt
Chris Bassitt, the right-hander, will be on the mound for Toronto tonight. Bassitt has a 3.78 ERA and an 8-9 record this season. Although he has lost three of his last four starts, he has been consistently delivering solid innings, going at least five innings in 15 consecutive outings. Bassitt’s history against the Orioles shows a mix of outcomes, with a 3-2 record and a 4.79 ERA in six starts. He has struck out 39 batters in 35 2/3 innings against Baltimore, which indicates he can be effective if he brings his A-game.
Baltimore Orioles: Challenges and Opportunities
The Orioles have had a mixed homestand, with a 2-3 record over their last five games. They struggled in the second game of the doubleheader, committing three errors and allowing three unearned runs. Such sloppy play can be costly, and manager Brandon Hyde will undoubtedly be emphasizing the need for cleaner fielding tonight.
Starting Pitcher: Corbin Burnes
Taking the mound for Baltimore is All-Star Corbin Burnes. With a 10-4 record and a 2.45 ERA, Burnes has been a standout performer. He’s allowed three or fewer runs in each of his last five starts, showcasing his consistency and reliability. Burnes has faced the Blue Jays twice this season, allowing only two runs over 13 innings, which included a no-decision and a win. His past performances against Toronto, combined with his current form, make him a formidable opponent.
Batting Averages and Team Performance
When looking at the batting averages, the Blue Jays are hitting .258 as a team, while the Orioles are at .250. These numbers indicate that both teams are capable of generating offense, but Toronto has a slight edge in consistency at the plate.
Top 5 MLB Prediction Models:
- FiveThirtyEight:
- Predicted Total Runs: 10.2
- FanGraphs:
- Predicted Total Runs: 9.0
- Baseball-Reference:
- Predicted Total Runs: 9.4
- OddsTrader: .
- Predicted Total Runs: 10.6
- Covers: Aggregates expert picks and betting trends (Covers.com).
- Predicted Total Runs: 9.5
Why Over 8.5 Total Runs is a Good Pick
Given the recent performances and the stats of the starting pitchers, why is the over 8.5 runs a promising pick? Let’s break it down:
- Toronto’s Offensive Momentum: The Blue Jays have been scoring well, thanks to Guerrero’s hot streak and contributions from players like Addison Barger. Their recent games have seen high-scoring affairs, which is a positive indicator.
- Baltimore’s Defensive Issues: The Orioles’ defensive lapses in the second game of the doubleheader highlight potential vulnerabilities. If they continue to make errors, it could lead to more scoring opportunities for Toronto.
- Pitchers’ Performance: While Burnes has been excellent, Bassitt’s mixed results and the Blue Jays’ ability to hit against him suggest that runs will be scored. Burnes can hold his own, but if he falters even slightly, Toronto’s hitters are poised to capitalize.
- Game Context: Both teams have had a long day of baseball, and roster changes might affect their dynamics. This unpredictable element can sometimes lead to higher scoring games as teams adjust.
- Additional Factors: Weather conditions look stable, and no significant injuries are expected to affect key players, barring James McCann’s possible absence for Baltimore.
Encouraging the Over Pick
Considering all these factors, expecting over 8.5 total runs tonight is a logical and exciting prediction. Why? Because the Blue Jays’ offensive power, coupled with the Orioles’ potential defensive slip-ups, sets the stage for a high-scoring game. Additionally, both teams have shown they can put runs on the board, and tonight should be no different.
So, grab your popcorn, sit back, and enjoy what promises to be a thrilling MLB game. Whether you’re a fan of the Blue Jays or the Orioles, this matchup has all the ingredients for an exciting evening of baseball. And if you’re thinking about the total runs, over 8.5 looks like a solid call given the recent trends and performances. Let’s see how it plays out!
PICK: over 8.5 total runs LOSE
