Monday, June 17, 2024 at 8:05 PM ET, Globe Life Field Arlington, TX
The New York Mets (33-37) head to Arlington, Texas, to take on the struggling Texas Rangers (33-38) in a three-game series opener tonight. The Mets are riding a season-high five-game winning streak and are hungry to climb further into playoff contention. The Rangers, on the other hand, are in a slump, having lost eight of their last twelve games. This pitching matchup and recent offensive trends suggest a high-scoring affair, making the Over 8.5 total runs a tempting bet.
Top MLB Prediction Models
- The Baseball Reference Win Expectancy (WEP): Mets: 5.2 Runs, Rangers: 5.0 Runs
- Fangraphs’ ZiPS Projections: Mets: 6.1 Runs, Rangers: 5.4 Runs
- TeamRankings’ Power Ratings: Mets: 4.9 Runs, Rangers: 4.7 Runs
Mets on Fire: Offense Heating Up
The Mets’ recent success stems from their revitalized offense. After a rough stretch, slugger Pete Alonso finally broke out of his slump with a home run and five RBIs in their series finale against the Padres. Francisco Lindor echoed the team’s positive momentum, emphasizing their focus on riding this hot streak.
Despite missing key players like Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, and Tyler Mahle due to injuries, the Mets still boast a respectable batting average of .243. Their 78 home runs rank them in the middle of the pack, and they’ve scored 313 runs so far this season.
David Peterson on the Mound: Looking to Continue Strong Start
David Peterson (2-0, 4.32 ERA) will get the starting nod for the Mets. He’s been solid in his three starts since returning from injury, allowing just two earned runs in each of his first two outings. While his last start saw him give up four runs, he still managed to secure the win against the Marlins.
Texas Struggles: Offense Needs to Find Spark
The Rangers’ woes lie in their inconsistent offense. Their star trio of Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, and Adolis Garcia have been ice-cold recently, going hitless in a combined 11 at-bats during their last game. Their team batting average of .238 sits slightly lower than the Mets, and their 68 home runs suggest a less potent offense overall.
Despite these struggles, Texas has the potential for a high-scoring offense. They have a decent number of runs scored (300) on the season, and with key players like Josh Jung and Evan Carter sidelined by injuries, their full offensive capabilities haven’t been showcased.
Jon Gray Takes the Hill for Texas: Can He Contain the Mets?
Jon Gray (2-2, 2.17 ERA) will start for the Rangers. He’s been pitching well this season with a stellar 2.17 ERA. However, his past performance against the Mets paints a different picture. In seven career starts against them, he has a losing record (1-3) with a much higher ERA (7.41).
Model Predictions and Why Over 8.5 Runs is Favorable
Several statistical models predict a close game with a decent amount of scoring. The Baseball Reference Win Expectancy (WEP) suggests a close matchup based on runs scored and allowed (Mets: 5.2 Runs, Rangers: 5.0 Runs). Fangraphs’ ZiPS projections see the Mets scoring slightly more (6.1 Runs). Even the ESPN Baseball Power Index (BPI) leans towards the Mets with a projected run differential of +0.5.
While these are just predictions, the recent offensive trends of both teams, combined with the question mark surrounding Jon Gray’s performance against the Mets, point towards a high-scoring affair. The Mets are red-hot, and the Rangers, despite their struggles, have the potential to erupt offensively.
Taking All Factors into Account: Over 8.5 the Smart Bet
While the Mets’ pitching has been shaky at times, their offense is clicking. The Rangers desperately need to find their offensive rhythm, and facing a pitcher they’ve historically hit well against could be the spark they need. With both teams capable of putting up runs, and statistical models predicting a decent amount of scoring, taking the Over 8.5 total runs seems like the smarter bet for tonight’s matchup.
Pick: Over 8.5 WINNER
