The 2025 Big Sky Championship game between the Montana Grizzlies and Northern Colorado Bears promises to be a thrilling contest at Idaho Central Arena in Boise, Idaho. Both teams enter the matchup in strong form, with Montana riding a three-game winning streak and Northern Colorado boasting six consecutive victories. This blog post analyzes the key factors that will shape the outcome, including team statistics, coaching strategies, tempo, shooting efficiency, and advanced metrics.
Team Overview
Montana Grizzlies (24-9, 15-3 Big Sky)
Montana has been solid offensively this season, averaging 76.5 points per game (105th nationally) and shooting 49.1% from the field (34th). Over their last ten games, the Grizzlies have improved their shooting efficiency to 52.8%, scoring 77.5 points per game while limiting opponents to 69.4 points. However, rebounding remains a weakness for Montana, ranking 276th nationally in rebounding percentage
Key players include:
- Money Williams: Averaging 15.9 points over the last ten games, Williams has emerged as Montana’s go-to scorer.
- Josh Bannan: A versatile contributor on both ends of the floor, Bannan provides rebounding and defensive support.
Northern Colorado Bears (25-8, 15-3 Big Sky)
Northern Colorado excels offensively, ranking 35th nationally with an average of 80.8 points per game and shooting an impressive 50.9% from the field (18th). The Bears also lead the Big Sky in rebounding metrics, ranking fourth nationally in offensive rebounds allowed and 13th in total rebounds allowed. Defensively, they hold opponents to just 67.8 points per game over their last ten outings.
Key players include:
- Isaiah Hawthorne: Leading the team with 17.5 points per game while shooting 40.1% from three-point range.
- Jaron Rillie: A reliable playmaker and rebounder who complements Hawthorne’s scoring prowess.
Statistical Comparison
| Category | Montana Grizzlies | Northern Colorado Bears |
|---|---|---|
| Points per Game | 76.5 (105th) | 80.8 (35th) |
| Field Goal Percentage | 49.1% (34th) | 50.9% (18th) |
| Three-Point Percentage | 35.7% (99th) | 37.6% (33rd) |
| Defensive Points Allowed | ~72 | ~72 |
| Rebounding Rank | 276th | Top 20 |
Northern Colorado holds an edge in scoring efficiency and rebounding, two critical areas that could determine the outcome of this neutral-site matchup.
Coaching Analysis
Montana’s Travis DeCuire is a seasoned coach nearing his program’s all-time wins record4. Known for his ability to motivate players and make tactical adjustments mid-game, DeCuire emphasizes shooting efficiency but faces challenges with his team’s rebounding struggles.
Northern Colorado’s Steve Smiley has built a reputation for fostering disciplined play and leveraging his team’s strengths in rebounding and efficient scoring3. Smiley’s ability to adapt his strategies based on opponent weaknesses gives him an edge in high-stakes games like this one.
Key Factors
Tempo
Montana prefers a slower-paced game focused on half-court sets and efficient shot selection, while Northern Colorado thrives in a faster tempo that creates transition opportunities and maximizes their rebounding advantage.
Three-Point Shooting
Both teams are capable from beyond the arc, but Northern Colorado’s higher efficiency (37.6%) gives them a slight edge over Montana (35.7%). Hawthorne’s ability to stretch defenses could be pivotal.
Strength of Schedule
Both teams faced similar competition within the Big Sky Conference but split their regular-season matchups:
- Northern Colorado dominated Montana in an early-season blowout (81-57), leveraging superior rebounding and defense.
- Montana responded with a stunning upset later in the season, shooting an incredible 62% from the field
Advanced Metrics
KenPom ratings favor Northern Colorado due to their top-tier offensive efficiency and rebounding dominance. However, Montana’s recent shooting surge could make them a dangerous underdog.
Betting Trends & Predictions
Line Movement
Northern Colorado enters as a slight favorite (-147 moneyline), with Montana as an underdog (+122). The spread is set at -2.5 for Northern Colorado, while the total is set at 146.5 points.
Public Betting Trends
Public betting leans slightly toward Northern Colorado due to their superior metrics and recent form.
Prediction Models
Respected models like KenPom, Sagarin Ratings, Bart Torvik, Haslametrics, and ESPN BPI project Northern Colorado as favorites by an average margin of five points.
Projected Final Score
Northern Colorado Bears: 78
Montana Grizzlies: 73
Confidence Level: Medium
While Northern Colorado holds statistical advantages in key areas like rebounding and shooting efficiency, Montana’s recent improvement in shooting makes them capable of pulling off an upset.
Recommended Bets
- Spread: Bet on Northern Colorado (-2.5). Their consistent performance across multiple metrics suggests they can cover this modest spread.
- Total: Consider betting the over (146.5). Both teams have been scoring efficiently in recent games.
- Player Props: Isaiah Hawthorne over on points scored (~17), given his consistent production and three-point efficiency.
Key Mismatches
Northern Colorado’s rebounding dominance could overwhelm Montana on second-chance opportunities, especially if the Grizzlies fail to match intensity on the boards.
Hawthorne’s perimeter shooting poses a significant threat against Montana’s defense ranked low nationally in effective field goal percentage allowed.
In conclusion, expect a competitive game with Northern Colorado leveraging their strengths to secure the Big Sky Championship title barring an exceptional performance by Montana’s shooters or unforeseen adjustments by Coach DeCuire.
