Baseball fans, get ready for an exciting night as the Tampa Bay Rays travel to Houston to take on the Astros at Daikin Park. Both teams are on hot streaks and have plenty of talent on the field, making this one of the most anticipated games of the week. Whether you’re a die-hard follower or just looking for the best information before making your pick, this guide will walk you through everything you need to know in clear, simple language.

Game Overview: What to Expect Tonight

The Houston Astros and Tampa Bay Rays are both in the thick of the playoff race as we head into the summer months. The Astros have been nearly unbeatable at home lately, while the Rays are coming off a stretch of games where their pitching and hitting have both shined. Tonight’s game is the first of a four-game series, and both teams will be eager to set the tone early.

Date: Thursday, May 29, 2025
Time: 8:10 PM ET
Location: Daikin Park, Houston, TX
Current Odds: Astros -115, Rays -104
Total Runs Line: 8

The odds are very close, which tells us that the experts expect a tight contest. The total runs line is set at 8, meaning the expectation is for a moderate to high-scoring game.

Starting Pitchers: Who’s On the Mound?

Shane Baz (Tampa Bay Rays)

Shane Baz is a talented right-handed pitcher with a record of 4 wins and 3 losses this season. His earned run average (ERA) is 4.94, which means he’s giving up almost five runs for every nine innings he pitches. Baz has a WHIP (walks plus hits per inning pitched) of 1.39, so he allows a little more than one baserunner per inning on average. He strikes out more than twice as many batters as he walks, which is solid, but not elite.

Baz started the season strong but has had a rough month of May. In his last four starts before his most recent game, he struggled to keep runs off the board. However, in his last outing against the Toronto Blue Jays, he looked much better, allowing only one run in almost six innings. This bounce-back performance could give him some confidence, but his overall numbers suggest he’s still vulnerable, especially when facing a powerful lineup like Houston’s.

Ryan Gusto (Houston Astros)

Ryan Gusto is a rookie right-hander who has shown flashes of potential but is still finding his way in the big leagues. He has a 3-2 record, a 4.58 ERA, and a WHIP of 1.53, which means he allows even more baserunners than Baz. Gusto has started six games and pitched in relief six times, so he’s still adjusting to being a full-time starter.

Gusto’s main challenge has been his command. When he falls behind in the count, hitters are able to take advantage and hit the ball hard. He relies heavily on his fastball, and if he can’t locate it, he can get into trouble quickly. Still, he’s managed to keep his team in games, and the Astros’ strong bullpen often helps him out when he runs into trouble.

Recent Team Performance: Momentum Matters

Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays have been playing some of their best baseball lately. They’ve won 7 out of their last 8 games, including two shutouts in their last four. This means their pitching staff has been able to completely shut down the opposing team’s offense more than once recently. Offensively, Brandon Lowe has been a big part of their success, riding an impressive 11-game hitting streak. The Rays are finding ways to score runs and keep their opponents off the board, which is a great combination.

Their bullpen (the group of relief pitchers who come in after the starter) has been reliable, helping the Rays hold onto leads late in games. While not the very best in the league, they are above average and have proven they can get the job done when it matters.

Houston Astros

The Astros are also red-hot. They’ve won 8 of their last 10 games and 17 of their last 22 at home. Their offense has been on fire, scoring lots of runs against teams like the Oakland Athletics. Houston’s bullpen is one of the best in baseball, which means if they have a lead late, they usually keep it.

Playing at Daikin Park gives the Astros an extra boost, as they’ve been especially tough to beat at home this season. Their lineup is deep, with multiple players capable of hitting home runs or driving in runs in key situations.

Injury Updates: Who’s In and Who’s Out?

Injuries can have a big impact on any game, especially when key players are missing.

Astros:

Yordan Alvarez and Christian Walker, two important hitters, are both expected to play tonight after dealing with minor hand injuries.
The Astros are missing some key pitchers like Ronel Blanco and Cristian Javier, but their offense is mostly at full strength.

Rays:

Shane McClanahan, one of their best pitchers, is still out with a triceps injury.
Most of the rest of the roster is healthy and ready to go for tonight’s game.

Having Alvarez and Walker in the lineup is a big boost for Houston, while the Rays are doing their best to manage without McClanahan.

Head-to-Head and Trends: What History Tells Us

Looking at how these teams have played against each other and in similar situations can help us understand what might happen tonight.

The Astros have been outstanding at home, winning 17 of their last 22 games in Houston.
The Rays have been solid as underdogs and have a good record when Baz is on the mound.
Both teams have shown they can score runs and win close games, so expect a tight contest.

Why Over 8 Total Runs Is the Smart Pick

There are several reasons why tonight’s game is likely to see more than 8 runs scored:

Pitching Struggles: Both Baz and Gusto have ERAs close to 5.00, which means they both give up runs regularly. Baz has allowed 10 home runs this season, and Gusto has trouble when he falls behind in the count.
Hot Offenses: The Astros have scored 16 runs in their last two games, and the Rays have been consistent at the plate with players like Brandon Lowe leading the way.
Bullpen Usage: Both teams have used their bullpens a lot lately. If either starter gets knocked out early, middle relievers could allow even more runs.
Full Lineups: With Alvarez and Walker set to play for Houston, and the Rays’ lineup mostly healthy, both teams are at nearly full strength offensively.
Model Support: Multiple advanced prediction models project the total runs to be at or just above 8, making the over a logical choice.

Predicted Scores from Five Leading Models

To give you the most accurate forecast, here are the predicted scores from five respected baseball prediction models:

Model	Rays Score	Astros Score	Total Runs
Dimers AI	4	5	9
Action Network Model	4	5	9
Covers Consensus	3	5	8
PickDawgz Projection	4	5	9
BetMGM Simulation	4	5	9

As you can see, most models expect the total to reach or slightly exceed 8 runs, supporting the idea that this will be a higher-scoring game.

Final Thoughts: What’s the Best Pick?

Tonight’s game between the Rays and Astros is set up to be a fun, competitive matchup with plenty of action. Both teams are playing well, and both have the ability to score runs in bunches. The Astros’ strong home record and deep bullpen give them a slight edge, but the real value is in the total runs.

Final Predicted Score:
Astros 5, Rays 4

This score is supported by several leading models and fits with the recent form of both teams. With two starters who have struggled at times and two lineups that are producing, the over 8 total runs is the most logical and well-supported choice for tonight’s game.

PICK: over 8 total runs WIN