The Milwaukee Bucks travel to face the Minnesota Timberwolves on February 12, 2025, in what promises to be an intense matchup between two top teams. With key injuries and recent roster changes, one player stands out as an excellent betting target: Damian Lillard.
For this game, the best player prop bet is Damian Lillard Over 40.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (PRA) (-120).
Why This Bet Stands Out
Lillard has been playing at an elite level in recent games, and with Giannis Antetokounmpo sidelined due to a calf injury, his role has expanded even further. Without Giannis and Khris Middleton (recently traded), Lillard has taken over as the primary scorer and facilitator for the Bucks.
In seven games without Antetokounmpo this season, Lillard has averaged:
- 33.6 points
- 9.7 assists
- 5.1 rebounds
That’s a combined 48.4 PRA, far exceeding the 40.5 line set by sportsbooks. He has cleared this mark in every single one of those games.
Key Factors Supporting This Bet
1. Increased Usage Rate
Lillard’s usage rate has jumped 5.9 percentage points to 34.5% without Giannis, making him the clear focal point of the Bucks’ offense. His assist rate has also risen 8.1 percentage points to 39.2%, as he’s taken on a larger playmaking role.
More opportunities mean more production, and in a matchup against the Timberwolves, he will be relied upon even more.
2. Recent Performance Trends
Lillard has been on a tear in his last five games:
- vs. Golden State Warriors: 38 points, 7 assists, 5 rebounds (50 PRA)
- vs. Philadelphia 76ers: 43 points, 8 assists, 7 rebounds (58 PRA)
- vs. Atlanta Hawks: 23 points, 10 assists, 9 rebounds (42 PRA)
- vs. Charlotte Hornets: 29 points, 12 assists, 4 rebounds (45 PRA)
- vs. Memphis Grizzlies: 15 points, 9 assists, 3 rebounds (27 PRA)
Even in a down game (vs. Memphis), Lillard came close to hitting 40 PRA, despite poor shooting. His recent form strongly supports the over.
3. Matchup Breakdown: Bucks vs. Timberwolves
The Timberwolves boast the NBA’s best defense this season, but their one weakness is defending elite point guards. Minnesota allows the 8th-most points per game to opposing point guards, and Lillard’s elite shooting and deep range can exploit this.
Additionally, with Brook Lopez and Bobby Portis spacing the floor, the Timberwolves won’t be able to pack the paint against Lillard as they would against a traditional Bucks offense. This gives him more opportunities to score and distribute effectively.
Betting Market Analysis
- Current Line: Over 40.5 PRA (-120)
- Implied Probability: 54.5%
- Historical Performance vs. Minnesota: Lillard has averaged 44.3 PRA in his last five games vs. the Timberwolves.
- Betting Trends: Heavy action is coming in on Lillard’s over, with sportsbooks adjusting lines upward from an opening of 39.5 PRA to 40.5.
This movement indicates sharp money backing the over, reinforcing the value of this bet.
Projected Game Script
This game is expected to be closely contested, meaning Lillard will likely play his full minutes. With the Bucks lacking offensive firepower beyond Lillard, he will be asked to carry a heavy workload for all four quarters.
Given the matchup, expected minutes, and role, Lillard should comfortably clear 40.5 PRA.
Confidence Level: 80%
Considering all factors, this bet has a strong +EV (positive expected value). There’s a high likelihood Lillard surpasses this mark, barring foul trouble or an injury.
