Bears and Wildcats Ready for Action as Baylor Looks to Rebound and ACU Seeks Upset Glory

Date: Monday, December 9, 2024

Time: 9:00 PM ET

Arena: Foster Pavillion Waco, Texas

The excitement is palpable as the Abilene Christian Wildcats prepare to face off against the Baylor Bears in what promises to be a thrilling NCAA basketball showdown. This matchup features two teams with distinct styles and recent performances that could lead to an unpredictable outcome. With Baylor ranked 15th nationally and coming off a tough loss to UConn, they’ll be looking to bounce back. Meanwhile, Abilene Christian is riding a wave of momentum after securing back-to-back victories. Let’s dive into the details that make this game a must-watch!

Baylor Bears

The Bears enter this game with a record of 5-3, having faced a challenging schedule that included matchups against top-tier teams. Their last outing was a narrow 76-72 loss to UConn, where they showed resilience but ultimately fell short. Despite the defeat, Baylor showcased their offensive firepower, led by Robert Wright III, who scored 22 points and shot an impressive 64% from the field. Another standout was Norchad Omier, who contributed 14 points and seven rebounds, demonstrating his all-around game.

Baylor has been strong at home, boasting a perfect record of 3-0 on their court this season. They have averaged an impressive 83.4 points per game, ranking them among the top offenses in the nation. However, their defense has shown some vulnerabilities, allowing opponents to score an average of 73.4 points per game.

Abilene Christian Wildcats

On the other hand, the Wildcats come into this game with a record of 6-3 and are riding high after defeating New Mexico State 78-70 in their last game. Key players like Hunter Jack Madden, who scored 24 points in that victory, and Quion Williams, who added 20 points and eight rebounds, have been pivotal in their recent success. ACU has shown they can compete, especially when their starters outscore opponents significantly.

Abilene Christian has been effective on both ends of the floor, averaging about 78.2 points per game while allowing opponents to score around 70.7 points per game. They’ve demonstrated solid rebounding skills, ranking among the best in limiting second-chance opportunities for their opponents.

Key Statistics

Offensive Efficiency

• Baylor Bears
  • Points per Game: 83.4
  • Effective Field Goal Percentage: 55.2%
  • Three-Point Shooting: 38% (averaging 10.1 threes per game)
• Abilene Christian Wildcats
  • Points per Game: 78.2
  • Effective Field Goal Percentage: 48.5%
  • Three-Point Shooting: 32% (averaging only 5.3 threes per game)

Defensive Efficiency

• Baylor allows an average of 73.4 points per game, which could be a concern against a team like ACU that can score efficiently.
• Abilene Christian has limited opponents to an average of about 70.7 points per game, showcasing their defensive capabilities.

Rebounding

Baylor struggles with rebounding compared to ACU, which ranks higher in limiting offensive boards and securing defensive rebounds.

Notable Injuries

Injuries could play a significant role in this matchup:

• For Baylor, star guard Jeremy Roach is doubtful due to concussion protocol after leaving the UConn game early.
• Freshman standout VJ Edgecombe is also day-to-day with a hamstring injury, which could affect Baylor’s depth and overall performance.

Abilene Christian appears healthy heading into this contest, which could give them an edge if they can capitalize on any weaknesses in Baylor’s lineup.

Why Pick Abilene Christian +24

Despite being significant underdogs with a spread currently set at +24, there are compelling reasons to consider betting on Abilene Christian:

1. Recent Form and Momentum: ACU has won three of their last four games and is gaining confidence after strong performances against quality opponents.
2. Defensive Strengths: The Wildcats have proven capable of limiting scoring opportunities for their adversaries, especially in rebounding where they rank among the best in preventing second-chance points.
3. Baylor’s Inconsistencies: The Bears have struggled to cover large spreads recently, failing to do so in four straight games leading up to this matchup.
4. Potential for Competitive Play: Given ACU’s ability to score effectively and their solid defensive metrics, they could keep the game closer than expected.
5. Statistical Models Support: Using five successful NCAA basketball prediction models (KenPom, Sagarin Ratings, Bart Torvik, Haslametrics, and BPI), we see projections that suggest a final score closer than what the spread indicates:
   • KenPom predicts Baylor will win by around 18 points.
   • Sagarin ratings suggest a similar margin.
   • Bart Torvik gives Baylor a slight edge but shows ACU covering.
   • Haslametrics aligns with these predictions.
   • BPI also indicates a competitive scoreline favoring Baylor but not by more than 20.

Predicted Scores

Based on these models:

• KenPom: Baylor 85 – ACU 67
• Sagarin: Baylor 82 – ACU 66
• Bart Torvik: Baylor 81 – ACU 65
• Haslametrics: Baylor 80 – ACU 62
• BPI: Baylor 79 – ACU 61

Conclusion

As we gear up for this exciting clash between Abilene Christian and Baylor, it’s clear that while Baylor holds many advantages on paper—especially with their offensive firepower—Abilene Christian has shown resilience and capability that cannot be overlooked. With key injuries potentially affecting Baylor’s performance and ACU riding momentum from recent victories, taking Abilene Christian +24 presents an intriguing opportunity for bettors looking for value against the spread.

This matchup is not just another game; it’s an opportunity for ACU to showcase its growth against one of college basketball’s elite programs while giving fans plenty of reasons to tune in for what promises to be an engaging contest.

PICK: Abilene Christian +24 LOSE