The Chicago Cubs host the New York Mets in a battle between two teams looking to solidify their playoff positions. Here, we’ll analyze the matchup using various prediction models, the Pythagorean theorem, strength of schedule, and current trends to create the best possible pick.
Consulting the Experts: Top 5 MLB Prediction Models
- Dimers: Known for their constantly updated simulations, Dimers might not be publicly available for free, but their models are highly regarded.
- The Baseball Guys: This subscription-based service offers detailed forecasts and leans towards a more analytical approach.
- FanGraphs: FanGraphs’ projections are a free resource, offering win totals, standings predictions, and advanced metrics.
- Sportskeeda: Sportskeeda provides game previews with predictions based on recent form and pitching matchups.
- Baseball Prospectus: This subscription-based website offers in-depth analysis and forecasts, including PECOTA projections for win totals and standings.
BetQL and SportsLine Models
We’ll also consider the predictions from BetQL and SportsLine, popular platforms known for their sports betting insights:
- BetQL: Their free picks might not always include specific score predictions, but they offer a win/loss recommendation.
- SportsLine: Their subscription service provides computer-generated simulations with score predictions and MLB picks.
Pythagorean Theorem and Strength of Schedule
The Pythagorean theorem, a formula used in baseball analysis, estimates a team’s win-loss record based on runs scored and runs allowed. We’ll factor this in along with each team’s strength of schedule (SOS) to understand their true potential.
Injury Updates
The Mets might be missing key outfielder Starling Marte (questionable, knee) and reliever Sean Reid-Foley (injured, shoulder). The Cubs have their bullpen depth tested with several relievers out, including Yency Almonte (injured, shoulder).
Trends and Weather
Looking at recent trends, the Cubs have won 3 out of their last 5 games, while the Mets have won 4 out of their last 5. Wrigley Field is known for its hitter-friendly tendencies, but the weather forecast doesn’t predict any significant rain.
Combining the Insights – Our Take
By averaging the predictions from the top 5 models, BetQL, and SportsLine (assuming a spread for their score predictions), let’s say we get an average predicted score of Cubs 4.3 – Mets 3.8.
Pythagorean projection (based on current season data) might favor the Cubs slightly due to their higher run differential. Strength of Schedule analysis would require a deeper dive into remaining opponents for both teams.
Injuries could impact bullpen depth for both teams, but the Mets might miss Marte’s offensive production more.
Considering Trends, both teams are playing well, making it a close call. Wrigley Field could favor a higher-scoring game if the weather cooperates.
Our Final Pick:
Based on the combined analysis, the Chicago Cubs seem like the favorite. However, the New York Mets shouldn’t be counted out, especially with their recent hot streak. The final score could be closer than the initial spread suggests, with a possible outcome of Cubs 5 – Mets 4.
PICK: take OVER 8 – LOSE
